20 10 winter weather forecast My home is in the North China Plain. There is a greenhouse. More snow in winter will affect strawberry greenhouses; Is there much snow this year?

[Reprint] After the hot summer, is it colder in winter?

The cold zone and the heat spread to the south, and it is colder in winter? In an interview with Liaoning Daily in February this year, he analyzed the principle of climate change and its recent performance, and put forward the prediction that "the cold winter is followed by the hot summer". On February 4th, Liaoning Daily published an exclusive interview:/html/lnrb/20100204/lnrb385212.html #. This prediction has been verified at present and was recently interviewed by Liaoning Daily. Liaoning Daily once again published an exclusive interview: Is it colder in winter after the intense heat? See:/html/lnrb/20100722/lnrb503524.html Dialogue: Is it colder in winter after the intense heat? 20 10-07-22 09:24:44 Source: Liaoning Daily The northern hemisphere has just entered summer, and the heat flow is raging everywhere. The temperature in Beijing on July 5th has exceeded 40℃, breaking through the extreme high temperature in Beijing in early July since 195 1, and the ground temperature is as high as 68℃. And other parts of the world have also ushered in the heat. At the beginning of June, the highest temperature in northwest India was close to 50℃, setting a record in Indian meteorological history. Since late June, high temperature weather has continued in the Gulf region, with temperatures soaring to 50℃ in Saudi Arabia and 52℃ in Kuwait. America also suffers from hot weather. According to American media reports, on July 4th, a heat wave swept through new york, and both JFK Airport and nearby Newark Airport reached a high temperature of 38.3℃. The highest temperature in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, is 18, the highest since 188 1, reaching 35.3℃. The unusually hot weather reminds us of a very important environmental problem in recent years: the greenhouse effect. The increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to more and more obvious greenhouse effect, and this year's summer heat has sounded the alarm of global warming. Just as the northern hemisphere was extremely hot, the southern hemisphere became colder. So what kind of winter will the northern hemisphere usher in next? We asked Kuang Yaoqiu, a researcher at China Academy of Sciences, to make a prediction. Liaoning Daily: In the northern hemisphere, summer is coming, and the heat flow is raging everywhere, which just verifies your prediction that "the severe winter is followed by the intense heat" when you were interviewed by me in February this year. The temperature in Beijing on July 5th has exceeded 40℃, breaking through the extreme high temperature in Beijing in early July since 195 1, and the ground temperature is as high as 68℃. Such hot weather doesn't just happen in Beijing. Can you tell us something about other areas? Kuang Yaoqiu: Since the summer of this year, there have been three high-temperature weather processes in China, each lasting more than 7 days, and the high-temperature heat wave is obvious. According to statistics, from June 1 day to July 4/20 10, the daily maximum temperature at 162 stations in Northeast China, North China, Xinjiang, Yangtze River Basin and South China reached the standard of extreme events, among which 34 stations in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang exceeded the historical extreme value. The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau summarized the characteristics of high temperature weather in China since the summer of 20 10, which has the following characteristics: First, the intensity of high temperature is high. Since the beginning of summer, high-temperature weather with daily maximum temperature greater than or equal to 35℃ has generally occurred in most parts of eastern and northern China, including parts of northern Heilongjiang, northeastern and western Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang and southwestern Hebei. Second, there are many hot days. The average number of high temperature days in China this year is 2.8 days, which is more than normal 1.3 days. The high temperature days in southern North China, western Huanghuai, eastern Xinjiang, western Heilongjiang, northeastern Inner Mongolia, western Hubei and Hainan are 4- 12 days, and some areas in eastern Xinjiang have 12-20 days. Among them, the average number of high temperature days in Jilin Province is 2. 