Now that the weather in Northeast China is getting lower, will there be a cold winter this year?

Yes To tell the truth, according to the past meteorological experience and the current low temperature data in the north, combined with the news released by the China Climate Center some time ago that a weak to moderate intensity La Nina event will be formed this winter, this winter is really likely to be a cold winter.

Because La Nina event itself is a cold winter signal, and in recent years, under the influence of climate warming, extreme weather continues to be staged, so the probability of a cold winter is very high. But before the official arrival of winter, all the answers and predictions can only be reference, because meteorological system prediction is a very complicated science. The longer the prediction time, the lower the accuracy, which even the most professional meteorological prediction center in the world can't be 100% sure, so the answer to the question is often more probability.

Here, I don't want to go into details about the specific forming factors and influencing results of La Ni? a event. Interested readers can look it up on their own, but only emphasize that La Ni? a event has had a very obvious impact on China's meteorology. Here is a classic case. I believe most people still remember the scene of the snowstorm in southern China in 2008. At that time, not only the provinces along the Yangtze River suffered from cooling and freezing disasters, but also Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangdong, Guangxi and other provinces were seriously affected.

After the disaster, according to the analysis of the meteorological department, it can be concluded that the main cause of the snow disaster in South China in 2008 was La Nina event. Although La Nina incident has never been the only inducing factor, it has played more than 80% role, so we have reason to believe that this year is also a high probability of winter.

Of course, compared with the weather forecast in previous years, there are more uncertainties in the current weather forecast. In the past, there were floods in the south and droughts in the north, but this year, it seems that the map is upside down. There are frequent floods in the north, but the rainfall in the south decreases. This is obviously different from the meteorological performance of La Nina correcting El Ni? o in previous times, so what kind of meteorological temperature La Nina will form this winter can only be seen. Personally, I think it's a cold winter.