Why is the price of corn so low this year? Thank you.

Since March this year, the price of corn in China has been falling for six months after hitting a record high. We believe that under the circumstances of supply pressure, weak demand and falling purchasing and storage prices this year, the bear market pattern has been established, and there is still room for corn prices to fall.

1, supply side: the output reached a new high and the inventory was huge.

According to the latest forecast data of USDA, the corn output in China in 201516 was 225 million tons, which was the same as that in September. According to this forecast, China's corn production in 201516 will increase by about 4.33%, 3% and 9.43% respectively compared with the previous three years, reaching a new record high. We think that 20 15/ 16, the corn yield in China reached a record high, which was bad for the corn price in China.

From the field investigation, the top three provinces and cities in China's corn producing areas are Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia. From September 26th to 20th, 206543815th, we made a six-day field trip in the northwest of Heilongjiang, the main soybean and corn producing area in China. The research route of the western line is Harbin-Suihua-Bei 'an-Heihe-Nehe-Qiqihar-Harbin. Through this survey, we know that the output of soybeans and corn in the northwest of Heilongjiang Province this year is as follows:

The cultivation of soybeans and corn in the northwest of Heilongjiang is mainly contracted and leased, and the self-supporting ratio of farmers is about 1/3. In addition to soybeans in the north of Heilongjiang, corn is mainly planted in the south. From the perspective of regional distribution, Suiling, Helen, Haibei, Bei 'an and other places mainly plant corn: for example, farmers in Suihua area reported that they all planted corn this year; Farmers in Keyinhe Township, Suiling County reported that the planting area of corn and soybean was half last year, but this year the planting area of corn rose to 90%, and the planting area of soybean dropped to 10%. Township leaders in Hailun County reported that the soybean planting area in the county was about 6.5438+0.7 million mu last year, and the corn planting area was about 2.05 million mu, accounting for 45.3% and 54.7% respectively. The planting area of soybean and corn this year is estimated to be 6.5438+0.65 million mu and 2.65438+00 mu respectively, accounting for 44% and 56% respectively. The person in charge of a cooperative in Sunwu County, Heihe City reported that all soybeans have been planted in recent years; In Xigangzi Town, Heihe City, corn is mainly planted, while soybean is less planted. Nenjiang County's soybean planting area increased slightly this year; Farmers in Tawen Aobao Town, Moqi, Inner Mongolia reported that the soybean planting area increased by about 1 times this year. Relevant persons in Qiqihar reported that more than 5 million mu of soybeans were planted, accounting for about 15% of the planting structure in this area, and 20 million mu of corn was planted, accounting for about 57%. Therefore, according to our investigation, the corn planting area in the northwest of Heilongjiang Province still ranks first this year.

The main reasons why farmers choose to plant soybeans or corn are: (1) The yield of corn planting is much higher than that of soybeans. For example, Helen's current township leaders estimate that the output of soybeans is 4000-5000 yuan lower than that of corn, which makes farmers more willing to plant corn. If some farmers say that if the soybean price rises to 3 yuan/Jin, they will consider planting soybeans. (2) Because of the land, farmers only grow soybeans when they can't grow corn. For example, farmers in Tawen Aobao Town, Moqi, Inner Mongolia think that this area is not suitable for planting corn because of its low temperature and large pesticide residues.

Judging from the growth of soybeans and corn this year, different regions also show different situations: farmers in Suihua region reported that due to more rain, low accumulated temperature and late sowing this year, it is expected that the corn output this year will be lower than last year. Last year, the corn harvest was good, mainly because it rained at night and sunny during the day, which was very beneficial to the growth of corn. It is expected that there will be no freezing injury this year, because there has been no frost so far, and there was frost at this time in previous years. Farmers in the tribal village of Keyinhe Township, Suiling County reported that the soybean yield was good this year, because the weather was good and there was no drought or waterlogging. The output was estimated to be around 300 kg/mu, and the quality of protein was good. The corn planting in this village caused a large area of lodging due to the purchase of Hetian No.2 seeds; Farmers predict that this year's corn output will be about 6.5438+0 million kg/year, compared with 23,000 kg/year last year. According to the leaders of Hailun County and Township, the soybean yield this year is not as good as last year, mainly because the accumulated temperature is low (about 200-300 degrees less), so there are no pods at the bottom 15-20CM of soybean, and the seeds at the top are not full enough, but there are mung beans. This year's soybean output is expected to be 4500 kg/year, which is about 10% lower than last year. The average yield of corn is estimated to be around 24,000 kg/year. The person in charge of a cooperative in Sunwu County, Heihe City reported that this year is a little dry, and the soybean output is expected to be slightly lower than last year. Last year, soybean output was about 4000 kg/year, and this year's soybean output is currently expected to be 3500-3600 kg/year. A buyer in Xigangzi Town, Heihe City reported that this year's corn production was ok, with a slight decline, mainly because last year's corn production was very high, and soybean production was not heard of. The person in charge of a grain depot in Nenjiang County predicts that the total output of soybeans in this area is expected to be 600,000-700,000 tons, a slight decrease of about 654.38+10,000 tons compared with last year, and the total output of corn is expected to be about 2 million tons. Farmers in Tawen Aobao Town, Moqi, Inner Mongolia reported that the weather was OK this year. This year's soybean output is expected to be around 3000-3500 kg/year, and the average output in previous years was around 3200 kg/year. Relevant persons in Qiqihar reported that the whole grain crops are growing well this year, especially in April-May, mainly due to low temperature and rainy weather, and it is impossible to farm in the fields. In June, there was drought in some places, such as south of Longjiang River, and then there was no rain across the road. Generally speaking, the total precipitation this year is similar to that in previous years, but the uneven distribution of precipitation may lead to different situations of corn varieties, that is, corn grows well in places with more rain, and vice versa. This year, the corncob is relatively small and not yet fully mature. The maturity is 3-5 days later than usual, which may lead to the risk of early frost. However, fortunately, up to now, it is not 0 degrees in Qiqihar. According to the weather forecast, the temperature will rise after the "Eleventh", so there should be no first frost in Qiqihar this year.