1 day, and the average number of high temperature days in Heilongjiang Province is 4.7 days, both of which are the highest in the same period in history. The summer heat abroad is even worse. Many countries in the northern hemisphere have been hit by high-temperature heat waves since the summer: since May this year, the temperature in most cities in India has remained above 42℃, and the average temperature in Gujarat in the west has reached 48.5℃. At the beginning of June, the highest temperature in northwest India was close to 50℃, setting a record in Indian meteorological history. It is reported that the high temperature has caused nearly 300 deaths. Since late June, high temperature weather has continued in the Gulf region, with temperatures soaring to 50℃ in Saudi Arabia and 52℃ in Kuwait. America also suffers from hot weather. According to American media reports, on July 4th, a heat wave swept through new york, and both JFK Airport and nearby Newark Airport reached a high temperature of 38.3℃. Liaoning Daily: It seems that the northern hemisphere is generally in hot summer, so relatively speaking, it is winter in the southern hemisphere. What is the situation in the southern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: Although most of the southern hemisphere is a sea area, it is basically a maritime climate, which is generally mild, and winter and heat are rare. However, the temperature in the southern hemisphere has also been abnormal this year, but due to the small land area and few residents in the southern hemisphere, it is difficult for us to see relevant reports. Fortunately, this year's World Cup was held in South Africa. From the news reports of the World Cup, we can find some abnormal weather information in the southern hemisphere: on June 5438+05, strong cold air swept through South Africa from south to north, and on June 18, the meteorological department of South Africa released information to confirm that the lowest temperature in Johannesburg reached -3.2℃ from June 5438+07 to June 5438+08, setting a record of 6542. According to historical records, the winter in South Africa was not cold. The average minimum temperature in June is about 3℃ to 4℃, and it can reach above 10℃ during the day, and the sunshine is sufficient, which can fully meet the needs of football matches. Who knows that since mid-June, the temperature in South Africa has continued to drop, which FIFA did not expect. The cold weather makes many fans choose to stay at home. You should know that the latitude of South Africa is not very high, and the latitude at the southernmost point is not more than 35 degrees south latitude, which is only equivalent to Xi 'an and Zhengzhou in China. Moreover, Xi 'an and Zhengzhou are also hard to see the weather of-10℃, which belongs to a typical continental climate, while bloemfontein, South Africa, has a temperature record of-10.3℃, which belongs to a maritime climate, indicating that the cold current intensity is indeed abnormal. Liaoning Daily: Judging from the temperature in June alone, is it true that it was hotter in the northern hemisphere and colder in the southern hemisphere in June? Kuang Yaoqiu: According to the average land temperature data observed by Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in the United States and the average sea surface temperature data observed by Hadley Center in the United Kingdom in June, we can get the global average temperature of 20 10 in June. The average land temperature in the northern hemisphere in June is mostly 65,438+0,956,5438+0-65,438+0,980, which is 65,438+0℃-4℃ higher than that in the northern coastal area of Caspian Sea and only 0.2℃-65,438+0℃ lower than that in the northwestern United States, Afghanistan and southeastern China. The greenhouse effect accelerates the expansion of the northern hemisphere's cold regions to the south in winter and the tropical regions to the north in summer. Liaoning Daily: It's only summer. Why is it so hot in most parts of the northern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: In summer, the solar radiation received by the northern hemisphere is gradually increasing. It is normal for some high-temperature weather to occur, but there should be a reason for the record high temperature and the increase in high-temperature weather days. I think it's caused by the greenhouse effect. The enhancement of greenhouse effect is the main reason for the record increase of high temperature and high temperature weather this summer. I remember when I was interviewed by you about the cold winter at the beginning of the year, I said that the overall consequence of the increase in greenhouse gas concentration is that it gets warmer when there is sunshine and gets colder when there is no sunshine. The "cold winter" at the beginning of the year probably means that we will face a "hot summer" after half a year. Obviously, this inference made at that time has now been verified. Long summer means that the sun began to shine directly into the northern hemisphere, and the solar radiation received by most parts of the northern hemisphere increased rapidly, and the rocks and soil on the surface heated up rapidly under the action of solar radiation. However, the increasing greenhouse effect makes it impossible to dissipate the heat accumulated on the surface, which leads to the continuous rise of the surface temperature and heats the air on the surface, which makes the temperature of human living space rise abnormally and makes people feel hot. In late May, the rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina increased the precipitation in East Asia, and alleviated the warming in southeast China to some extent, otherwise the weather would be even hotter. Liaoning Daily: As we mentioned earlier, the northern hemisphere is experiencing intense heat, while the southern hemisphere is colder than normal. Is there any connection between them? Kuang Yaoqiu: It is the heat in our northern hemisphere that causes the cold in the southern