Help! Physics in global climate change!

Harm of global warming: the temperature rises by 65438 0℃, and the risk of death increases by 7.2%.

Source: Low Carbon Network Editor: Abortion Date: 20 12-03-07 Visits: 305 times

Global warming has become an indisputable fact, and the consequences of global warming have also been seen. The latest research found that the risk of death increased by 7.2% for every temperature increase of 65438 0℃. Global warming makes extreme low temperature and extreme high temperature appear one after another. Studies have shown that extreme weather is related to the mortality rate of residents.

Global warming is affecting human health. Recently, a research report published by a research team led by Ma Wenjun, vice president of Guangdong Public Health Research Institute, shows that there is a close relationship between temperature change and human death: "When the highest temperature of the day is greater than 29.8℃, every time the temperature rises by 65,438 0℃, the daily total number of deaths (risk) increases by 7.2%, and the risk of death from circulatory diseases increases by 9.3%".

The reporter learned that this research report is a basic research topic on the pilot project of building a low-carbon province in Guangdong organized by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission. The research conclusion shows that the vulnerability of Guangdong residents to heat wave is gradually increasing from north to south, but the adaptability of areas with more high temperature days is weak. However, the awareness rate of heat wave among residents in Guangdong Province is only 38. 1 1%, and the awareness of health hazards and risks of heat wave is insufficient, so the air conditioning penetration rate in rural areas needs to be improved.

In fact, due to global warming, "not only the number of high-temperature days increases, but also high-temperature heat waves become more frequent, and the cold damage caused by short-term severe cooling in winter is also increasing." Experts from the Provincial Meteorological Bureau said that it is extremely urgent to improve people's coping consciousness and social early warning level in the case of increasing extreme heat and extreme cold caused by climate warming.

00: daily average temperature 19.7℃, and daily maximum temperature is 29.8℃

Ma Wenjun told reporters, "In recent 50 years, the annual average surface temperature in China has increased by1.65,438+0℃. Guangdong Province is an important province in China. Under the background of global and China climate change, the status of its temperature change and its impact on people's health have not been fully understood. Studying and discussing the influence of temperature change on residents' health can provide scientific basis for provinces and cities to develop low-carbon economy and reduce the burden of diseases caused by climate change.

The meteorological data in 2006-2007 were compared with the daily death toll in Ma Wenjun, and the time series was analyzed. The results show that "the daily maximum temperature has a V-shaped correlation with the daily total number of deaths": when the temperature is the lowest and the temperature is the highest, the mortality rate also increases obviously, reflecting the correlation between cold wave and heat wave on the health of urban residents. The research shows that the most suitable daily maximum temperature in subtropical cities is 29.8℃. When the maximum temperature is higher than 29.8℃, the total number of daily deaths will increase by 7.2% for every 65438 0℃ increase in temperature.

In order to quantitatively analyze the influence of temperature, the research group also divided the temperature into two periods: hot period (above 29.8℃) and cold period (below 29.8℃), and then applied a general linear model to fit the relationship between temperature and daily deaths in different periods.

00, when the temperature is higher than 29.8℃, the death risk of circulatory system diseases will increase by 9.3% for every 65438 0℃ increase in temperature. However, death from respiratory diseases is sensitive to cold. When the temperature is lower than 29.8℃, the death direction of respiratory diseases will increase by 3.65438 0% every time the daily maximum temperature drops by 65438 0℃.

In addition to the most suitable daily maximum temperature, Ma Wenjun told reporters that he also studied the most suitable "inflection point" of the daily average temperature in southern cities, and obtained a similar trend by analyzing the relationship between the temperature and the number of deaths from 2006 to 2009. The daily average temperature and the total number of daily deaths in southern cities show a "U" shape. The most suitable daily average temperature in the city is 19.7℃. When the temperature is higher than 19.7℃, the daily total death risk increases by 3.0% for every increase of 1℃. When the average daily temperature does not exceed 19.7℃, the total daily death risk will decrease by 3.3% for every increase of 1℃.