(3) The price of mineral products will fluctuate upward.

Basic judgment: The era of cheap resources has passed, and the cost of economic development is increasing. Affected by comprehensive factors such as economic improvement, strong demand and excess liquidity in emerging countries, the prices of major mineral products fluctuated upward.

20 1 1 year, the world's major economies (the United States, Europe, China, Japan, etc. ) will struggle in their respective economic trajectories and policies after the impact of the financial crisis. The escalating debt crisis has increasingly brought substantial impact to the core European countries (France and Germany). It is unsustainable for the Federal Reserve to rely on zero-interest funds from more than 6,543.8+billion depositors to give blood transfusions to financial institutions and contribute to the American economy for free. China is facing a series of contradictions, such as difficult economic restructuring, slow industrial upgrading, inflation, excess liquidity, ineffective real estate regulation and uneven income distribution. The economic trend of 20 1 1 is bound to be "low before and high after". The complexity of the global economy has greatly increased the risk of long-term investment, and short-term investment and speculation will gradually become the mainstream. At the same time, trade protectionism in major resource countries is on the rise, and it is expected that the prices of major mineral products will continue to fluctuate and rise.

According to the monthly year-on-year and month-on-month trend analysis of mineral product price index in recent years, the price of mineral products will further increase in 20 1 1 year. It is predicted that the month-on-month price index of mineral products of 20 1 1 is mostly above zero (Figure 58), indicating that the price of mineral products will rise.

Figure 58 20 1 1 year mineral product price forecast

20 1 1 In the first quarter and the first half of the year, due to the extreme weather around the world, the prices of mineral products, especially the prices of bulk mineral products such as iron ore and coal, will rise sharply temporarily.

Column 15 global natural disasters will further push up the price of mineral products.

La Nina is raging all over the world. Because of this, extreme rainstorms and floods have recently broken out in many parts of the world, and Queensland, Australia, has suffered floods, and the export shipping of coal and raw materials has been hit hard. The continuous rainstorm in Serrana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, may continue to push up the raw material prices of local commodities. International coal prices, iron ore prices, especially coking coal prices continue to rise. 201111At the beginning of October, several major coking coal listed companies successively raised coking coal prices, and domestic coke prices also led other types of coal.

20 10,10 At the end of February, Australia, the world's largest coal exporter, was ravaged by floods, and the once-in-50-year rainfall hindered the coal production and transportation of coal producers including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto in Queensland, Australia. Australia accounts for about two-thirds of the global coking coal trade. Due to floods, 75% of coal mines in Queensland, which accounts for about a quarter of Australia's national output, cannot operate.

China is the main export destination of Australian coal, and the Pacific dry bulk route from Australia to China has always been one of the key businesses of shipowners. The paralysis of mines caused many cargo ships to dock at the anchorage outside the port. The heavy rain washed away the roads and tracks in the mining area, which had a serious impact on mining. The flood has forced at least six coal miners to invoke the force majeure clause to inform multinational steel manufacturers that due to unpredictable reasons such as natural disasters, they cannot fulfill the coal supply contract as scheduled, including BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, Rio Tinto, the third largest miner, and Anglo American Resources Group, Australia's fourth largest miner. It is estimated that the total annual production capacity of mines that have invoked or will invoke the force majeure clause to postpone the performance of the contract exceeds 654.38 billion tons, equivalent to 40% of the global market supply. China imported a lot of coal in a short time. In order to maintain the pre-holiday inventory demand, Southern Power Plant temporarily increased the purchase of domestic coal in the north, and the number of ships transporting coal from the north to the south increased to a certain extent.

It is said that the bad weather will spread to the Pibala area rich in iron ore, which will definitely affect the production and supply of iron ore and raise its price.

Coal: rising steadily. Affected by floods in Australia, coal prices will rise in the first half of 20 1 1. However, due to the abundant inventory of many enterprises in the fourth quarter of 20 10, coal prices will not rise too much. With the gradual recovery of Australian coal mine production capacity, the global coal demand can basically meet, and the coal price will fall back, but it will be higher than that at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the annual increase will be around 15%. Because the development cost of global commodities is rising, the demand is optimistic and the liquidity will continue. The relationship between coal and electricity in China has not been straightened out. Coal is the focus of strict policy monitoring and adjustment, and the price of coal is greatly influenced by policy regulation. In addition, due to the high inflation level, CLSA raised the contract coal price forecast of China in 201~ 2012 by 2.0% ~ 4.0%, and the spot coal price forecast by 4.0% ~ 12%.

