The risk has suddenly increased! The price of pigs is "early warning", the price of corn eggs is "too worrying", and the price of sheep is falling back.

# Corn price trend # In 222, the pig market was reshuffled, and the pig market went up all the way. Inadvertently, pork once again returned to more than 2 yuan a catty. However, the pig price fluctuated and fell recently, and the market has a further "deterioration" trend.

After a wave of rising corn, some enterprises broke through the 1.5 yuan mark, but the market fluctuated in the past two days. The egg market has dropped at a high level. Although there is limited room for further decline, it is still a bit "worrying".

Although the price of sheep rebounded, the market was blocked, and it really became a "sheep turned into a sheep".

First, the pig price fluctuated downward, and the official announcement of the meat price fell

The pig market entered the middle of November, and the market began to decline. The pig price returned from 14.2 yuan/kg to the current 12.18 yuan/kg; A catty has dropped by about 2 yuan.

With the price of pigs falling all the way, the price of pork has been lowered one after another. In some areas, the price of pork has dropped by 3 or 4 yuan. According to enthusiastic netizens, the mainstream retail price of pork in various places is between 19-23 yuan/kg.

The pork price data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also kept falling. The latest data showed that the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 33.3 yuan/kg, down .9% from yesterday. Beef is 76.9 yuan/kg, down .4% from yesterday; Mutton 67.25 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; Eggs are 12.25 yuan/kg, down .2% from yesterday.

According to the official news, the price of pigs and meat rose simultaneously in September and October, and the price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose by over 4%. The excessive price of meat entered the first-level warning. Through a series of measures such as putting in reserve meat and guiding the slaughter, the prices of pork and live pigs fell simultaneously. From November 7 to 11, the price ratio of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China dropped to 3-4%.

Although the price of pork has been reduced, it is still in the second warning stage of excessive rise. At present, the retail price of pork in most areas is still above 2 yuan/kg.

Let's take a look at the latest pig price:

Although the downward trend of the whole hog market in all provinces in China has been suspended, it is still in the pattern of "more declines and less rises", and the ratio of price increase in all provinces and cities is "3 rises, 1 falls and 13 draws".

The market only rose in Jiangsu, Heilongjiang and Gansu provinces, with the increase ranging from 1-2 cents. The decline areas were mainly distributed in the southwest, as well as Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shanghai and other places, with the decrease ranging from 1-3 cents. See the attached table for the specific quotation:

Analysis of the reasons for the decline in pig prices:

First, as mentioned above, the government invested a large amount of pork in reserve and instructed big pigs.

Second, influenced by the inflated pork price, although it is in the peak season of pork consumption, after pork surpassed 2 yuan, the consumption dropped significantly, which promoted the fall of meat price and forced the pig price to fall.

Third, the slaughter enterprises have recently seen a decline in the quantity of pork with white stripes, and the production and processing capacity has declined. Some enterprises have bought pigs at a reduced price and obtained relatively stable profits.

From the analysis of the future trend of the market, my personal point of view is that there will be no big mistake in the pig price before the Spring Festival, and the general direction should be a strong shock trend, which may be a "three-in and two-out" market. It is still very likely that the expected pig price will reach 14 yuan, but the core logic is that the pork consumption before the Spring Festival will "hold up" the pig price.

Second, the corn stagflation falls, and the risk cannot be ignored

In recent days, the rising momentum of the corn market has changed, and the downside risk has been repeatedly suggested.

in terms of market performance, the resistance to the increase of corn prices is relatively large, and the overall trend of the corn market is weak.

The latest corn quotation shows that many corn enterprises in Shandong have lowered their purchase prices: Shandong Fukuan fell by 1 point, and the quotation was 1.45 yuan/kg; Hengren Industry and Trade fell by 1 point, 1.47 yuan/kg; Chengwu land fell .5 points, 1.435 yuan/kg; Chengwu osawa fell .5 points, 1.445 yuan/kg; Dongping Xiangrui fell 1.5 points to 1.43 yuan/kg.

Only the price of Kailu Yuwang in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, in the three northeastern provinces and one district rose by 1 point, 1.355 yuan/kg.

The main reasons for the downward adjustment of corn prices today are as follows:

First, the arrival of corn in Shandong Province has increased. Today, the number of vehicles arriving at the front door of corn enterprises in Shandong Province is 739, 348 more than yesterday, almost doubling, which has led some enterprises to lower their prices.

Second, due to the recent continuous increase in corn prices in three northeastern provinces and one region, the trade is getting more and more worried, and people are afraid of "going back to the old road in 221", and the high-priced acquisition will lose money and earn money, making the acquisition more cautious.

