Adhere to people-oriented, enhance awareness of prevention, and ensure the safety of life and property of people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang.

First, raise awareness, strive to do a good job in meteorological forecasting and early warning of geological disasters, and ensure the economic and social development of our region and the safety of people's lives and property.

Our region is one of the provinces with serious geological disasters in China, especially in flood season. Due to the influence of meteorological factors, sudden geological disasters such as collapse, landslide and debris flow occur frequently, especially in Yili River Valley. Because of its special geological environment conditions-Quaternary loess is widely distributed, thick, complex terrain and unstable high and steep slopes, many geological disasters such as collapse, landslide and debris flow often occur in flood season under the induction of snowmelt water and rainfall. According to the statistical data from 1998 to 2004, there were 392 collapses, landslides, mudslides and ground collapses of different scales in our region, resulting in 77 deaths and 30 injuries, resulting in a direct economic loss of185160,000 yuan, which directly affected the sustainable development of the national economy and social stability. Doing a good job in meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters is an important measure to minimize geological disasters and benefit the people. It can improve citizens' awareness of disaster prevention and mitigation, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of group monitoring and prevention of geological disasters; Promote the prevention and control of geological disasters by local governments at all levels; Provide technical services for land consolidation and planning, construction and safe operation of major projects. The State Council and the leaders of the Ministry of Land and Resources attached great importance to this work. On June 12, 2004, Vice Premier Zeng pointed out in the national report on meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters jointly carried out by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the China Meteorological Bureau: "The Ministry of Land and Resources and the China Meteorological Bureau should cooperate closely, constantly sum up experience, improve the forecast and early warning system, and minimize the losses caused by geological disasters." The State Council's instructions fully affirmed the importance of this work and put forward general requirements for future work. In the flood season of 2004, the comrades of the Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of the Department of Land and Resources of the Autonomous Region and the Environmental Meteorological Center of the Meteorological Bureau of the Autonomous Region overcame many difficulties such as tight time, heavy tasks and great technical difficulties in the spirit of being highly responsible for the safety of people's lives and property, which enabled the prediction and early warning of geological disasters in our region to be carried out rapidly, which was well received by the Ministry of Land and Resources and established a good reputation in society.

Second, the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters started quickly and achieved remarkable results.

In August, 2003, according to the spirit of the document Notice of the Ministry of Land and Resources and the China Meteorological Bureau on Jointly Carrying out Meteorological Forecast and Early Warning of Geological Disasters in Flood Season (Guo Tu Zi Fa [2003] No.229), the Department of Land and Resources of the Autonomous Region and the Meteorological Bureau immediately decided that the Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of the Department of Land and Resources and the Environmental Meteorological Center of the Meteorological Bureau should undertake the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters, and set about compiling the meteorological forecast and early warning work plan of geological disasters in our region. From September 15 to September 3 1 day, 2003, the Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring of the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Environmental Meteorological Center of the Meteorological Bureau jointly carried out the trial operation of meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters. On the basis of trial operation, in 2004, the Department of Land and Resources and the Meteorological Bureau of the Autonomous Region officially launched the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters, and determined the "Implementation Plan for the Issuance of Meteorological Forecast and Early Warning of Geological Disasters in Xinjiang", which made it clear that the meteorological forecast and early warning period of geological disasters in Xinjiang was from April to September every year, and the meteorological forecast and early warning information of geological disasters was officially released to Xinjiang on April 5, 2004. In the process of preparing for this work, everyone took the initiative to forget their work, and with full work enthusiasm and high work efficiency, they quickly promoted the development of this work, and the start-up work was completed successfully and quickly.

In the flood season of 2004, the meteorological early warning and prediction of geological disasters lasted 179 days, and * * * made the forecast and early warning products 179 (times). Among them, from April 5 to May 14, 2004, the meteorological forecast and early warning information of geological disasters was mainly issued by fax to the land and resources bureau of the prefecture (city) where the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters reached Grade III or above, and was issued 5 1 (times); On May 15, the meteorological forecast and early warning information of geological disasters was released to the public in Xinjiang through Xinjiang Radio Station and Xinjiang professional meteorological website, and it was released on September 30 128 (times). In addition, in view of the warming and precipitation weather process in northern Xinjiang in March 2004, the first short-term geological disaster forecast was issued to the land and resources bureaus of Yili, Changji, Bortala and Tacheng, and the first geological disaster warning was issued to the land and resources bureau of Yili on April 9.

