Some people say that the earth was destroyed in 20 12. The reason is that the geomagnetic field will reverse, so the earth will be destroyed. I want to ask, can the geomagnetic field be inverted? Why?

Experts explain that 20 12 solar storm caused the end of the world?

?

Reporter: China meteorologist Wang.

Sohu reporter Luo Park

[Tourist]: Wang Jinsong, director of National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center of China National Meteorological Administration.

? China Academy of Sciences Space Environment Prediction Center, deputy director of the National Astronomical Observatory Key Laboratory of Solar Activities, and researcher Wang Huaning.

?

Luo park? Recently, a movie, which was particularly popular, was regarded as the American disaster blockbuster "20 12". There are some phenomena, such as solar storm, nine planets conjunction, asteroid hitting the earth, earthquake, biblical flood and scenes in a series of movies, such as the waves sweeping the world. Many users demand that 20 12 is the end of the world, and the movie scenes at the end of the year will not be staged in reality?

?

? It is a great honor to have two experts, the director of China National Meteorological Administration, Wang Jinsong, the National Center for Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning, the deputy director of the Center for Science and Space Environment Research and Prediction of China Academy of Sciences, and the researcher Wang Huaning, the National Astronomical Observatory and the Key Laboratory of Solar Activities of China Academy of Sciences. It is a great honor for you to be our guest, and Wang from China Meteorological Bureau also welcomes you.

?

? How credible is "20 12"? Explain from a scientific point of view that asteroids hit the earth. Is it possible for solar eruption, nine planets connection and geomagnetic reversal to end the world at the end of 20 12? First of all, I would like to ask researcher Wang Huaning, from a scientific point of view, is there any scientific basis for the film 20 12?

Is there a phenomenon with scientific basis in "20 12", even though the event will not be a devastating disaster?

?

? Wang Huaning: From a scientific point of view, the film "20 12" has no scientific basis. The film mentioned, "Because of the solar neutrinos, the earth absorbed the earth, and a huge thermal change brought a huge disaster to the earth." The sun is a very ordinary star, so it is impossible to produce the so-called movie Neutrino, which is said to be a myth.

?

? Wang Jinsong: Sky Telescope magazine predicts that if you are interested in this article, you can find some so-called science and future original text analysis in the English-speaking world or ancient culture of China National Astronomical Journal. We suggest that everyone come and have a look.

?

? Wang: In the movie, a story is "nine planets is connected". Is there such a phenomenon in the view of natural history?

?

? Wang Huaning: "nine planets is connected and God helps" is a planetary phenomenon in the geometric arrangement of the solar system. There is almost no chance that the distribution of the nine planets in their respective orbits will be a straight line. For example, the calculation results show that if you want nine suns on a sector with an angle of 15 degrees, there is only one planet 60,000 years ago. It is estimated that 2 145 may be a sector where several planets are distributed at 15 degrees at a time. Now, at least there is no data record to prove that they are a disaster in this position.

? Wang: "neutrinos on the earth are the center of the earth's temperature and the shadow caused by disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions." What is the concept that neutrinos are so powerful?

?

? Wang Huaning: It is very unlikely that a particle will interact with other substances. Although it has a certain mass in science, as far as the earth is concerned, the possibility of it absorbing neutrinos is still very small. For example, if we arrange tens of thousands of people or even dozens of earths in a row, a large number of neutrinos can still easily pass through. So in this case, neutrinos are hard to be absorbed by the earth's crust, let alone heat the earth's core.

?

? Wang: In the movie, also known as the polarity reversal of the earth's magnetic field, scientists found that the geomagnetic direction in the north-south direction has changed hundreds of times in the 4.5 billion-year history of the earth. Doesn't this mean that the geomagnetic reversal film may be at 20 12?

?

? Wang Jinsong: According to records, in the past, the earth discovered 17 1 geomagnetic reversal, and it finally happened. Seventy years later, the whole 17 1 geomagnetic inversion is irregular. However, in the average interval of the term, according to the long side of the last time, there is no scientific prediction of the possible annual geomagnetic offset when geomagnetic inversion occurs, which can be detected.

?

