Is there no weather forecast for Yancheng tornado? How can there be so many casualties?

The tornado in Yancheng is so harmful, why didn't our meteorological bureau forecast it in advance? This is a question that many netizens have about the Meteorological Bureau. But it must be said that so far, even in developed countries, the occurrence of tornadoes is difficult to predict.

Matt Daniel, a famous American meteorologist, published an article on 20 15, saying that it is not impossible to accurately predict tornadoes in the future, but at least at present, human beings have not mastered the skills because there are too many variables to be added in the tornado prediction algorithm. Matt Daniel said that the best prospect of bad weather is to fully understand the climate and conduct scientific research on the local climate.

Because strong convective weather is a small-scale system compared with typhoon, cold air and other weather systems, tornado is small in scale, strong in intensity and short in life cycle, which brings great difficulties to forecast. Kang Zhiming, deputy director of Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, said in an interview that tornadoes are not like typhoons. Their time range is very small, and they happen suddenly. From emergence to extinction, it usually takes only a few minutes to tens of minutes, and it affects local areas, and the effective forecast time is very short.

Meteorologists say that tornadoes, hail and thunderstorms are all products of sudden weather, and their precursors are very similar. When the strong convective cumulonimbus cloud that may produce these weather phenomena strikes, it is difficult to judge whether this cloud will bring hail or tornado. "Even if instruments are on standby at the scene, they are often destroyed by tornadoes."

The staff of the meteorological department said that the area from Yizheng Dayi in Yangzhou to Ganquan in Hanjiang has been hit by strong winds, and the meteorological department initially suspected that it was a tornado. "Because the radar shows that there is a strong squall line near the incident, there must be strong convective weather, but it is very difficult to judge whether it is a tornado."

Because tornadoes often come from strong convective weather such as thunderstorms, squall lines, cyclones and typhoons, general forecasts are mainly based on strong convective weather. Even the United States, which has studied the formation and early warning of tornadoes for more than half a century, can only provide thunderstorm forecast for one or two days at present.

With regard to tornado forecast, China Weather Network pointed out that it is necessary to further build a small and medium-scale disastrous weather monitoring and early warning system, improve the monitoring ability of Doppler radar and tornado inversion ability, introduce and develop numerical models to improve the accuracy of numerical forecast, and do a good job in fine monitoring and accurate forecast of tornadoes to achieve the purpose of disaster reduction.

-Part of this article was edited and published by Nai Ge You Reflective Clothing.