Why is coal so expensive this year?

The epidemic effect after the superposition of "carbon neutral" coal prices runs at a high level.

Since 202 1, China's coal price has been running at a high level. In the short term, the economic recovery after the "carbon neutral" epidemic will provide strong support for coal prices. There are three main reasons:

Clarify the price range and further improve the coal market price mechanism.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has successively issued the Notice on Further Improving the Price Formation Mechanism of the Coal Market (No.303 of Development and Reform Price [2022], hereinafter referred to as No.303 document) and Announcement No.4 of 2022, which were clearly implemented on May 1 day. For price manipulation, the relevant documents clearly stipulate the behavior of driving up prices.

On May 6, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since May 1 day, there is a reasonable range between the medium and long-term trading price and the spot price of coal. According to the Notice on Further Perfecting the Formation Mechanism of Coal Market Price, the medium and long-term transaction price of sewage coal (5,500 kcal) in Qinhuangdao Port in the near future is more reasonable at 570-770 yuan per ton (including tax). The reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction price in coal mining in key areas is: Shanxi (5500 kcal) 370-570 yuan/ton, Shaanxi (5500 kcal) 320-520 yuan/ton, Meng Xi (5500 kcal) 260 yuan -460 yuan/ton, and Mengdong (5500 kcal) 200-300 yuan/ton.

Among them, the long-term and spot prices of sewage coal (5500 kcal, the same below) in Qinhuangdao Port are higher than those in 770 yuan, 1 155 yuan, Shanxi Coal Mine is higher than that in 570 yuan and 855 yuan, and Shaanxi Coal Mine is higher than that in 520 yuan and 780 yuan. The long-term cooperative price and spot price per ton of coal in Meng Xi are higher than those in 460 yuan and 690 yuan respectively, and the long-term cooperative price and spot price per ton of coal in Mengdong (3,500 kcal) are higher than those in 300 yuan and 450 yuan respectively. If there is no justifiable reason, it can generally be considered as price fraud.

Adjustment direction of China's energy policy under the background of global energy crisis

In addition, the frequent occurrence of global energy crises such as Ukrainian crisis highlights the advantages of traditional fossil energy in infrastructure, power generation cost and power supply stability, which will lead countries to reflect on excessive energy transformation and profoundly affect China's foreign coal energy cooperation and energy security. China's domestic energy market level is low. Faced with the impact of extreme events, energy security and resilience are insufficient, and the domestic risks of international energy security incidents in China are magnified. Based on the change of EU energy policy, it will indirectly affect China's overseas energy cooperation and energy security, including coal, and China needs to adjust its energy policy to deal with it.

—— The above data comes from the Analysis Report on the Development Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China Coal Industry by Prospective Industry Research Institute.