Will the winter in 2020 be a cold winter? Why is the winter in 2020 particularly cold?

Have you felt the chill of National Day this year? Although the weather is getting warmer now, there are still many friends wondering whether it is cold or warm this winter. Should we buy more down jackets to prepare?

2020 may be a cold winter.

At present, NOAA has announced the formation of La Nina phenomenon, and it is estimated that there is a 75% probability that it will last for the whole winter, so it has a great impact on winter. Unless this is also a short-lived La Nina phenomenon, it will not affect it until it disappears. But judging from the current situation, La Nina phenomenon may not disappear so soon. Today's Nio3.4 index is close to -0.6 degrees, so the trend is very strong.

Generally speaking, due to the influence of La Nina phenomenon, there may be a cold winter in China. However, from the perspective of global warming, the possibility of a warm winter reversal is still relatively small for the time being, that is, the possibility of a warm winter is still relatively large. Therefore, we should always pay attention to the development of La Nina phenomenon, which is still declining, which is equivalent to an enhanced signal.

Because there are many climatic factors, it is impossible to determine who will appear in the cold winter or warm winter. So far, it can be said that no country in the world can accurately tell whether it is a cold winter or a warm winter. Just don't get me wrong.

Will the winter in 2020 be a cold winter?

Three hard conditions:

Eight planets meet in 2020-202 1 year! Astronomical conditions meet 1976- 1977 and 1892- 1893 (the coldest weather in winter was recorded in Shanghai this year).

2020-202 1 The maximum declination angle of the moon is plus or minus 25 degrees.

From the winter solstice in 2020, the earth will be 940,000 kilometers away from the normal orbit of the sun. The radius of revolution of the earth reaches the maximum.

Three soft conditions:

In 2020, the extremely low sunspot lasted for the third year.

2020 may be the year of La Nina.

PDO will return to the cold period in 2020. According to the current analysis of the earth's air and sea, the probability of the formation of PDO cold phase and La Nina event next year is very high, which should be paid attention to.

But I'm not sure now. The concept of cold winter or warm winter seems to be the average temperature. There may be more extreme weather now.

Conditions for the formation of a cold winter in 2020

The so-called El Nino refers to the sea water near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. If the temperature is high, there will be an El Nino phenomenon for a period of time, and if the temperature is 0.5 degrees lower, there will be a La Nina phenomenon. Before the El Ni? o phenomenon subsided, scientists showed new worries, because the sea temperature near the Pacific Ocean was already very low, exceeding 0.5 degrees, which lasted for several months. If this state continues, La Nina has been basically determined. If La Nina comes, what serious impact will it bring to our country?

Everyone has seen the power of El Nino. The most obvious feature of our country is the increase of rainy weather this year, which has led to flooding in many areas. However, the winter became unusually warm and the precipitation decreased significantly. If La Nina does come, the winter precipitation in China will increase, which means that this winter will be colder than usual. In 2008, China experienced a La Nina phenomenon, and the number of ice and snow disasters in China increased, all of which were influenced by La Nina. This year's La Nina is likely to reappear before winter. Does this mean that this winter will also become extremely cold? What serious impact will it bring to China? Will there be a major snowstorm?

La Nina is scary, but this year's situation is quite special, and it won't be too cold, because the global environment is now global warming, the overall temperature has obviously increased, and the winter is warmer. After La Nina appears, the temperature in winter will still be higher, but the temperature difference will not be so great, which has played a certain role in alleviating the warm winter caused by global warming.

Even in winter, the arrival of La Nina will increase precipitation, so there will be large-scale snowfall in many places. After the snowfall increases, it will make people feel colder in winter. Even if there is no winter phenomenon, the increase of rain will still lead to the decrease of temperature.

The European Meteorological Office said that La Nina was basically confirmed in the second half of this year. The authorities have also entered a state of monitoring and early warning. Be wary of La Nina's influence on the local area. The temperature near the Pacific Ocean changes rapidly, and the cooling has sounded the alarm for it.

La Nina and El Nino

According to the latest weather information, this winter may be colder than in previous years, with more rain and snow, and the winter is wet and cold.

In the past few days, with the infiltration of a large number of cold air southward, the central and eastern regions of China, especially the southern region, began to experience large-scale cooling. This is the most obvious and largest cold air in the second half of the year. Under the fierce attack of cold air in the wild, the average temperature along the Yangtze River in South China has dropped in the last five days. According to the abnormal temperature monitoring data of National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau, its average temperature has deviated from the average level all the year round. In some places, the temperature is as low as 4 degrees or even higher, indicating that the low temperature is very serious.

Moreover, because the subtropical high has just receded, cold air collided head-on with warm and humid water vapor when it went south, resulting in a series of autumn rainfall in southern China. Whether it is Jianghuai, Jiangnan or the southeast of China, it is basically inevitable and it has been raining continuously. It has been raining heavily in some areas for a long time. There is a "plum rain" momentum, but it is already mid-September, and it should be changed to "autumn plum rain".

In addition, it has snowed in the south. According to news media reports, on September 17, Shennongjia Scenic Area in Hubei Province ushered in the first sleet since this autumn. Judging from the videos taken by netizens, there are almost no falling snow particles in the sky. The staff of the scenic spot said that the snowfall was sporadic, with low intensity and short time, and there was no snow on the ground. It snows a little early for Shennongjia, because in contrast, the first snow in the second half of 20 19 occurred at 201910. Snowfall in 2020 is two months earlier than last year.