A sci-fi movie Journey to the Center of the Earth? I also talked about what would happen to the earth if the magnetic field suddenly disappeared. The geomagnetic field really disappeared, and all the released pigeons crashed into the building and died. These things may happen. In addition, the earth's magnetic field can prevent outer space, electrons, the earth's magnetic field and the atmosphere from protecting our planet. In the process of geomagnetic reversal, the intermediate temporary geomagnetic field disappears, so the satellite will be greatly affected and the aviation industry will also be affected. Especially in this period of human history, has there been any record of geomagnetic inversion and population density reduction? Geomagnetic inversion may be a series of consequences, but it has no destructive effect on the earth.

?

Wang Huaning: 1 is a slow process for human beings. Even in the shortest period, they can form the obvious polarity reversal of 1 once in a thousand years. It is a slow and gradual 1 process, not a process that needs to be emphasized in a disaster.

?

? Luo Park: There is no scientific basis for the sudden reversal of the geomagnetic field in a short time.

?

? Wang Huaning: This statement is difficult to establish. We know that the polarity reversal period of the solar magnetic field is 22 years, which is relatively short.

Wang Jinsong:? Even if it is reversed, human beings will not have a destructive impact, not a catastrophic event.

?

? Second, frequent monitoring of asteroid impacts on celestial bodies can basically be handled without danger.

?

? Luo Yuan: Some contents in the movie are really alarmist movies. Could an asteroid hit the earth?

?

? Wang Huaning: Small institutions have a great influence on celestial bodies. In the solar system, there are only very small-scale daily events. Such as the meteor shower on the earth, it is in the solar system that small celestial bodies are captured by the earth to form very small streets. As we know, there are many craters on the moon, which are the result of meteorite impact, so we call them craters. Earth, there may be an impact event. Fortunately, our monitoring methods are still relatively strong, and some large objects can be easily detected by telescopes or scientific means to give early warning and avoid disasters.

?

? Wang Jinsong: The moon broke the hole, but we didn't see it destroyed, let alone the earth. The earth is too small, and the crashed space junk has entered the atmosphere around the earth, which has been destroyed, and will not have any impact on the ground in the end. It is said that the Tunguska Big Bang caused devastating damage in Siberia, which should be possible. A planet of the right size may cause local damage, but then again, will it lead to the whole earth and destroy the whole mankind? There are two reasons. First of all, the probability is relatively small, but now it means enough monitoring, which means that it can be predicted, monitored and processed, which is easy for human beings to do. On the other hand, in fact, the comet has a slightly greater impact on the planet, because its orbit is relatively flat across the road and in the solar system, so it is easy to lead to collision events. Through continuous monitoring, no such danger was found.

?

? Luo Park: On February 10 this year, US and Russian satellites collided in space. The reason for the satellite orbital station should be fixed and can be monitored. Why didn't you know you were going to get hit? This is an event in expect the unexpected.

?

? Wang Jinsong: The orbit of the moon is fixed, and the hair of every satellite has a purpose. The so-called collision between US and Russian satellites, the collision between American satellites and Russian spacecraft fragments. According to the satellites in normal orbit, we can predict that those out-of-control spacecraft fragments need to be monitored. In other words, large debris, their orbits and orbital changes can be measured, calculated and forewarned. Relatively small aircraft are indeed unpredictable fragments, but they are inevitable. France has a satellite, which is a very thin stick. Break satellite fragments. The probability of this happening should be small, but it did happen. Monitoring and early warning are very important to avoid space debris. China is doing this kind of debris collision now. We know the possibility of collisions in space, but many of them are controllable.

? Wang: The debris analysis of China Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center does not mean that space needs to be controlled like ground traffic?

?

? Wang Jinsong: Controllable satellites are under very strict control. But for the problem of space junk and space junk, this is a thorny vested interest of the country. With more and more humanized space activities, space junk has also increased dramatically. Therefore, the international community should work together to implement the regulations on space waste management. But things in the sea are difficult to control, and even more difficult things are in space. For our country, we should have enough monitoring and early warning ability and avoid it appropriately. In order to avoid similar incidents, firstly, we should closely monitor these debris, and secondly, we should control our own ability to avoid satellites. Such as airplanes, have taken evasive measures. However, monitoring can't do some harm. There is really no effective method now, and maybe one day the income received by space junk may also be possible.

