Weather of livestock and poultry industry

Introduction 65438+ halfway through February, entering the closing period in 2022! The domestic consumer market has entered the traditional peak season, but this year's peak season collapsed and various agricultural products markets were "weak". The prices of pigs, eggs, meat and poultry fluctuated downward, and the soybean meal market fell sharply!

So what happened in the market? The specific market analysis is as follows:

Live pig market: In 65438+February, the price of live pigs "rose first and then fell". At the beginning of the month, the slaughter plan of the group pig enterprises has not been finalized, and the slaughter is in a "gap period"! Superimposed,165438+1in late October, the price of pigs fell sharply, and the farmers were reluctant to sell them, but the arrival of cold weather boosted the bacon in the south, which the farmers expected. The price of live pigs fluctuated mainly, and the average price of live pigs was 23.438+0 yuan/kg!

However, due to the poor follow-up of the benefits of bacon in the southern market, residents showed a "cold treatment" of bacon. At that time, the backlog of big pigs transferred from other places in the south increased, and slaughter enterprises tried their best to lower prices. However, the pig enterprises in the group formed a plan to slaughter, which led to a sharp increase in slaughter sentiment and a sharp drop in pig prices under the influence of various factors. At present, the average domestic pig price has dropped to 19 438+05.

At present, the sideways adjustment in the market is rooted in the rising reluctance of retail investors in many places in the north. Due to the change of market sentiment, the supply of live pigs has decreased, and the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises has increased sharply. The price of pigs in many places in the north has risen, and the price of pigs in the south has gradually followed suit. Among them, the price of black chicken feed hovers around 18. 1~ 18.3 yuan/kg.

However, due to the collapse of favorable consumption in peak season, residents' enthusiasm for buying pork is weak, and the mood of hoarding pork is even worse, while the performance of catering and dining is bleak. The favorable bacon in the south is not as good as expected, and the increase in pig prices continues to be under pressure. However, the pressure on the supply of live pigs is still relatively high this month. The pig enterprises of the Group and Erfei are relatively large, and the market demand is weak. The pig price continues to be under pressure, and the market is at risk of further decline. Some institutions predict that the low price of this round of pigs will hover around 60.

Egg market: Compared with the short-term drop of live pig price 16.78%, the drop of egg price is weak. According to institutional data, on February 7, 65438, the price of eggs in the production and marketing market rose to a high point of 5.6~5.69 yuan/kg, but consumption did not follow up well. At present, the price of eggs is maintained at 5.33~5.47 yuan/kg. In the past two days,

On the one hand, the breeding cost is high, the market of feed and corn is hovering at a high level, and the bottom support of egg price is strong; On the other hand, the scale of newly opened laying hens rebounded slightly this month, but the performance of old hens was further highlighted. Due to the long and short factors, the number of laying hens at the breeding end is still facing the pressure of decreasing month-on-month, the egg production capacity remains low, and the inventory in the production and marketing market is low!

Therefore, affected by dual factors, the fall in egg prices is not enough! However, due to the recent obvious loosening of pork prices, pork prices in many places in the north and south of China have dropped by about 2~4 yuan/kg, which also has a certain negative effect on the current egg prices. Residents' substitution sentiment has weakened, the terminal market is not smooth, and the mask problem has gradually improved. Residents' hoarding mood has decreased, and the inventory in the terminal market consumes the demand cycle, so traders have a certain cautious replenishment mood! Therefore, the support for the increase in egg prices is weak. However, with the approaching of the end of the month and the festive atmosphere, it is expected that the price of eggs will still fluctuate and rise, and the price adjustment will remain at around 0.2~0.3 yuan/kg!

Meat and poultry market: Recently, with the sharp drop in the price of live pigs, the domestic pork price has gradually dropped. According to official information, the average wholesale price of pork in the domestic agricultural products wholesale market is 30.34 yuan/kg, which is about 1.8% higher than the previous day, while the average ex-factory price of striped pigs in designated slaughterhouses in China remains at 25.8 yuan/kg, and the price continues. According to feedback from netizens at the grassroots level, at present, pork prices in many places in the north and south have dropped to around 15 yuan/kg. The price of pork in rural markets in some parts of Northeast China has dropped to about 13 ~ 14 yuan/kg. But the price of ordinary pork in many places in the south is still 17 ~ 20 yuan/kg! However, compared with before, the price of meat is obviously loose!

Due to the lower price of pork, the price of white striped chicken goes down, the heat of market substitution consumption weakens, and pork consumption gradually picks up! However, due to the pressure of domestic masks, residents' cautious travel and lack of confidence in eating out, the market pressure of white striped chicken is increasing day by day. However, this month, the elimination ratio of laying hens has increased significantly, and the panic of some white feather broilers has intensified, and the price of domestic white feather broilers has been declining. According to institutional monitoring, the domestic price of white feather broilers has dropped to 4.2~4.3 yuan/kg. However, from some farms in Shandong, the actual prices of some farmers have declined.

The price of white feather broilers has fallen sharply, but the fattening cost has been rising, and the pressure of loss at the breeding end has dropped sharply. According to the agency's calculation, at present, the white feather broilers of farmers in some producing areas in Shandong Province are losing money around 2.5 yuan! However, the staged market demand rebound is limited, the price of broilers fluctuates at a low level, and the market prospect is still not optimistic!

Soybean meal market: After the recent short-term rebound of the domestic soybean meal market, the oil factory was forced to adjust the price due to poor delivery in the downstream market, and the domestic spot soybean meal market continued to fall! According to institutional data, at present, the domestic 43% protein soybean meal market has generally dropped by 40~ 100 yuan/ton, among which, Dalian traders quoted 4,800 yuan, down by 70 yuan/ton; Beijing Oil Factory quoted 4680 yuan, down 100 yuan/ton; Taizhou Oil Factory quoted 4600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Quanzhou Oil Factory quoted 4770 yuan/ton, down by 60 yuan/ton! The mainstream oil plants in Shandong and Jiangsu offer 4600 yuan/ton, down 80~ 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong Oil Factory quoted 4670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton!

The domestic spot soybean meal market is weak, and the spot soybean meal trading in the market is relatively deserted! On the one hand, the scale of soybean arrival in Hong Kong has been continuously accumulated this month, the operating rate of oil plants is relatively high, the inventory of soybean meal has been gradually improved, and there is a certain phenomenon of inventory accumulation in some areas. The oil factory has a strong feeling of high-priced shipment and is worried about the market outlook. On the other hand, when the end of the year comes, the livestock and poultry breeding industry has entered the stage of centralized clearing of production capacity, and the enthusiasm of the mainstream breeding end for replenishment has declined. Among them, the slaughter amount of large-weight pigs has increased significantly, and the feed-to-meat ratio of medium and low-standard pigs is low, so the market demand for replenishment is cautious!

Therefore, the soybean meal market is weak under the long and short factors. It is expected that the spot soybean meal market will continue to decline further and the current price will gradually form a consolidation trend!

Warning! The peak season collapsed, the price of pigs, eggs, meat and poultry was "weak", and the soybean meal fell miserably! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are for reference only!