Can Russia and Syria only defend passively?

"Within three weeks, American planes crashed one after another, six planes crashed, and 16 people were killed" and "American troops continued to send more troops to the Mediterranean. Can Russia and Syria only defend passively? The two military commentators we invited today are Professor Cheng Hanping from the School of International Relations of the National University of Defense Technology and Professor zhou yuan from the School of Political Science of the National University of Defense. They will explain the following questions in detail for you.

Professor Cheng Hanping, School of International Relations, National University of Defense Technology, PLA

Professor zhou yuan, School of Political Science, National Defence University of PLA.

Shi Ning, host of military intelligence observation program.

When the situation in Syria suddenly became tense, intelligence showed that the United States was strengthening its military strength in the Mediterranean. In addition to deploying two destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, which is 0/00 km away from the Russian naval base in Syria, Truman also went to the Middle East to join the Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group. The European Aviation Safety Organization also issued an early warning to remind pilots in the eastern Mediterranean that missiles may carry out air strikes against Syria in the next 72 hours. The air defense system of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has announced that it has sounded a battle alarm, and the Syrian army has entered a 72-hour combat readiness state. Whether war is imminent or not, let's pay attention to it together.

Judging from the current military deployment of the United States and Russia in the Mediterranean, does the US military have the upper hand? What is the ability to deploy US warships and military aircraft to launch strikes against Syria?

Professor zhou yuan: "If Truman of the United States sails to the Middle East, then it and Roosevelt there will form a two-carrier battle group. You mentioned this just now, so an aircraft carrier battle group in the United States can reach about 6,500 people in terms of the number of troops, usually including an aircraft carrier, 1-2 guided missile cruiser and 3-6 guided missile destroyer. Two carrier battle groups, one * * *, including nearly 200 fighters of various types. Judging from the current overall situation, the US military deployment actually has the upper hand in Syria. Because in addition to the dual carrier battle group at sea, the US military has several military bases available in Syria and deployed thousands of troops. So as long as the United States is willing to launch a medium-sized local war against Syria, it will be a piece of cake for the United States. Of course, the United States cannot ignore Russia's face. Then the real existence of Russian military forces is also a major worry for the US military to use force against Syria. Therefore, judging from the current deployment of the US military, it is very likely to carry out a precise strike limited to missile attacks. As far as ground operations are concerned, it seems to me that the deployment of the US military is not yet in place. ? "

Us president trump has not yet decided whether to use force against Syria, and the military deployment of the us military has begun first. Does the US military have the foresight to know that the president will definitely launch a military strike against Syria?

Professor Cheng Hanping: "So for the army, for every soldier, there is a saying that we should not fight unprepared, that is to say, under any circumstances, I must be prepared, of course, for all actions in advance." Then once the battle mobilization order or this battle order is issued, he can launch military action at the first time. At present, the preparation of the US military from the battlefield is first of all the deployment of troops, such as what actions the troops are prepared to launch. Second, intelligence gathering and analysis. Third, public opinion propaganda. Fourth, the battlefield preset, fifth, the aftermath plan and so on, these are all things it has to prepare, that is, whether to fight or not, it has to prepare. Once the president gives the war order, you can take action at any time. At the same time, he took this opportunity to put pressure on his opponent. Who is his opponent? The Syrian government, Iran, and Russia behind it are all trying to put pressure on them to deter their opponents. Especially for the Syrian people, forcing him to defect, that is to say, he has a centrifugal tendency, not standing with the government, but drawing a clear line. Then it seems that you want to attack the Bashar government, not ordinary people. I will draw a line for you right away. Then this point is very clear in the past wars of western countries, that is, try not to expand your opponents and opposites too much and isolate a small part, that is, put pressure on your opponents in this way. "

The wrecked Super Hornet belongs to VFA-2 13 Black Lion Squadron?

American crew members have been killed in the past three weeks.