hemisphere. When the summer sun shines in the northern hemisphere, the greenhouse effect in the northern hemisphere is obviously stronger than that in the southern hemisphere. The temperature rise in the northern hemisphere will inevitably heat the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere, and the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere will inevitably expand because of the temperature rise. This is the principle that gas expands with heat and contracts with cold, which is known to middle school students. The earth's atmosphere moves freely on the whole earth's surface. The expansion of the northern hemisphere atmosphere will inevitably lead to the compression of the southern hemisphere atmosphere. The result of gas compression is an increase in density, and the result of density increase is greater gravity, so it will produce downward flow. As we know, the temperature of the troposphere atmosphere decreases with height, with a drop of 6℃ per 1000 meters. The sinking of the upper atmosphere is the drop of cold air at high altitude, which will inevitably lead to the drop of local temperature and make people feel cold. Liaoning Daily: You said that the greenhouse effect made the northern hemisphere cold zone expand southward, so will it make the tropics move northward now? What kind of scope is it? Kuang Yaoqiu: I did say that the greenhouse effect makes the cold region in the northern hemisphere expand southward in winter, and it does make the tropics move northward in summer. After the greenhouse effect is strengthened, in summer, direct sunlight leads to heat accumulation in the northern hemisphere, which makes the northern hemisphere hotter and hotter, and the hot zone will inevitably move northward; In winter, the cold high pressure in the Arctic circle increases correspondingly, and the cold zone will inevitably expand southward, and the northern cold zone in geography and climatology will also expand southward. We call it the southward expansion of the frigid zone. However, if you want to draw a new cold zone or tropical boundary with a latitude line, it is not available at present, because the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has not stabilized, the greenhouse effect is still strengthening, and the migration of climate zones has not stopped. In addition, climate zoning is not entirely determined by latitude, and altitude is also an important factor in determining climate zoning. Secondly, the distribution of mountains and water bodies and the intensity of geothermal energy will affect the climate of a region. From June/KLOC-0 to July 4 this year, the average number of high temperature days in Heilongjiang Province reached 4.7 days, indicating that the summer in Heilongjiang is getting closer to the tropical summer. Of course, the temperature at night is still different from that in the tropics. Liaoning Daily: We found such a phenomenon: In some places, Leng Xia is hot in winter, and the time of winter and summer is longer than before, but the spring and autumn when the temperature is suitable is greatly shortened. Kuang Yaoqiu: That's true, because there are only 365 days in a year, and the time in winter and summer is prolonged, and the time in spring and autumn is naturally shortened. For example, Beijing's winter climate characteristics began to appear at the end of last year 10, and ended in late April this year for nearly half a year, while the summer climate characteristics appeared in May. Some media joked that the spring in Beijing was omitted this year. In fact, last autumn was also omitted. In many parts of North China, the autumn leaves have not turned yellow, but the snow has gone away. There will be more extreme weather events. Liaoning Daily: I feel that there are many floods and droughts this year, and they appear alternately, that is, extreme weather is frequent. Is it the same in other parts of the northern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: There are indeed many floods and droughts this year, especially the drought in southwest China before April, the snowstorm and snowmelt flood in northern Xinjiang and the floods in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi and Guangdong since May, which have left a deep impression on people. During the drought in southwest China before April, neighboring Southeast Asia was not spared, and Myanmar, Laos, eastern India and Bangladesh all suffered severe droughts. Central Asia, like northern Xinjiang, has seen an obvious increase in rain and snow, resulting in serious floods. Since May this year, during the severe floods in southern China, some European countries have not been spared. The continuous heavy rainfall in the southeast of Poland in late May caused the water level of the Vistula River to rise rapidly, which led to the destruction of a large area of farmland in the southeast across the river from the towns of San Dammeyer, SoKornicki and Gorzice, with the length exceeding 10 km. Liaoning Daily: Are these extreme weather events related to the greenhouse effect? Kuang Yaoqiu: The drought and flood disasters you mentioned are related to the El Ni? o phenomenon (abnormal increase of sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific) and La Ni? a phenomenon (abnormal decrease of sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific) in the Pacific Ocean. A few years ago, China was affected by El Nino, and the area south of the Yangtze River was in a state of drought. El Nino moved westward this year, so before May this year, there was a severe drought in southwest China. In late May, after the El Ni? o phenomenon ended, it quickly turned into La Ni? a phenomenon. Under the control of La Nina phenomenon, there will be large-scale precipitation in the Yangtze River basin in China, causing floods. Speaking of El Nino and La Nina, they are all related to the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East and Pacific Ocean. The greenhouse effect indirectly affects the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific: this year, the weather in the northern hemisphere is hot, and the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere is heated and expanded, resulting in the compression of the atmosphere in the southern hemisphere. The downward flow of the Antarctic enhances the evaporation of seawater near the Antarctic, which makes the salinity of surface seawater increase, the temperature decrease, the density increase, and the seawater sinks, forming the Antarctic underflow. This high-oxygen Antarctic undercurrent slowly moves towards the equator. In the process of moving, the organic matter in the seabed sediments is oxidized to produce carbon dioxide, which accumulates to a certain extent, just like the soda we drink, producing carbon dioxide bubbles. These bubbles bring the cold water in the deep ocean to the sea surface during the rising process, which reduces the temperature of the surface seawater in equatorial waters, thus triggering La Nina phenomenon. These extreme weather events are not directly caused by the greenhouse effect, but they are also the result of the greenhouse effect. Liaoning Daily: The coming of intense heat has to make us think: Will glaciers in low latitudes, such as those in the Himalayas, melt? Kuang Yaoqiu: The enhancement of the greenhouse effect does have a great impact on glaciers at low latitudes. The snow line (the lower limit of perennial snow, that is, the balance line of annual snowfall and annual melting) will move up, but it will move down in winter. Generally speaking, it is to expand the scope of the freezing and thawing area. If the height of the mountain is lower than the height of the summer snow line, all the glaciers on the mountain will melt; If the height of the mountain is higher than the height of the snow line in summer, the glaciers on the mountain will not melt completely, but will only retreat. Glaciers in the Himalayas will retreat in summer, but they may advance in winter and will not melt completely. Liaoning Daily: It is reported that the high temperature in summer leads to the reduction of crop production and grain production. Kuang Yaoqiu: The influence of high temperature and heat on plants is obvious. Bauhinia, a native plant in Guangdong, belongs to evergreen broad-leaved plants. When it encounters high temperature above 38℃ for several days, its leaves will wither and even die. The impact of high temperature and summer heat on crops should also be relatively large. Different crops may have different effects, and relevant agricultural experts or plant protection experts will have more say on which crops are affected. The cool summer will last until the end of September, and then the cold winter will be even colder. Liaoning Daily: Are we going to spend the next few months in the heat, or will it ease? Kuang Yaoqiu: We may spend the next few months mainly in high temperature. Of course, strong convective weather will bring some hail, tornado or rainstorm, which will alleviate the high temperature and heat, especially the rainfall brought by typhoon will obviously alleviate the high temperature and heat in southeast China. However, the decrease in the number of typhoons this year will not be conducive to the cooling in southeast China, and the high temperature weather in July-September may be more than in previous years. In addition, La Nina, which is developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, will bring more precipitation to China, which will help alleviate the high temperature and heat, and may even bring serious floods. The distribution of this precipitation depends on the intensity of La Nina: if it is strong, the influence range will be larger; If it is weak, it will mainly affect the area south of the Yangtze River. Usually at the end of September, when the sun returns to the south of the equator, the incident sunlight in the northern hemisphere will gradually decrease, and then the summer heat will end. Liaoning Daily: Will it be a severe winter next year? Kuang Yaoqiu: With the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect will also be enhanced. Next is the winter in the northern hemisphere. The summer temperature in the southern hemisphere may reach a new high, and there will be a hot summer, while the northern hemisphere will face another cold winter, perhaps a colder winter. Of course, the degree of cold will be different in different areas, and some areas may get warmer due to factors such as vegetation distribution and geothermal activity.