What does the weather forecast mean that 60% will rain?

The weather forecast of 60% rain means that the probability of rain is 60%.

Generally speaking, weather forecast is a kind of "forecast", so it involves probability, and this percentage is the probability representing the situation of the day. If it is raining or snowing, the percentage number next to the raindrop or snowflake icon represents the probability of rain or snow. For example, for the prediction of precipitation, the traditional weather forecast generally predicts whether it will rain or not, while the probability weather forecast gives the percentage of possible precipitation. The greater the percentage, the greater the possibility of precipitation.

Forecasters predict the percentage of precipitation opportunities in a certain area and a certain period of time through sorting, analysis, judgment and discussion based on various meteorological data. This is only the "probability" of forecasting precipitation, and it cannot be guaranteed to be 100%. If the probability of precipitation forecast is 60%, when arranging activities, it is mainly rainy, supplemented by no rain; The probability of forecasting precipitation is 80%, so be prepared for rain.

Forecast method of weather forecast

1, empirical extrapolation method

Also known as trend method, it infers the future position and intensity of various weather systems according to their past moving paths and intensity change trends on the weather map. This method is effective when the movement and intensity of the weather system do not suddenly change, or when the weather system does not regenerate or die. However, when it suddenly changes or the weather system is alive or dead, the forecast is often not realistic.

2. Similar to situational method

Also known as pattern method, it is to find some similar weather conditions from a large number of historical weather maps and summarize them into certain patterns. If the current weather situation is similar to that before a certain model, it can be predicted with reference to the later evolution of the model. Because similarity is always relative and can't be exactly the same, this method often leads to errors.