Third, it is reported that a large number of imported corn will come to the port one after another in the near future, and the superimposed corn futures will plummet, which will put some market pressure on the corn market.

regarding the market outlook, the corn market as a whole is optimistic, but it does not rule out that there will be a staged decline in December, mainly due to the financial pressure of consumption and return of goods at the end of the year, and there will be a grain selling peak.

However, from the current relationship between supply and demand of corn, the support of purchasing corn at high prices in grain depots around the country, and the demand for replenishing grain reserves, and the emergence of the international grain crisis, the market price of corn should not be too pessimistic.

3. Eggs retreat at a high level, and the market outlook is cautious

Recently, the egg market has been weak, with big drops and small drops appearing alternately. Anyway, it has been falling, and the price of eggs has also dropped from more than 6 yuan per catty to 5.6 yuan/catty.

The latest egg market shows that eggs in eight provinces in North China, East China and South China have fallen by .5-.2 yuan.

Among them, the egg price in Northeast China is at a new low of 4.98-5.7 yuan/kg, and Liaoning is the first region to fall below the 5 yuan mark; The mainstream price in North China is 5.2-5.83 yuan/kg; 5.3-6.72 yuan/kg in East China; 5.4-6.14 yuan/kg in Central China; 5.4-6.6 yuan/kg in Northwest China.

It is totally expected that the egg price will continue to weaken. As early as before the National Day, when the egg price rose, it was suggested that the egg price would drop significantly during October-December.

There are three main logics:

First, after the National Day, according to the convention, the consumption of eggs will enter a gradual weakening market, and the price of eggs will also have a greater or lesser decline process.

Second, due to the continuous increase in egg prices this year, since May, all kinds of breeding subjects have increased the number of supplementary columns, which will lead to a continuous increase in the number of newly produced eggs after October, and the increase in production capacity will be unfavorable to egg prices.

Third, due to the inflated egg price in the early stage, the mainstream egg price once rose to more than 6 yuan a catty, and even in some areas it reached more than 7 yuan's money, which had a direct impact on residents' consumption. Even now, the retail price of eggs in most areas is still above 6 yuan, making it difficult for residents to consume, and the consumption decreased, which has a negative pressure on egg prices.

As for the market outlook of eggs, my personal opinion is that the current national average price of eggs is 5.55 yuan/kg, and there will be a drop of at least .5-1. yuan, which will not fall before the Spring Festival and will return to below 5 yuan in the second quarter of next year.

Fourth, the price of cattle and sheep has just improved, and the market has met with resistance again

Since September and October, the price of sheep has continuously stopped falling and stabilized, and there has been a slight increase in some areas. The average price of fattening cattle has increased by about 1-1.5 yuan per catty, and the mainstream price is 17.5-18.5 yuan per catty. On average, each cow has increased by more than 1 yuan.

The price of sheep and cattle increased slightly, with an increase of about 1-2 yuan. A fattened sheep weighing 12kg increased by 15-2 yuan, and lambs increased well, with an average price difference of 1-15 yuan.

however, in recent days, the sheep price market has changed, and it can't go up. In some areas, there is a situation that there is no market for sheep. It's really like playing the game of "sheep has a sheep". When you get to the second level, you can't break through, which means you can't go up if you go up.

The latest sheep price shows: 65 yuan, a male lamb weighing 3 kg in Qixian County, Shanxi Province; 3 kg female 5 yuan/sheep, 12. yuan/kg ewes, 13. yuan/kg rams and 68 lambs of 3 kg Yuncheng; 52 yuan/sheep of 3 kg in Dazhou, Sichuan; Shaanxi Xianyang 12 kg ram 18.5 yuan/kg; 16. yuan/kg for 12 kg of fattening sheep in Huaibei, Anhui; Huainan Shouxian fattened Hu sheep 14.2 yuan/kg; There are 78 female lambs and 65 male lambs weighing about 4 kg.

The reasons for the stagflation of sheep prices are as follows:

First, because of the recent cold weather, some farmers began to eliminate some ewes. These ewes are low in price, but they also serve as a production capacity supply market, which leads to loose supply in stages and puts some pressure on sheep prices.

Second, although the price of sheep is only a dozen yuan a catty, the current price of mutton is still not low, and the retail price is rarely lower than that of 4 yuan, even reaching a catty in 5 yuan in some areas. In addition, due to masks and economic factors this year, the income of some residents has shrunk, their consumption power has declined, and the volume of mutton goods has declined, which has a negative impact on the price of mutton.

as for the market outlook, I personally feel that with the arrival of deep winter, mutton consumption will be improved, and the number of eliminated sheep will drop, and the price of sheep is still expected to rise before the Spring Festival.

dear friends, what are the prices of pork, eggs and mutton in your place? How much is a catty? Please warm-hearted netizens to bask in the sun for the reference of netizens all over the country.