Will a typhoon land in Hainan in the next seven days?

Yang Qiwei, a reporter from China Meteorological News, suffered from wind and rain. Raccoon weakened into a severe tropical storm after landing in Longlou Town, Wenchang City, Hainan Province, and landed again in Dongping Town, Yangdong County, Yangjiang City, Guangdong Province at 15 19, with a central wind force of 7 and a central minimum pressure of 998 hectopascals. "We finally caught this naughty puppy. No matter how hard and tired! " Ruan Shilin, director of Yangjiang Meteorological Bureau, who has been sticking to the front line, has a high voice on the phone and is full of the joy of the winner.

Raccoon is fierce, breaking the earliest record in history.

Raccoon is restless from birth. When the spring tide has not retreated and it is still warm and cold, I am uneasy and eager to try.

The earliest tropical cyclone that landed in Guangdong in history appeared on May 2, and the earliest tropical cyclone that landed in South China appeared on April 28. However, under the background of global warming, raccoon's visit to Guangdong this year was advanced to April 19, breaking the earliest record and more than two months earlier than the historical average time in Guangdong.

Leaders at all levels attach great importance to the early, accurate and stable forecasting service.

On April 5, at 14 and 14, "raccoon" just developed into a tropical storm, which immediately attracted the attention of meteorological departments and leaders at all levels in Guangdong Province.

15, 16, Lin Xianmin, deputy director of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, signed the first major meteorological information express, reported the tropical cyclone news to the provincial government at the first time, and reported the raccoon's moving speed and intensity forecast in detail to the provincial party committee, provincial government and relevant departments in the next 24 hours. It is suggested that offshore operations and passing ships in the South China Sea pay close attention to raccoon movements and do a good job in defense. Li Ronggen, deputy governor of Guangdong Province, immediately instructed in the Major Meteorological Information Express: "Please pay attention to the dynamics of raccoons and report the situation in a timely and accurate manner." .

On the afternoon of 17, Li Ronggen, deputy governor of Guangdong province and commander-in-chief of provincial defense, proposed that according to the requirements of "four hundred percent", that is, fishing boats 100% returned to Hong Kong, fishing rafts 100% landed, and people in dangerous areas such as five-guarantee households in dangerous houses 100% moved, and low-lying areas were simple. Chen Lei, deputy commander-in-chief of the National Defense General, fully affirmed Guangdong's practice of attaching great importance to and doing defense work in an all-round way.

Yu Yong, director of Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center and director of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, who is studying in Beijing, is very concerned about the movement of "raccoon". He specially deployed various work to prevent "raccoon" and asked meteorological stations at all levels in all provinces in the region to do their best to forecast the first tropical storm this year.

The leaders of China Meteorological Bureau and relevant experts are also very concerned about the influence of raccoons on Qiong, Yue and Gui, and have repeatedly telephoned to guide the forecasts of various provinces and regions in the region. Deputy Director Yu Rucong led a team to Hainan to direct the anti-Taiwan campaign.

On June 5438+07, Guangdong Meteorological Bureau suggested that the relevant departments should make all kinds of defense preparations for typhoon attacking western Guangdong as soon as possible, overcome the paralysis that typhoon will not affect Guangdong and typhoon cannot affect Guangdong so early, and make all kinds of defense preparations for typhoon landing in western Guangdong as soon as possible. It is necessary to guard against the equal influence of typhoon and cold air in the north, and guard against the derivative disasters such as urban and rural waterlogging and mountain torrents caused by heavy rainfall that may occur after the typhoon approaches the western coast of Guangdong.

17, Guangdong started the typhoon level III meteorological emergency plan. Lin Xianmin and Xu Yongzheng, deputy directors, are forecasting the duty room every day, discussing the weather with forecasters and commanding in front. At the same time, the provincial bureau sent a working group led by the bureau leaders to command typhoon prevention services at stations along the coast of western Guangdong.

Under the care and guidance of leaders at all levels, Guangdong Meteorological Bureau mobilized urgently to closely monitor raccoon dynamics and strengthen the monitoring of severe tropical storms. Provincial Meteorological Observatory mobilized technical force, strengthened duty and strengthened consultation. Under the specific guidance of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the Provincial Meteorological Observatory carefully analyzed the satellite SST data, cloud trace wind data and Doppler weather radar product data, and accurately made the forecast that the typhoon landed in Hainan first and then in western Guangdong. In the aspect of path prediction, experts take the typhoon in transition season as a reference and consider its low-level turning flow, so as to stably predict the path of raccoons.

