What will the climate be like in Hangzhou this summer?

Under the general trend of global warming day, after experiencing the second warmest winter after 195 1 year, how the next weather situation in Hangzhou will attract much attention. Today (March 23rd) is World Meteorological Day. Yesterday, provincial and municipal meteorological departments held various forums to analyze and discuss meteorological issues in order to attract public attention.

Meteorologists made a prediction after the meeting: this summer, the number of high temperature days in Hangzhou may be eased compared with previous years, but the rainy season may be prolonged and there will be more precipitation, which will seriously affect the occurrence of typhoons.

Climatic background

The past 100 was the warmest year in 1000.

Global warming, polar ecological deterioration

The theme of this year's Meteorological Day is "Polar Meteorology: Understanding the Global Impact". Polar meteorology is the study of various meteorological problems in polar regions of the earth. This theme was chosen because the polar regions have a great influence on the global climate.

Simply put, the polar region is the most important "cold storage" of the earth. The direct cause of Hangzhou's warm winter this year is the lack of cold air, which originated in the Arctic.

Under the background of global warming, the deterioration of polar ecosystem will in turn aggravate climate warming and form a vicious circle.

In 2005, the scientific observation and research published by IPCC showed that the general trend of global climate in the past 100 years was warming. The global surface temperature has risen by 0.6℃, which is the warmest in the past 1000 years.

This year's latest research report shows that in recent 100 years, due to the influence of human activities, the content of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased rapidly, and the global temperature has obviously increased by 0.74℃. In just two years, the data changes obviously, which shows that the temperature rises faster.

After climate warming, the polar ice sheet will shrink, the sea level will rise, the ozone hole over Antarctica will expand, the frozen soil will thaw, and the greenhouse gas methane will be released, which will aggravate climate warming.

Situation in Hangzhou

The annual average temperature is 16.5℃

But after 2000, it will not be below 17℃

Against this background, there was obvious warming in China in the 1920s-40s and the end of 1980s.

After the overall temperature rises, the problems are "warm winter" and "hot summer", which are hotter than cold and colder than cold. The most obvious areas of climate warming in China are northwest, north China and northeast China. Although Hangzhou is not among these three regions, the change is still obvious.

Lou Maoyuan, director of Hangzhou Meteorological Observatory, provided us with a set of data:

The annual average temperature in Hangzhou (197 1 ~ 2000)16.5℃;

From the moving average of 10 year:

195 1 ~ 1960 is16.09℃;

196 1 ~ 1970 is16.15℃;

197 1 ~ 1980 is16.24℃;

198 1 ~ 1990 is16.3℃;

20001991~16.8℃;

2001~17.683℃ in 2006,

As can be seen from the above data, before 1990s, the annual average temperature generally fluctuated between 16 ~ 16.5℃. Until 1993, the average temperature was above 17℃ for only two years, and the highest temperature was 17.2℃. But then the record was continuously broken. 1994 reaches17.6℃; 1998 reaches17.9℃; Especially after 2000, it was above 17℃ and never returned to below 17℃.

In 2006, the annual average temperature in Hangzhou exceeded 18℃ and reached 18.3℃, the highest since19,51.

weather trend

Under the influence of the recent El Nino phenomenon

Global warming, in addition to directly leading to an increase in the annual average temperature and insufficient precipitation, is one of the most obvious features of the increase in extreme weather.

For Hangzhou, summer has always been a season of "outstanding" extreme weather performance. Typhoon, high temperature, drought and flood must be prevented. According to the analysis of the provincial climate center, the El Ni? o phenomenon ended in February this year, but our province is still in its later influence. Under this premise, what will Hangzhou be like this summer?

High temperature: The average annual high temperature (above 35℃) in Hangzhou is 22.5 days. From 2003 to 2006, the days of high temperature were 50 days, 39 days, 46 days and 39 days respectively, with an average of 43.5 days in four years. This continuous high temperature has set a historical record since 1952.

According to Lou Maoyuan's analysis, it is estimated that the number of high-temperature days in Hangzhou this year is still higher than the normal average, but compared with the previous four years, it should be alleviated on the whole.

Precipitation: The average annual precipitation in Hangzhou is 1.455mm, which entered the dry season in 2003, only about two-thirds of the average rainfall in that year. It rebounded in 2006, but it was still only about 80% of the same period.

According to the analysis of the provincial climate center, from the current situation, in March this year, the precipitation in our province is expected to be more than normal 1%. From May to September, the precipitation in Wenzhou and Zhoushan may be more than normal. In most areas, including Hangzhou, the precipitation in flood season is slightly higher than normal.

Meiyu: In the previous two years, the Meiyu in Hangzhou was too inconspicuous. In 2006, it was as little as five days.

According to the analysis of the provincial climate center, this year's plum rains may have an increasing trend compared with the previous two years.

Typhoon: Yunna, Sang Mei. In recent two years, more and more super typhoons have affected our province due to global warming.

According to the analysis of the provincial climate center, this year, it is more likely to seriously affect the emergence of typhoons.

weather report

It began to rain tonight, and the weather turned better on Sunday.

There was another strong cold air at the end of March.

According to the analysis of the meteorological department, starting from today, there is a cold air affecting our province, and the fine weather will end.

Cloudy during the day, cloudy in the evening to night, and sometimes there are showers. Saturday is cloudy with showers or thunderstorms, with moderate rainfall and strong wind. According to the rainfall analysis map, the areas with more rainfall will be concentrated in Chun 'an and Jiande.

The weather in Hangzhou will improve from Sunday. There may be a small precipitation process from March 26th to 27th. But at the end of March, there was another strong cold air influence.

According to the meteorological department, before the arrival of cold air, the temperature in Hangzhou gradually rose, and the highest temperature on the 29th may reach about 25℃. However, after the cold air comes, there will be obvious cooling, and the expected cooling range is around 6-8℃.

Generally speaking, during this period in late March, it will be sunny and rainy in our province, with little change in temperature, and the average temperature is about 1-2 degrees higher than in previous years.