Why is the weather forecast always inaccurate?

Although the ancients had a lot of experience in forecasting weather by observing phenomena and looking for laws, the weather forecast based on modern science is only 100 years old. It was in such a simple manual workshop that she developed by simply observing the pressure field, high and low pressure, cold and warm fronts and performing simple linear calculation, while it took only several decades for numerical forecast to simplify the solution and operation of physical processes. People have not fully grasped the internal mechanisms and laws of the occurrence and evolution of many weather phenomena. Meteorological science is still the sun at seven or eight o'clock in the morning, and it is an extremely young subject. Young people always make mistakes.

Reason 2: Butterflies have countless wings.

Lorenz, a professor at MIT, used an image metaphor to express his findings: a small butterfly flapping its wings over Brazil may trigger a storm in Texas a month later. This is the famous "butterfly effect" in chaos, and it is also one of the earliest chaotic phenomena. Before our eyes, it seems that there are "countless butterfly wings" inciting. Regardless of the greenhouse effect caused by urban heat island and industrial emissions, the complex terrain of this planet has a decisive influence on the weather change, and the vegetation and water bodies are undergoing subtle changes, which cannot be described in detail in the simulation operation.

Of course, we won't be addicted to the inaccuracy of weather forecast because we have "countless butterfly wings", just as students won't lament that the exam questions are too difficult because they can't get full marks. People who often comfort themselves with "chaos" do not have the professional psychological quality of forecasting the weather.

Reason 3: Our eyes have blind spots.

To predict the weather, we must first observe the weather. Theoretically speaking, we must be meticulous and meticulous, and we must not let go of any nuance. Humans themselves have no clairvoyance and clairvoyance, but our eyes have blind spots.

Since the appearance of meteorological satellites, the blind area of our eyes has narrowed and our horizons have widened. No matter how cunning the typhoon is, it will never fool the keen eyes of the satellite. The spiral cloud type of typhoon and typhoon eye are clear at a glance, so we can safely issue those typhoon warnings. But gold alone is not enough, no one is perfect, and so are meteorological satellites. Geosynchronous meteorological satellites always pay attention to weather changes, but they are 36,000 kilometers away from the ground, with a long distance and limited resolution. Polar-orbiting meteorological satellites are more than 800 kilometers high and close to the earth, but they can't concentrate on observing a specific area. Its cloud picture is spliced. When observing a specific area, it is equivalent to the "blink" problem of satellites, and some weather happens in the blink of an eye. In addition, if there are clouds, it will be difficult for us to observe and measure the area and intensity of vegetation, water and dust. Clouds will cover up many secrets.