The release of meteorological forecast and early warning information of geological disasters has improved the pertinence and timeliness of geological disaster group monitoring and prevention, and achieved good disaster prevention effect. According to statistics, in 2004, the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters was issued at level 3 or above 179 (times), and 36 geological disasters occurred within the forecast and early warning range, with the accuracy rate of forecast area of 27.9%. Through successful prediction, the possible casualties and property losses of111983,700 yuan were avoided in 2004.

On the basis of the official operation of the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters at the autonomous region level, the Department of Land and Resources issued a notice in June 2004, requesting the land and resources departments of all localities (prefectures and cities), especially those in areas with frequent geological disasters, to actively strengthen cooperation with local competent meteorological departments and carry out meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters in the region as soon as possible. A lot of work has also been done in various places, laying the foundation for the official meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters this year.

Third, further improve the technical level of geological disaster prediction and early warning, and make the work more solid and detailed.

As we all know, the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters is still a worldwide problem. Xinjiang has a vast territory, diverse landforms, undulating mountains, uneven terrain, complex geological structure and strong neotectonic movement. The formation mechanism, inducing factors, development and distribution of geological disasters such as landslides and debris flows are still not very clear. Coupled with the complex and changeable climatic conditions, it is objectively determined that the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters is a technically difficult work.

In 2004, the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters in our region also exposed the following problems: first, the basic research and facilities are weak, and the technical level of forecast and early warning and the construction of station network need to be improved urgently; Second, the feedback of forecasting and early warning information is not timely; Third, the forecasting and early warning process and information release channels need to be further improved; Fourth, the coordination and cooperation between forecasting and early warning information release and other disaster prevention measures needs to be strengthened. These problems require these comrades engaged in this work to continue to study hard, constantly improve their technical level, and strive to do all the work more realistically and meticulously.

(1) Organize the study of scientific knowledge of meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters. Meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters is a brand-new technical field. The administrative departments of land and resources of all prefectures and cities should cooperate closely with the meteorological departments at the same level, and organize business units to quickly study and apply the theories and methods of meteorological forecasting and early warning of geological disasters and the automatic technology of forecasting and early warning.

(2) Standardize the working procedures of geological disaster prediction and early warning. It is necessary to formulate and improve the technical requirements, standards and specifications for the collection, submission and processing of geological disaster monitoring data, so as to provide a more comprehensive and solid basis for the meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters.

(3) Establish an effective geological disaster prediction and early warning information feedback mechanism as soon as possible, and establish a geological disaster feedback information database in flood season. All localities should, in accordance with the relevant requirements, pay close attention to the situation in the relevant areas after the release of forecast and early warning information, and timely feedback the occurrence of geological disasters in the forecast and early warning areas to the information release unit.

(4) Further straighten out the relationship between business units of geological disaster prediction and early warning at all levels, strengthen the relationship between business units at all levels, and gradually establish a network system of geological disaster monitoring and early warning services to provide all-round technical support for the administrative departments of land and resources at all levels in the prevention and management of geological disasters.

(5) Strengthen the publicity, education and training of laws and regulations on geological disasters and basic disaster prevention knowledge. The Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Geological Disasters came into effect on March 6, 2004. All localities should continue to carry out training on laws and regulations, actively carry out publicity and education on basic knowledge of geological disasters and disaster prevention knowledge among the broad masses in geological disaster-prone areas, and further raise awareness of disaster prevention, which will also help meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters to play a better disaster prevention effect.

(6) All localities should try their best to solve the problem of broadcasting meteorological forecast and geological disaster early warning information by TV stations. At the same time, through TV stations, websites, radio, text messages and other means, expand the spread of meteorological forecast and early warning information of geological disasters. In particular, we should try our best to make remote farmers and herdsmen in geological disaster-prone areas get timely forecasting and early warning and disaster prevention information.

(Summary of the speech at the symposium on meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters in the autonomous region, originally published in Xinjiang Land and Resources, No.2, 2005)