Analyze the reasons for the unusually cold climate in China in the winter of 20 1 1?

Under the background that global warming has been accepted by more and more people in recent years, the extremely cold weather since 20 1 1 winter has puzzled many people.

Experts have basically reached a consensus on the causes of this extremely cold weather. Nalis, a spokesman for the World Meteorological Organization, said in Geneva on the 4th that the severe cold weather sweeping Europe was caused by Siberian high-pressure air mass. He said that the Siberian high-pressure air mass prevented the warm air from moving westward, causing the temperature in Europe to plummet. In the past few days, cold air from the north and warm and humid air from the Mediterranean have converged over southeastern Europe, bringing a lot of snowfall to this area.

Lu Longhua, a researcher at China Institute of Meteorological Science, also explained from a technical point of view: In 20 1 1 year, the Arctic "oscillation" index is negative, that is, the pressure in the Arctic is higher than that outside the Arctic, so the cold air in the Arctic spreads outside the Arctic, leading to severe cold weather in Europe and East Asia.

However, meteorologists have great differences on the trend of future climate change, and there are two completely different judgments: "the earth continues to warm" and "entering the Little Ice Age". In this regard, the authoritative meteorologists interviewed by the reporter also talked about their own views.

Many meteorologists, such as Wang Qiyi, senior engineer of National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau, believe that the extreme cold weather in Europe and Asia does not mean that the global warming trend has changed. On the contrary, global warming is the deep-seated reason for this extremely cold weather. Wang Qiwei said that due to global warming, especially the significant warming of the Arctic, the melting of Arctic sea ice caused the elevation of the Arctic altitude field, which led to the recent spread of cold air from the Arctic to the middle and high latitudes.

Wang Qiwei said that the time scale of global warming should not only look at a few years, but at least look at the average change in 30 years. From 197 1 to 2000, we can see that global warming is certain, rising by 0. 19 degrees Celsius every decade, but the trajectory of temperature rise will not be a straight line, but will fluctuate, and occasionally individual areas will get cold in the middle. Experts believe that the extremely cold weather in Europe and Asia is an individual accidental phenomenon and cannot be a weather vane to judge the long-term climate cooling.

However, due to the extremely cold weather, many people still have doubts about the statement of global warming from the intuitive feeling, while some meteorologists have proved their disapproval of the statement of "global warming" from a professional perspective.

Wang Bin, a researcher in lasg and a professor in Tsinghua University, studied the natural changes of the global average surface temperature from 10 to 30 years and from 50 years to 100 years. It was found that although the global temperature showed an upward trend on the surface in recent years, as far as the natural law of temperature changes is concerned, the trend was downward. When these two trends acted at the same time, the cooling trend was slightly higher than the warming trend. "From my personal research, the temperature will go down in the next 50 years to 100."

But Wang Bin doesn't agree with the saying that "the Little Ice Age is coming". "Our research results show that the temperature drop of the earth will be very small in the next 30 years, and it is impossible to enter the Little Ice Age," he said.