"Candu" basically does not land in Shanghai. Why does magic always have an "enchantment" when it encounters a typhoon?

From 1949 to 2020, 860 typhoons landed in China, but only 9 of them landed in Shanghai. In contrast, Zhejiang, which borders Shanghai, is 5 1 time, and the coastal provinces such as Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong are far more than Shanghai.

So why is Shanghai's "typhoon barrier" so clever? In fact, it is not a mysterious force, but some geographical factors in Shanghai, which objectively make it less likely for a typhoon to land head-on.

First of all, Shanghai is at the mouth of the Yangtze River, and there are Zhoushan Islands nearby. So many islands may become obstacles to typhoon landing. Wu Rui, chief service officer of Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, explained: "Generally speaking, if it is on the sea, the typhoon can maintain a relatively stable structure. The more the terrain is complex, the less likely it is to land. Even if it lands, the intensity is not that great."

On the other hand, from the geographical position of Shanghai, Shanghai is a point between the north and the south. Generally speaking, typhoons will turn or land directly in the south of Shanghai.

In addition, the geographical area of Shanghai is relatively small. Compared with the long coastline of Zhejiang and Fujian, Shanghai is just a dot. In terms of probability, the probability of a typhoon hitting this point is very small. As long as the typhoon's path is slightly biased, it may not be in Shanghai.

This is also the reason why Candu missed Shanghai a little later. However, this does not mean that Shanghai can relax its vigilance. Even if Typhoon Candu turns around and goes on the road, there will still be heavy rainfall in Shanghai 13 to 14. The maximum hourly rainfall will reach 50~80 mm, and the daily rainfall in some areas of Pudong may exceed 250 mm, and there will be strong winds of 8 to 10 in most areas.

Typhoon path prediction is a worldwide problem. Although there are modern meteorological comprehensive detection systems and numerical prediction models and technologies, each typhoon is different and has its own characteristics. In the actual forecast, the typhoon path will be the result of the interaction of weather systems, and sometimes the weather system in the southern hemisphere will also affect the typhoon movement path in the northern hemisphere. Typhoon Wayne, like 1986, had five obvious turns, including four 180 turns. This kind of typhoon makes people dizzy, not to mention the forecast.