Why is the weather forecast so accurate?

Modern weather forecasting systems are mainly divided into ground meteorological observation stations, ground meteorological radar systems, upper atmospheric meteorological observation, meteorological satellites and data analysis centers.

The ground weather station is mainly responsible for collecting meteorological data such as air pressure, temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed, precipitation, snow depth, sunshine time, cloud cover and air quality. On the one hand, these data are used to summarize the atmospheric activity information collected by other means for real-time weather forecast, on the other hand, they form a database as valuable information for long-term research on climate change.

The ground weather radar system emits electromagnetic waves with centimeter wavelength to the clouds in the airspace through radar facilities established in various places, and observes the formation of condensation nuclei, ice crystals, raindrops or snowflakes in the clouds within hundreds of kilometers. The data obtained by radar and the measurement results of ground observation stations are summarized and analyzed to realize the forecast of rain and snow weather.

Meteorological observation in the upper atmosphere is mainly realized by releasing radiosondes and arranging wind profiler radar. The former can be regarded as the high-altitude version of the ground weather station, which can collect meteorological data at an altitude of about 30 kilometers. The latter can be regarded as the twin brother of ground rain and snow weather radar, which mainly measures information such as wind speed and direction at high altitude.

Meteorological satellites are located at the top of this hierarchical observation network from low to high, and are mainly responsible for monitoring meteorological changes in large areas, especially disastrous meteorological events such as typhoons.

In addition, the changing trend of clouds in a few days, the temperature distribution of seawater in a large range, and the early warning and monitoring of forest fires are just tricks of meteorological satellites. The migration of agricultural pests, the monitoring of volcanic activity and the abnormal change of seawater tide level are also inevitable.

The information processing center with supercomputer as the core can be called the brain of the whole meteorological monitoring and forecasting network. Countless trivial information collected from observation facilities and devices at all levels can be easily simulated by supercomputer operation and complex dynamic process under the comprehensive action of many factors. Supercomputers know everything from the accurate weather forecast at a certain time and place of the day to the relative amount of precipitation in the whole season and the average value of previous years nationwide.

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