There may be two typhoons affecting Jilin Province in the main flood season.

It's early in the flood season. According to the meteorological monitoring data and related evaluation standards, Jilin Province has entered the concentrated precipitation period since June 4th, which is 14 days earlier than normal.

Second, there is more precipitation. As of 8: 00 this morning, the average precipitation in the province has reached 260.6 mm, 98.4% more than the same period of normal years, ranking first in the rainy period since meteorological records were recorded. The precipitation in 20 cities and counties is more than twice as high as normal, and six counties and cities such as Siping and Meihekou are more than twice as high as normal. There are four large-scale obvious precipitation weather processes.

Third, it is extreme. * * * There are 18 counties and cities hit by heavy rain, the number of which exceeds the historical record in the same period. Local heavy rainfall is frequent. On June 24th, there was 269.7mm heavy rainfall in Lianhe Township, Daan, 222.2mm heavy rainfall in Gao Tai Village, Gushanzi Town, Liuhe, and 139.7mm heavy rainfall in Jiutai on July 7th, which broke through the extreme daily rainfall of this station. There was an instantaneous gale of 12 (35. 1m/s) in taonan city, and hail occurred in many places.

Affected by the northward circulation of tropical depression "Siam Ba" and the weakening of westerly trough, the fourth heavy rainfall weather process occurred in our province since the flood season on the morning of the 6th. By 8: 00 a.m. on the 8th, the average precipitation in the whole province was 465,438 0.5 mm, with heavy rainfall mainly distributed in the central part of the province, and the average rainfall in Liaoyuan, Changchun, Siping and Jilin all exceeded 50 mm. From the meteorological observation stations in the whole province, there were 130 stations with process precipitation exceeding 100mm, and there were 320 stations with 50 ~ 99.9 mm. There are 42 1 station with 25 ~ 49.9 mm, the maximum precipitation is 203.3mm in Erdaogou Village, Tumenling Town, Jiutai, and the maximum precipitation per hour is nine stations.

Today, the heavy rainfall process is basically over. It is estimated that on the 8th and 9th, the province will be dominated by unevenly distributed showers or thunderstorms.

Analysis and forecast of climate trend in main flood season

According to the latest meteorological data analysis, it is predicted that the temperature in the main flood season (July-August) is slightly higher and the precipitation is close to normal, but the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven. The average temperature in the province is about 23℃, slightly higher than the same period of normal years; The average precipitation in the whole province is 260 ~ 3 10 mm, which is close to the same period of the year. In July, the average temperature in the province was 23 ~ 24℃, which was slightly higher than normal. The average precipitation in the whole province is 150 ~ 180mm, which is slightly higher than the same period of normal years. Tonghua and Baishan areas are 20-30% more than normal, and other areas are about 1%. In August, the average temperature in the whole province was about 22℃, which was slightly higher than normal, and the average precipitation was 1 10 ~ 130mm, which was slightly less than normal. The western region is about 10% less than normal, and the eastern region is about 10% less than normal. There may be about two typhoons that directly or indirectly affect our province.

During the main flood season, regional rainstorm, thunderstorm and strong wind and local heavy precipitation are more likely to occur, which is easy to cause disasters such as river floods, mountain torrents, urban waterlogging and farmland waterlogging. There is a period of high temperature and little rain in the central and western regions, and there may be drought.

At present, the "La Nina" event in the equatorial Middle East Pacific is still going on, and there is still some uncertainty about the climate trend in the later period. The meteorological department will closely monitor the weather changes, roll the revised forecast conclusions in time, and do its best to provide weather forecast and early warning services.