Blowing the anti-Taiwan assembly number, the province entered actual combat drills.

18+0 1, Xu Yongzhen, who was in command at the front line, resolutely started the emergency response of Typhoon II and blew the assembly number to catch raccoons. /kloc-on the afternoon of 0/8, the meteorological bureaus of Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang, Jiangmen, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing, Yunfu, Zhuhai and other cities immediately entered the typhoon-prevention level II emergency response state, and a campaign against raccoons started! Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang, Jiangmen, Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau and Provincial Meteorological Bureau and other related business units implement a 24-hour foreman system, and do a good job in real-time monitoring, understanding demand, rolling forecasting, accurate early warning, emergency information transmission, business monitoring, tracking service and impact assessment.

The Provincial Meteorological Observatory pays close attention to the conclusions of the national weather consultation, and gives specific guidance to the forecasting services of key cities and counties in combination with the decisions and judgments of forecasting experts and the comprehensive application data of satellite inversion products and Doppler weather radar products, and increases the consultation at any time under special circumstances. Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang, Jiangmen and Zhuhai Meteorological Bureaus report weather disasters, early warning and forecast information, services and emergency organization to the Provincial Meteorological Bureau twice a day (10:30, 15:30). At the same time, the Provincial Meteorological Bureau also sent a working group led by the bureau leaders to various stations along the coast of western Guangdong to guide relevant units to do a good job in typhoon prevention meteorological services.

Starting from 16, the Science and Technology Service Center of the Provincial Meteorological Bureau continuously broadcasts the latest typhoon news through the "hot spot tracking" mailbox. 17 08: 00 began to send typhoon warning information to the outside world. On June 5438+08, after the service center entered the second-level emergency response state, the editing department and the technical department immediately arranged to increase the night shift and get ready to release early warning information at any time; The service department should be prepared to respond and explain to customers; The development department should contact cities and major operators and be prepared to send a large number of early warning information. ...

On April 17, Zhanjiang Meteorological Bureau released 22 typhoon messages10000, including 2 mobile messages16000 and 50,000 Unicom messages. The Provincial Meteorological Observatory released 200,000 typhoon messages.

On April 18, Zhanjiang Meteorological Bureau released 2.55 million typhoon messages, including 2.2 million from China Mobile and 350,000 from China Unicom. The mobile phone of Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau sent emergency short messages 1 10,000. Yangjiang Meteorological Bureau sent 720,000 urgent messages. Maoming Meteorological Bureau sent 6 1 10,000 emergency messages, including 300,000 mobile messages, 0.3 million Unicom messages and 0.8 million PHS messages. Yunfu Meteorological Bureau sent 700,000 emergency messages, including 600,000 mobile messages and 654.38+10,000 Unicom messages. Jiangmen Meteorological Bureau sent 380,000 emergency messages to Taishan area, including 300,000 mobile messages and 80,000 Unicom messages. The Provincial Meteorological Observatory released 200,000 typhoon messages. ...

On April 19, Maoming Meteorological Bureau issued 400,000 typhoon messages, Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau issued 1 10,000 typhoon messages, Zhaoqing Meteorological Bureau issued 1 0.3 million typhoon messages, including110,000 mobile phone messages and 300,000 Unicom messages.

From 08: 00 on April 17 to 05: 00 on April 19, the Science and Technology Service Center of Guangdong Provincial Bureau * * * sent 804 1866 early warning information. ...

19, 14: 08, 15, raccoon finally submitted its forecast. It brought strong winds and heavy rains to Guangdong Province. Shangchuan Island recorded an instantaneous maximum gust of 32m/s, with rainfall exceeding 270mm. Some towns and villages in Doumen, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, Yangdong, Enping, Xinhui and Dongguan also experienced heavy rains exceeding 100 mm ... Guangzhou 19 increased in the afternoon, with heavy rains in Panyu District and Nansha District, and heavy rains in other districts and counties.