What impact will the general rainstorm and flood have on the stock and futures markets?

Weather factors directly affect agricultural production, upstream and downstream transportation and construction. According to market analysis, the rainstorm has a significant impact on the supply end of black varieties such as rebar, which leads to changes in the futures market, relatively limited impact on agricultural products and differentiation of chemical products, among which polypropylene PP has a certain boosting effect.

The domestic futures market is mixed. Most of the black series rose, with iron ore rising by more than 2% and wire rod rising by more than1%; The trend of chemical products is divided, with PVC rising by nearly 3%, plastics and glass rising by more than 2%, ethylene glycol falling by nearly 2%, and fuel oil and methanol falling by more than 1%. In addition, most basic metals rose, and Shanghai nickel rose by more than1%; Precious metals all rose; Agricultural products are mixed, with eggs rising more than 1% and soybean oil falling more than 1%.

Extended data:

Investment strategies will also be adjusted in extreme weather.

The impact of heavy rainfall on the commodity market is mainly reflected in the demand side. Heavy rain will not affect the total demand but will affect the rhythm, and the impact on the production end is relatively small. Short-term oversupply will lead to an increase in commodity inventory, which in turn will suppress spot prices.

Specific to the variety, the continuous rainstorm will affect the construction site, which will suppress the demand for building materials such as rebar and cement. "As can be seen from the data, the operating rate of cement plants and the apparent demand for rebar have dropped to the level of last year.

However, construction projects will not disappear because of heavy rain. The heavy rain only delayed the demand. After the rainy season, the demand for catching up with work still exists, and the demand in the later period may rebound more steeply than in previous years.

In terms of investment strategy, the intertemporal trading of short-term rebar futures can better express the company's views on the recent oversupply of the market and the improvement of long-term supply and demand. If steel mills are affected by the decline in demand and start further production reduction and maintenance, there will be downward pressure on the raw material side. In the medium term, when the rainy season ends and demand starts to pick up, the company tends to choose varieties with large basis difference.