Egypt has become China’s largest grain exporter! Why was the ancient Roman granary so short of food?

Not long ago, my country’s customs announced China’s grain import and export data for 2022.

Among them, my country’s total grain imports are approximately 147 million tons, including soybeans, corn, wheat, barley, sorghum, rice, etc. Soybeans import the largest amount, reaching 91.08 million tons, while corn imports are 20.62 million tons. , wheat was 9.96 million tons, and rice was 6.19 million tons.

What is worth collecting is that the import quantities of the three major staple foods (corn, wheat and rice) have exceeded quotas.

On the other hand, my country exported about 3.22 million tons of grain last year, and among the many export regions, two regions are highly collected: one is North Korea and the other is Egypt.

There was news at the beginning of this year that due to the impact of the epidemic and weather disasters, North Korea experienced a shortage of fertilizers, and the country was facing a serious food crisis. North Korea had signed an agreement with several Chinese trading companies to Buy Chinese rice in bulk.

This news triggered a huge collection in the domestic market. We have analyzed it before, so we won’t go into details here.

The main point is Egypt.

Among the many destinations for my country’s grain exports last year, Egypt ranked first.

As we all know, there are two major reasons for the risk of food crisis:

First, the global epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have caused global food prices to rise and the pressure on food imports to increase;

Second, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has increased expectations for a reduction in global grain production, and countries are more willing to stock up on grain and have increased grain imports.

Last year, the United Nations World Food Program released a report showing that as of June last year, about 345 million people in 82 countries were facing severe food insecurity, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%.

Among them, approximately 50 million people in 45 countries are only one step away from famine.

Among them is Egypt.

But Egypt’s food shortage is not that simple, there are deeper reasons.

As one of the four ancient civilizations, Egypt was the granary of the Mediterranean during the Roman era. There is a saying, "Egypt's food can feed half of Rome." This shows that Egypt played an important role in the Roman Empire system. .

Egypt also relied on its developed agriculture to become increasingly powerful, and it once became a powerful country.

But today, Egypt is getting further and further away from the word "breadbasket", and has even become a country with "high rates of poverty and hunger".

Today, Egypt's food self-sufficiency rate is only half, and it needs to import a large amount of food every year to meet domestic demand. Even so, 30% of the population is still hungry.

Why is the once "Granary of Ancient Rome" so short of food now?

Chinese culture pays attention to "heaven, earth, and people", and the development of all things is inseparable from these three.

First of all, let’s talk about “heaven”, which means weather and climate.

Egypt’s climate has undergone major changes. In the early days, Egypt’s climate was relatively humid, and the area of ??the Nile Oasis was wider than it is now. However, with climate changes, most of Egypt is now located in the tropics. The desert climate has very low annual precipitation and high evaporation. The lack of water conservancy is extremely detrimental to agricultural production.

Secondly, the area of ??agricultural land is also shrinking.

96% of the land in Egypt is covered by desert, leaving only 4% for use.

Not all of the remaining 4% of land is arable land. As cities continue to develop, the land continues to be developed and destroyed.

For example, between 1952 and 1980, approximately 203,000 hectares of agricultural land were converted to urban land, resulting in a significant reduction in agricultural land in the Nile Delta.

Today, land development in Egypt has almost reached its limit.

Third, population explosion and improper policies.

The population of ancient Egypt was not large, and the agricultural conditions at that time could fully support it.

But starting from the 19th century, Egypt's population began to gradually increase. By the mid-to-late 20th century, the population surged.

Data show that in the 1990s, Egypt's population was about 35 million, and by around 2010, Egypt's population reached 83 million, more than doubling its population in 30 years.

By 2022, Egypt’s population will exceed 100 million.

On the other hand, Egypt’s agricultural policy changes have also hindered the development of agriculture to a certain extent.

Egypt’s fragmented small-scale peasant economy cannot concentrate on production, and its policy of focusing on industry and neglecting agriculture has led to a long-term shortage of funds for agricultural development and even a gradual decline. Therefore, Egypt’s agricultural infrastructure has always been relatively backward.

Land input is insufficient and output is naturally insufficient. Faced with a growing population, Egypt has to import a large amount of food every year, and over-reliance on imports has caused Egyptian agriculture to increasingly lose flexibility and initiative. , further restricting agricultural development.

With such a fragile agricultural system, coupled with the global epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and extreme weather, the risk of a food crisis has risen sharply.

It can be seen that agriculture is the foundation of national development. Especially in a turbulent situation, agriculture is not only related to social stability, but also related to the independence of the country.