In the last three weeks, six planes of the US military * * * crashed, including 1 F/A- 18F fighter plane, 1 F- 16 fighter plane, 1 AV-8B vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, 1 hh-. * * * caused 16 deaths. For the continuous plane crashes and deaths, US Defense Secretary Matisse warned US aviation officers not to talk about the problem of poor aircraft maintenance. Why have the recent flight accidents of the US military soared?

Whether the flight accident rate of a national air force can be controlled and what causes the flight accident rate to soar will be introduced to you first. ?

Professor zhou yuan: "Since the birth of the airplane, flight accidents have been accompanied by flight training. How to control the occurrence of flight accidents has become the core issue that the air forces of all countries, including civil aviation departments, are most concerned about. Then in this respect, the air forces of all countries, including the civil aviation departments, spare no effort. To control the flight accident rate and ensure flight safety, we must control various factors that affect flight safety, which is the key to control the flight accident rate. On the whole, various factors that cause flight accidents can be divided into two categories. One is subjective or human factors. For example, the pilot's mind does not pay attention to fatigue driving, fails to maintain a good mental state when flying, or flies with emotions. In addition, the aircraft support personnel failed to carefully maintain the aircraft in all directions before taking off, so these human factors may cause aircraft accidents, and these human factors can actually be controlled. The most important thing is to establish and improve relevant systems, and ensure that these human factors are minimized through scientific management and effective education and training mechanisms. Then the second category is objective factors, such as the aging of aircraft and accidents in the air, such as bad weather and bird impact. Then these are factors beyond people's control, and these factors are often the main aspects that cause flight accidents. Many air crashes in the world are caused by these objective factors. Then of course, some preventive measures can be taken in advance against these factors, such as accurate weather forecast and so on. In a word, the influencing factors of flight accidents are very complicated. To ensure flight safety, people need to do a good job in ensuring safety, and there is no room for slack. Although accidents are difficult to avoid, as long as we work hard, we can still minimize the frequency of air flight accidents! "

Against the background of soaring US military flight accidents, US Secretary of Defense Matisse warned US aviation officers: Don't openly talk about how bad aircraft maintenance is. Why not talk about it and discuss it when there is a problem?

Professor Cheng Hanping: "The order it gives here is not to discuss in public, which means they will definitely discuss it in private or in their professional and technical committees. I think there are three reasons why it is not allowed to be made public: first, the military needs to keep it secret, because this accident is equivalent to saying that he has uncovered an insider that many people can't understand. What's the inside story? Even improper maintenance or aging technical equipment is equivalent to exposing your own weakness, so if you expose it militarily, it is a military taboo, which can be said to be very dangerous, because you are equivalent to letting your opponent master your weakness. If you master your weakness and launch a military strike against you, then its success efficiency is very high, so I think it is still in a confidential need to prevent your weakness from being exposed to the other side. Second, we call it dirty clothes, because it reflects the loose style and discipline of the US Air Force. His disciplinary incidents are far more than two, including his vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff being involved in a sex scandal. It can be seen that the violation of discipline in the US Air Force should be the tip of the iceberg. If such a scandal is exposed, it will obviously have a devastating impact on him and the US Air Force, so this is also the reason why he refuses to discuss it. Then the third factor is the fear that it will affect the construction and development of the US Air Force from now on. We know that it is very difficult to recruit this pilot of the US Air Force. In addition to economic factors, there is another factor, that is, casualties caused by various minor incidents. It affects them. If we continue to enlarge these accidents, it is likely to affect the stability of air force pilots. Because Trump himself said that our air force is short of 1000 to 2,000 pilots. This number can be said to be not small. If such scandals continue to occur and such accidents continue to recur, it is likely that the pilot team will be unstable and more qualified pilots will not be recruited. Therefore, due to these three considerations, the US military has ordered that public discussion is not allowed, so it must be discussed internally and analyzed. In particular, a professional accident Committee will be formed to investigate, and every unit will do the same. "