Crude oil: continue to rise. It is expected that the price of crude oil will fluctuate around 20 1 1 USD/barrel. On 20 10, 10, the national development and reform commission issued a "price increase order" for oil, and the oil price reached a record high, and the price adjustment exceeded the expectations of market participants. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by two forces, one is economic recovery, and the other is international capital speculation. Internationally, the speculative atmosphere in the oil market is still strong. The Federal Reserve launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, and the unemployment rate in the United States has remained above 9% for several months. The problem of economic recovery is still not small, and the falling dollar index is still difficult to be optimistic. International capital is looking for a safe haven, and oil and other raw materials are its important goals.

With the sustained economic recovery, the global demand for oil will continue to increase. 20 10, 1 1, the leading economic index of the United States achieved the fifth consecutive month of growth; In September, the oil consumption in the United States increased the most since June 2004 165438+ 10, and the average daily consumption increased by 910.3 million barrels. Under the condition of constant economic stimulus, the American economy is better at 20 1 1 than 20 10. For emerging economies such as China, the strong economic growth trend has been established, and it is not a problem to maintain it at 20 1 1, which will directly lead to an increase in crude oil demand.

Copper: Continue to rise. Although there are many unstable factors in the 20 1 1 global economy, the copper market will still be in short supply, and copper prices are expected to rise further. Top copper mines in the 1980s, such as Escondida in Chile, have passed the peak period, and the grade of copper ore is declining day by day, with no increase or even decrease in output. In 20 10, the total output of the world's four listed copper enterprises-Freeport Macmorland, BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Rio Tinto decreased compared with the previous year. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said that the output in 20 10 is expected to be roughly the same as that in the previous year. Moreover, most people think that the new copper mines put into operation in the next few years can't even meet the moderate demand growth. On the other hand, because the copper price has remained at a low level for 20 years, little investment has been made in the exploration and exploitation of new mines. As a copper mine may take 65,438+05 years from initial investment to production, mining enterprises cannot cope with the demand growth in the next four to five years.

Aluminum: steady and rising. The supply and demand of 20 1 1 aluminum market will be stable, and the trend of aluminum market is expected to be similar to 20 10. In the second quarter, stimulated by the traditional consumption peak season, aluminum factory production reduction and liquidity, aluminum prices will reach the peak of the year, which may exceed $2,500/ton. In the second half of the year, due to the recovery of global aluminum production capacity, the problem of overcapacity will once again curb the price increase. First of all, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has risen. In the second half of 20 10, the state stepped up efforts to eliminate backward production capacity. Since June 1, the national development and reform commission has raised the differential electricity price standard of electrolytic aluminum industry, which has brought great pressure on the production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. At present, the domestic production cost of electrolytic aluminum has reached the level of 1.6 million ~ 1.65 million yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are generally struggling on the edge of the cost line all the year round. Secondly, the growth of global aluminum demand will remain stable. The recovery of primary aluminum consumption in the United States is slow, and the recovery of automobile, truck and trailer markets has driven aluminum consumption in the transportation industry. The European market is driven by aluminum consumption in Germany, and consumption growth continues to be strong. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China has raised the construction target of 20 1 1 affordable housing to100000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4%, which will offset the shrinking demand for primary aluminum in the commercial housing market. In addition, as copper prices hit a record high, downstream enterprises were urged to replace copper with aluminum.

Iron ore: high adjustment. With the first decline of iron ore imports in 20 10, 2010 is likely to be the "turning point" of the global iron ore supply market. China's demand for foreign iron ore tends to be stable, and the prices of steel and iron ore are upside down, which will greatly restrain the further increase of iron ore prices. At the same time, the production capacity of major iron ore enterprises in the world is continuously released, and the supply of iron ore will gradually increase. The sources of imported iron ore in China are diversified. Large domestic steel enterprises such as WISCO have formed "China price" with small iron ore suppliers in Venezuela, Brazil and other countries, and Iranian ore imports have greatly increased. On the other hand, the demand in China is still strong, so it is impossible for iron ore prices to drop significantly in the short term.

