About the pig price forecast from the end of 2008 to the beginning of next year

Since April 2007, the price of live pigs in my country has been soaring like a runaway horse. Especially since 2008, the purchase price of live pigs and the retail price of fresh pork have continued to rise at historically high levels. However, in the past three weeks since mid-April, pig prices have suddenly declined in most areas across the country, with a drop of 3.5%, especially for pigs of poor breed. So, how will the pig market operate in the future? Will it continue to decline or return to a high level? This is a question that people, especially farmers, are eager to understand.

On this issue, a reporter from the rural popular newspaper "Shandong Animal Husbandry" weekly interviewed many experts engaged in pig breeding research and managers of large pig farms in Shandong Province.

Pork prices have begun to decline recently

From March 2007 to early April 2008, the national pig price rose from 14 yuan per kilogram to 18 yuan, with a few even exceeding 20 yuan. It is so high and lasts so long that it is rare in history.

Since late April, pig prices have begun to show signs of decline, and the decline accelerated in May, especially for local varieties. For example, the price of native pigs in Liaocheng, Heze, Linyi and other areas has dropped to about 14 yuan per kilogram. In other words, the price of a kilogram of woolly pigs has dropped by at least 3.56 cents, from more than 17 yuan per kilogram in early April to 14 yuan. On May 6, the latest news learned by reporters stated that the price of piglets in Liaocheng area has also declined, falling to about 18 yuan per kilogram.

Regarding this phenomenon, Qu Wanwen, secretary-general of the Pig Production and Marketing Branch of the Shandong Animal Husbandry Association, analyzed that this should be a temporary small fluctuation and will not seriously affect the high pig price trend.

Qu Wanwen said that many pig farms, especially small pig farms, have become extremely sensitive to the recent price decline. She receives calls from multiple pig farm directors every day to consult her on price trends. and whether to expand the market. She analyzed that the main reasons for this small fluctuation in the pig market were pig diseases and pig farmers' panic and imitation mentality. The high number of pig diseases has caused many small and medium-sized pig farms to increase their concentrated slaughter volume and sell off in a surprise manner. The sudden sell-off of large pig farms caused panic and imitative psychology among pig farms, especially small pig farms and free-range farmers. The practice of "selling down but not selling up" caused another wave of small peaks in slaughter, and prices were relatively depressed.

Through investigation, the reporter learned that at present, small and medium-sized slaughtering companies are not very enthusiastic about acquisitions. Recently, the highest temperature in our province has reached 30 degrees Celsius. As the temperature rises, pork consumption decreases, and slaughtering companies are also preparing to reduce purchases; in addition, middlemen such as pig dealers intend to purchase at lower prices. Some feed dealers reported that the impact of swine epidemics continues in some areas of our province, with both large and small pigs dying. Pig dealers generally lower the purchase price of raw pigs, and farmers are also helpless against their price-cutting behavior.

In this regard, Qu Wanwen suggested that farmers should not panic and treat price increases and decreases rationally.

Pork prices will remain high this year

“The recent price decline is only a temporary phenomenon. It is analyzed that it will rise again from June to August this year. Pork prices will continue to rise this year. Maintain high prices." Hao Youbiao, chairman and general manager of Heze Hongxing Original Breeding Pig Breeding Company, said that the high prices of feed, medicine and labor determine that pork prices cannot fall back in the short term.

Zhao Yingchuan, general manager of Liaocheng Hengshun Livestock and Poultry Breeds Co., Ltd., also believes that although the number of sows has increased, the pig supply is still tight due to problems such as unsatisfactory piglet survival rates, and pig prices will fall this year. It is very likely that it will return to high levels after June.

Zhang Jiyuan, director of Weibei Farm’s breeding pig farm, and Kong Xiangjie, director of Yantai Mouping Fuhai Pig Farm, predict that there will be no big fluctuations in pig prices from now to the end of the year, and the price of fattening pigs will drop to per kilogram. It is unlikely to be below 14 yuan.

When will it come down? Most people believe that the price turning point may occur at the beginning of next year, while others believe that pig prices may only decline in April or May next year. At present, most pig farm managers accept the declining pig prices. They believe that more than 14 yuan per kilogram of live pigs is still a highly profitable price that has not been seen in many years.

Industry insiders hold this view, generally speaking, based on two aspects:

On the one hand, the high price of pig products will break the "three-year cycle" generally believed by industry insiders "General rule. Judging from the last "three-year cycle", the duration of pigs maintaining in the high price range was 22 months. This cycle has been running at high prices for about 12 months since April 2007. Based on this, it is expected that pig products will continue to be at high prices for another 10-12 months. According to regular calculations, the next decline in production efficiency and prices will occur after the fourth quarter of this year. If you take into account the current recovery situation of the breeding stock, it may be a little later. In the first quarter of 2009, there is a possibility of even pushing it back. However, many experts believe that in this cycle, the "three-year cycle" theory will most likely be affected by the emergence of many new factors. These new factors mainly include: the number of free-range farmers has decreased significantly and the development of large-scale breeding takes time; affected by the last round of "difficulty in selling pigs", especially the impact of the epidemic in 2007, the number of live pigs has decreased significantly, while the number of farms (households) Risk avoidance and a wait-and-see mentality have intensified; widespread snowfall in the south before the Spring Festival this year, endless diseases, continued rise in prices, especially feed, and the convening of the Olympic Games, etc., will all prolong the period of high prices for pig products.

On the other hand, although the sow population has basically returned to normal levels, it will take time for piglets and fattening pigs to be saturated. The changing situation of the pig population in the future market is directly affected by the situation of sow replenishment in the previous period. It takes at least 12 months from the time the gilts are replenished to the first litter of fattening pigs produced by the sows. In the early days, the lowest sow inventory occurred from May to August 2007. After a year of rapid recovery, the current supply of sows has returned to normal. However, due to diseases such as mycovirus and the cold weather in spring 2008, the survival rate of piglets is low. It is predicted that the saturation state of pigs will not appear until the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009.

It is worth mentioning that when reporters interviewed experts or frontline personnel on pig farms, they gave an indisputable conclusion: the price of live pigs at 18 yuan to 20 yuan per kilogram has reached its highest point and will continue to rise. The space is almost gone, but it is unrealistic to achieve a balance between supply and demand in pig production in the short term.

The first job is to raise pigs well

“Although profit is the ultimate pursuit of pig farms, as a pig farm operator, don’t just focus on the price. Pig farming "The most important thing about pigs is to raise them well." Hao Youbiao emphasized that we must maintain a normal attitude when raising pigs. Only through large-scale and modern breeding, raising health awareness, environmental awareness, and following the path of scientific breeding can it be possible to reduce the risks of breeding and make the pigs more stable. Companies can make a lot of money when the market is good, and they can also be profitable when the market is bad.

From a macro perspective, at present, as farmers, we must vigorously develop large-scale and standardized production, implement industrialized operations, save costs and increase efficiency, accelerate healthy breeding, and enhance the ability to respond to market fluctuations.

From a micro perspective, farmers should strengthen their awareness of disease prevention and control on the basis of scientific breeding, and achieve early prevention, early detection and early treatment of epidemic diseases. At the same time, farmers should appropriately expand the scale of breeding and avoid market risks.