Why has the price of rex rabbit dropped recently?

Although the price of rex rabbit skin has dropped a little recently, it is a market rule, and the price of 201kloc-0/rex rabbit skin will still be at a higher price.

The characteristics of this year's rex rabbit market are: 1, short breeding time, some weighing more than 3 kg when they are released, and their hair has not yet grown well. 2.20 10, the price of rex rabbit reached the historical peak. In summer, the skin can reach 70 yuan RMB, and in winter, the cooked board can reach the peak of 120 RMB. Generally, the gap between cooked board and rawhide is 3-5 yuan, but there is a price deviation this year, and the price of cooked board is 50% higher than that of rawhide in winter. Let me analyze the factors that affect the fur market one by one. Whoever can grasp the changes of the above factors can predict the future market of rex rabbit skin.

1. Although the RMB has been appreciating slowly since the exchange rate reform in 2005, in mid-July, 2008, after the central parity of RMB against the US dollar reached the level of 6.8 yuan, it began to maintain a stable trend for nearly two years. However, since the new round of exchange rate reform this year, the RMB has once again ushered in a round of appreciation. Especially since September 9th, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen for nine consecutive trading days, * * * 9 10 basis point. And since September 10, it has hit a new high since the exchange rate reform for eight consecutive trading days. Based on the central parity of RMB against the US dollar on September 2 1, the central bank reiterated that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 2% since the exchange reform three months ago. If the appreciation reaches an unbearable level for foreign trade enterprises, the price of rex rabbit skin is bound to be affected. The extent of the impact is unpredictable.

2. At present, the shortage of domestic rex rabbit stocks is the main reason for the price increase of rex rabbit skins. By February of 20 10, the number of rex rabbits raised in China was less than 30% of that in 2007. The financial crisis has caused some farmers to give up animal breeding, which takes a certain period. The number of domestic rex rabbit breeding has dropped sharply, and the raw rabbit skin market is in short supply.

Some time ago, we were going to buy some high-quality rex rabbit skins and let the following farmers organize the supply for us. We can buy more than 65,438+0,000 live animals. The farmers who prepared the goods for us said that there were very few rabbits weighing 5 kg, let alone a quantity of 1000. Your middleman in Hebei took it away 5 kg ago and bought more rabbits. Stimulated by high prices, the number of aquaculture has increased rapidly this year. But after the financial crisis in 2007-08, farmers are more rational now. More farmers know that rex rabbit breeding can make money, but once bitten, twice shy, they are still worried that the total amount of breeding will not rise too fast, let alone exceed 2007.

3. With the increase of feed and labor price, the price of rex rabbit skin will inevitably rise. As I said before, we breed rex rabbits and engage in fur industry, which is actually a disguised form of labor export. We export cheap labor in the form of rex rabbit breeding. The main influence of inflation is the rising labor cost, which will inevitably lead to the rising price of rex rabbit products. Due to the expectation of inflation, the labor cost will rise by 30%, which will definitely increase the price of rex rabbits.

4. Domestic and international demand is gradually improving. With the stability and improvement of the global economic situation, the demand for rex rabbit products at home and abroad will further increase, which will certainly boost the export growth and domestic consumption of rabbit products, so the overall development situation of 20 1 1 rabbit industry will maintain a steady rise.

The following excerpts can illustrate China's foreign trade export: In the first quarter, leather and clothing exports ended a five-year continuous decline. The export of leather clothes has been declining continuously since 2005, and it began to increase in June this year at 65438+ 10. From 20 10 to 1-3 months, china leather exported 3.27 million garments, amounting to1.70 billion US dollars, up 35. 1% and 35% respectively, and down 38.6% and 23% respectively. Although leather is not a rex rabbit product, it is related after all. From June to June, China exported 6.89 million pieces of leather garments, amounting to US$ 330 million, up by 20.9% and 25.4% respectively. In the first half of this year, Cangzhou exported 1.7 million pieces of fur clothing, with an export value of US$ 22.495 million, up by 45.2 1% and 1.005% respectively. From June 5438 to July, the export of Shishi fur clothing was14.75 million US dollars, up 234.86% year-on-year, which became the biggest highlight of the export in the first half of the year. Even Chengde, which is not well-known in the fur industry, has exported ladies' rabbit fur coats worth $4,980.5 to Italy, which is the first time that Chengde has exported fur clothing.

Since the financial crisis last year, domestic fur enterprises have changed their marketing strategies in time and changed the tactics of "only making foreign orders, not domestic trade". At present, several large fur clothing enterprises I know are doing OEM processing for domestic brand companies, and the main raw material of fur is rex rabbit skin, which is mainly used for fur collars and liners. Due to the poor quality of the fur slices of rex rabbits raised at present, all orders were cancelled. Due to the influence of raw materials of rex rabbit, the order was cancelled, which is also the reason why the price of rex rabbit skin is sky-high At present, fur enterprises such as Guangzhou, Haining, Chongfu, Beijing Dahongmen, Neixinji, Daying, Shangcun and Hebei Yangyuan have made bold attempts in the domestic market and achieved satisfactory results. This will definitely push up the price of rex rabbit skin.

5. The prices of fur raw materials at home and abroad are on the rise. Since last year, the prices of mink, fox, raccoon dog, mink and rex rabbit, as raw materials of fur, have been rising continuously, especially the prices of fox and rex rabbit have reached a record high. High-quality blue fox skin is basically the same as imported skin, and silver fox skin is also rising wildly, exceeding the dealer's expectation. Rex rabbit skin also costs the sky-high price of 170 yuan. Although the sales of foxes and raccoons are slow at present, they are always running at high prices. At the auction in Denmark in September, all hides were sold at 100%, with an increase of 5-10%; At the just-concluded auction in Finland, the turnover rate of fox skin remained above 90%, mink skin 100%, blue frost fox rose 10%, and Finnish raccoon rose 15%. Rex rabbit skin, as a member of fur raw materials, is expected to follow suit.

6. Weather is also an important factor in using rex rabbit skin. According to the analysis of meteorologists, this year will be an extremely cold winter, which is also a godsend opportunity for leather sales.

Based on the analysis of the above six factors, the price of rex rabbit skin in 20 1 1 year will be at a higher price. Due to the rising labor and feed costs, the increasing demand for rex rabbit skin at home and abroad, the arrival of cold winter, the overall increase of international fur and other factors, the price of first-class winter skin should be 60-80 yuan. However, the price of winter ripe skin to be listed soon will not exceed the current price of winter ripe skin, and will not reach the highest price 120 yuan. It should fall back to a reasonable range, that is, the price difference between raw hides and cooked boards is 3-the reasonable price in 5 yuan. In general, farmers will not lose money in 1-2 years. However, there are many factors that affect the price of skin graft, and there are also many uncertain factors.