Column 16 steel and iron ore prices are upside down

In sharp contrast to the iron ore price, the steel price of 20 10 is like riding a roller coaster. After nearly three months of rising prices in the first quarter, steel prices began to fall in mid-April due to a sharp drop in demand, and continued to decline for nine weeks. All kinds of steel prices have been basically adjusted by more than 20%, some varieties have been sold below the production cost, and steel prices have fallen to the price at the end of last year. Some steel mills have reached the edge of loss, and their powerful pricing power has begun to loosen, so they have to lower their ex-factory prices with the market. The continuous downward adjustment of the ex-factory price of steel inhibits the release of downstream demand and indirectly weakens consumer confidence. Steel mills have started a new round of overhaul upsurge. In May, some small and medium-sized steel mills in Hebei and other places stopped production one after another. In June, North China 19 steel mills plan to carry out overhaul in the near future, while some equipment of Baosteel, WISCO and other large steel mills will be overhauled in the second half of the year.

The sharp contrast between iron ore market and steel market reflects the abnormality of iron ore market. The three major iron ore producers used China's short-term high demand for iron ore to control the sharp rise in iron ore prices, which seriously affected the healthy operation of the international iron ore market. With the increase of shipping cost, the pressure of imported iron ore on domestic steel producers is increasing, and the decline of domestic demand for steel will inevitably lead to the decrease of imported iron ore.

Gold: steady and rising. 20 1 1 At the beginning of the year, the favorable data of the US economy were released one after another, which diluted the panic of investors. After a slight increase on the first trading day of 20 1 1, the price of gold plunged 3.8% for four consecutive trading days. However, with the further recovery of 20 1 1 American economy, inflation expectations will heat up, so inflationary pressure will take over the baton of safe-haven demand and become the main driving force for the gold price to hit a new high. The Fed's ultra-low interest rate policy is still difficult to change in the short term. With the increasing flood of liquidity, the dollar, euro and other banknotes continue to depreciate, and gold as a "hard currency" will continue to be optimistic. The European debt crisis is getting worse. After Ireland, the sovereign credit problems of Portugal, Spain and other countries have once again become the focus of market attention. 20 1 1 The unstable geopolitical situation will also become a potential driving force for the rise of gold. The Iranian nuclear issue and the situation on the Korean Peninsula are full of variables. Once the contradiction intensifies, it will stimulate a large number of safe-haven funds to flood into the gold market. In addition, in August of 20 10, the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Gold Market, which clarified the future development direction of the gold market. The opinions of the six ministries linked the future development of the gold market with the overall improvement of the competitiveness of China's financial market, and clearly stated that "the future development of the gold market should serve the overall development of China's gold industry, based on improving the competitiveness of China's financial market, and play an important role in improving the financial market". Six ministries jointly issued a document, which had a great impact on the domestic and foreign markets. China factor will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in the long-term trend of gold prices in the future.

Cement: steady and declining. The price of cement is greatly influenced by the macro policy of energy saving and emission reduction. If 20 1 1 continues the strict policy of energy saving and emission reduction, the cement price will rise further. If the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction is relaxed, the first quarter will be off-season and the price of cement will fall. In the second quarter, a large number of affordable housing projects began to be launched, which made the demand rise. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be room for price increase from April to June.

Potassium: Wave forward. The new contract price of potash fertilizer signed by international potash suppliers with Southeast Asia, Europe and other countries is 430 ~ 450 USD/ton, and most orders are shipped in the first quarter; However, due to the unclear price trend of potash fertilizer in the later period of China market, the negotiation of big contract between international potash suppliers and China has not been completed. 20 1 1 favorable factors of potash fertilizer market: first, domestic agricultural stocks are low, so potash fertilizer procurement will increase after the year, and the market price of potash fertilizer is expected to rise after the year; Second, the big contract price of potash fertilizer is around $400/ton, which will be a support for the market price increase. Disadvantages: First, the climatic conditions, the continuous drought in some areas such as Shandong, Henan, Anhui and other places will inevitably reduce the amount of chemical fertilizer used in downstream agriculture; Second, after the resumption of supply in border trade areas, it will also form new competition for the domestic potash market price; Third, 20 1 1, the capacity of 2 million tons of potassium sulfate plant in Lop Nur will be released one after another, which will definitely impact the price; Fourthly, it is estimated that the domestic potash supply will be sufficient in 20 1 1 year, which can basically meet the normal domestic potash demand.