When can I make earthquake prediction like the weather?

In process of crustal movement, different parts of the earth's crust are subjected to such forces as squeezing, stretching and twisting. Where the structure is fragile, it is easy to break, causing fracture changes and becoming the main cause of earthquakes. More than 99% of earthquakes in the world are caused by the fracture change of the earth's crust, which is called tectonic earthquake. Now we must predict and prevent this kind of tectonic earthquake. In addition, volcanic eruptions and cave collapses can also cause earthquakes, but the number is very small and the scale is very small. Some scientists are studying the characteristics of earthquakes, and it is not far from inventing earthquake prediction machines. In fact, the prototype of the machine has been developed in the United States, and its name is "Real California". Scientists use it to calculate that in the next 20 years, there is a 25% probability that the San Francisco Bay in the United States will suffer from an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more. Today, when people make weather forecast, they are doing digital simulation of the weather. Meteorologists find a computer, usually a giant computer, and then design a program to input today's data, today's situation, and maybe even use past data. The program starts running, calculates the future trend, and finally outputs the simulated weather conditions for tomorrow and the next few days. This process is called "digital simulation". The basic principle for earthquake prediction is the same. Similar to the weather information provided by the weather forecast, this earthquake prediction machine named "Real California" is also a computer. People input the information of local crustal movement into the computer. The program on the earthquake predictor is called earthquake fault system, which simulates the real fault system in California, USA. The machine simulates the future crustal movement according to the input data, and predicts the earthquake on this basis. How to obtain timely and accurate underground information? In San Francisco, scientists are carrying out a project called "San Andreas Fault Depth Observation", which has monitored the geophysical changes in the North American continent for 12 years. The technical core of this plan is a drilling rig used in petroleum industry. The drilling rig is used to drill down, enter the underground 1.8km, then turn horizontally for 2.9km, and finally stop at a pressure point of the San andreas fault, where a small earthquake started. Some instruments placed in the borehole, such as geophone, accelerometer, strain gauge, temperature sensor, water pressure sensor, etc. , will measure data, such as data about slow deformation of underground rocks, data about pressure changes near faults, etc. Through optical cable transmission, the data obtained by the instrument will be transmitted to the "real California" database in real time, so that scientists can evaluate the initial signals before the earthquake and what will happen when the earthquake occurs. In addition to local real-time information, earthquake prediction machines need more extensive earthquake data. For example, geologists have invented new methods to determine the time when ancient earthquakes occurred. Using carbon isotope dating, they can limit the time of earthquakes to decades. Other scientists use cores recovered from the seabed to determine the time of the earthquake. These data are input into the computer as the basis of calculation. Using "real California", scientists simulated the earthquake activity in San Francisco Bay in the past 40,000 years. They found that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above occur once every 1, 0 1 year on average. According to the simulation of this predictor, the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in this area from now until 2032 is as high as 62%. This conclusion worries scientists. Because the last major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area was in 1906, an earthquake of magnitude 8 and its fire destroyed most buildings in San Francisco, killing 3,000 people. The latest earthquake was at 1989, with a magnitude of 7. 1, much smaller than 1906. It still killed more than 60 people and destroyed many areas of the city. If another earthquake with the same magnitude as 1906 occurs, it will cause a large number of casualties in this metropolis, not just the 3000 people in that year. Therefore, the development of earthquake prediction machine has great social benefits, and timely warning before a major earthquake will save many lives. This "real California" technically allows researchers to better understand the nature of earthquakes. . So far, scientists believe that the earthquake is like this: the rock at the fault suddenly breaks under the action of pressure, and the energy is released, generating seismic waves and pushing the ground. Where the rock breaks is the source. Regarding earthquakes, there is a hypothesis that when an earthquake occurs, the fault first moves slowly and then accelerates to slide down. Now, scientists can judge whether this hypothesis is correct according to the data obtained by the instrument. This "real California" earthquake predictor is still in the research model stage, and whether it can be really applied to life needs further inspection and improvement. In order to test the performance of the earthquake prediction machine, scientists input data to see if it can predict the earthquake of 1906. Encouragingly, the machine came to the correct conclusion. Maybe soon, we will add a column called "earthquake prediction" to the TV program.