Corn has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is still "elusive". What about wheat?

Shandong corn continues to rise. Although the increase is not large, driven by this sentiment, corn gradually shows signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

This also made the market finally breathe a sigh of relief.

But I don’t dare to take a big breath, because the subsequent trend of corn is not clear and even unpredictable.

First, judging from the current market, the price of corn in Shandong has given up all the increases since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and is basically getting closer to last year's price.

However, costs in all aspects have risen this year, exceeding traders' warehouse building costs, so the room for corn to fall has become limited.

Since it cannot fall, it can only wait for the rise, but on the other hand, the driving force for the rise is not strong.

Although the domestic and foreign futures markets have shown an upward trend in recent days, after analysis, the main reason is that the northern hemisphere is experiencing extreme drought, many countries have released signals of reducing grain production, and some capital has taken advantage of the opportunity. Increased weather speculation has caused market sentiment to fluctuate again, triggering a rise in futures prices.

But we have said that the final decision on the trend of domestic corn depends on the supply and demand of the domestic market.

On the supply side, imported corn has declined year-on-year this year due to price and other reasons, but the decline is not too large, and the quantity of other imported substitute grains such as sorghum and broken rice has increased significantly.

Coupled with the nearly 30 million tons of imported corn last year and this year’s directional rice auction, the supply of corn can be said to be relatively abundant.

On the other hand, the current biggest demand for corn still falls in the field of feed breeding. However, the general market view on pig prices in the second half of the year is that even if there is room for growth, the ceiling for growth is still relatively obvious. , so this also means that the demand for breeding has increased, but there is a high probability that there will not be a surge.

So, given the fundamentals of supply exceeding demand, it is more difficult for corn to return to the bull market.

Especially for traders this year, this year’s corn will be more difficult to produce.

On the eve of the launch of new season corn, corn has continued to fall deeply, and the trend is unclear. It is difficult to see the bottom of corn, which may affect the later construction of warehouses. Therefore, the trend of new corn in the early stage of this year may be affected. There is great uncertainty and even repression.

On the other hand, there are many traders who deal in corn and also deal in wheat.

The trend of corn is unpredictable, but wheat has also been falling recently.

So, coming to September, will wheat still have a chance?

As of the middle of this month, according to data released by the State Grain and Material Reserves Bureau, grain companies in major producing areas have purchased a total of 47.87 million tons of wheat, an increase of 570,000 tons year-on-year.

As September enters, corn will gradually enter the harvesting stage from south to north, but wheat prices have been difficult to recover, thus intensifying traders' willingness to clear positions.

In addition, since wheat has withdrawn from replacing corn, the demand has become relatively single.

This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, income has declined, and downstream flour consumption has shown the characteristics of a slow peak season. School resumption, Mid-Autumn Festival stocking, etc. have failed to make a splash in the market, and companies are not willing to make acquisitions. Naturally, it is difficult to adjust the price.

1 In fact, the weak peak season for downstream wheat consumption is not unique to this year.

In recent years, with the changes in people's dietary structure, the consumption of staple grains has gradually decreased, and the demand for meat, eggs and milk has gradually increased. The demand trend of the wheat market in the off-peak and peak seasons has become increasingly flat. .

Coupled with the decline in income, it is even more difficult to revive consumption.

Therefore, in September, the trend of corn is still unclear, and the wheat market is also worrying, and there is a high probability that it will maintain a weak and volatile trend.