Why is the current weather forecast so unreliable?

The weather system is not only a problem of the atmosphere, but also a comprehensive system, which is the result of the interaction of five fields. Human understanding of the laws of atmospheric motion is still very limited, and little is known about the interaction of the five circles. In addition, under the background of global warming, the probability and frequency of extreme weather and climate events increase. The influence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and local topography can make the weather change more mysterious, and the influence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau can even change the global weather and climate.

1. How is the weather forecast made?

The first is to collect meteorological data

From the ground to the sky, from the land to the sea.

All-round and multi-level observation of atmospheric changes.

Then the computer will collect data.

Perform processing and operations.

Get weather charts, numerical forecast charts and other products.

Then professionals are interested in data.

Analyze and make a preliminary forecast.

There are two common methods:

One is the traditional weather method.

It is to analyze various meteorological elements on the weather map.

numerical weather forecast

The other is numerical forecasting method.

It is calculated by a computer.

Because the motion of the atmosphere follows some known physical laws.

The state of atmospheric motion can be written as a set of partial differential equations.

Solve the variable value of the time-varying equation.

According to this, the future state of the atmosphere can be obtained.

2. Why is the weather forecast often unreliable?

The weather system is not just a matter of the atmosphere.

This is an integrated system.

It is the result of the interaction of five circles.

Human understanding of the laws of atmospheric motion is still very limited.

Little is known about the interaction of the five circles.

In addition, in the context of global warming,

The probability and frequency of extreme weather and climate events have increased.

This increases the original atmospheric system.

New weather characteristics and climate change law

However, the weather system in China has special and complicated factors.

It also lies in adding a "roof of the world"

That is, the influence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The local topography can make the weather change more mysterious.

The influence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is even great enough to change the global weather and climate.

3. Why should the weather be reported in the weather forecast?

When we listen to the weather forecast

There is always a column devoted to the weather at that time.

Some people think it has little to do with the local weather.

But the meteorological station and the meteorological team in the school

But I am very concerned about this weather report.

European weather situation map

It can not only make meteorologists know about the large-scale weather conditions at that time.

It can also predict the upcoming air pressure system in this area.

It is helpful to make a good weather forecast in this area.

satellite cloud picture

Because the weather system has this moving rule.

Therefore, it is necessary to make a more correct weather forecast.

In addition to mastering local meteorological data

It is also necessary to master the distribution of large-scale weather systems.

And its strengthening, weakening and moving conditions.