Third, the actual impact of solar storm on space communication power grid, and so on.

? Luo Park: The film has a description of a climate phenomenon, that is, a strong solar storm may lead to the end of the world, and our Sohu Science Channel also reported it. News, American scientists released a special report that the solar storm on September 22, 20 12 may lead to disaster on earth. According to the report, 90 seconds after the United States fell into a disaster crisis in some areas, it may be that the United States reduced economic losses to developing countries, amounting to trillions of dollars, which may take 4- 10 years to recover. I would like to ask two experts about the intensity of solar storms.

?

Wang Jinsong: I want to introduce April Fool's Day around this year. In Britain, a magazine published a report that the solar storm in 20 12 years may lead to the event you just mentioned. On September 22nd, 20 12 super solar storm, scientists think that the loss will be the earth. Before the report and after April Fool's Day, we didn't delve into it, but many scientists were very sensitive and caught up with the detailed analysis report. Actually, come out at this time? The movie "20 12" refers to the Mayan calendar and ends at 65438+February 2 1. The media often like to use coincidence to attract public attention. 20 12 September 22nd will be a solar storm.

?

? A strong solar storm broke out in 1859. Scientists say that the solar storm that broke out in 1859 occurred in present life, and it is difficult to measure what kind of disaster it will cause in economic and technical conditions. What I want to emphasize is that during the period of 20 12, magazines that fully explain this thing are more beautiful. We predict that 20 12 may be a peak of solar activity, and scientists say it will be a super solar storm.

?

? Wang Huaning: For example, solar storms, solar activities and solar activities are all activities of solar anomalies, such as sunspots, but sunspots are not explosive phenomena. The sunspot itself is a manifestation of long-term statistics on the level of solar activity. A large number of sunspots are more likely to erupt on the sun. A large-scale solar eruption has a chain reaction from the sun to the earth. Large-scale outbreak, solar storm from the sun affects all areas of the space solar system, which is caused by strong changes in the space environment.

?

? How powerful is the solar storm? From the perspective of the sun alone, it is still very powerful. This is what can be described as releasing energy: everyone can drop one or two hydrogen bombs on the earth. However, these energies will not fall to the earth at once. Only when the earth is in the direction of its energy explosion can it accept some energy. The solar storm that the earth is looking for in this area is very small, and the energy of the solar explosion is only a small part. Last year's solar burst could not completely reach the earth, so it would not cause a devastating disaster to the earth. Planets with solar bursts do have many problems, such as the low level of human development and the solar bursts that human beings can't perceive. Now, our satellites, astronauts, travel in space. When the sun emits a large number of charged particles, solar storms will have a very serious impact on satellites, astronauts and various aircraft, especially on the health of astronauts.

?

? In addition, the communication system, we now have various needs of mobile phones, GPS navigation, and the use of radio signals. It doesn't matter much if you can't do this, but now that you have communication equipment, it is certain that communication signals will cause more interference. For example, German planes were detected by radar in Britain during World War II. The main radar alarm, thinking that the German plane bombed, found that the sun generated a prank.

?

In fact, this phenomenon often happens. We must first find out what the solar storm is caused by, right? Another example is Canada's power grid, which is more vulnerable to shocks at high latitudes. Now, we need to consider what kind of impact the solar storm with a larger scale will have on the power grid. Everything, with the progress of human society, depends more on high-tech systems. Solar storms affect our human society. We should be vigilant through the influence of high-tech systems. We are now engaged in important space weather monitoring and forecasting.

?

? Wang Su Qin: "Plan to forecast the weather in space. What kind of plan is this? "

? Wang Jinsong: Solar Storm Monitoring Plan. According to the most prestigious science magazine in the United States, this is an evaluation of China's most ambitious space program. Third, this satellite is called 1, which is located on the connecting line between the sun and the earth, with a distance of1.5000 km. The satellite is basically fixed in this position. No matter how the earth revolves around the sun, the satellite between the sun and the earth will never see the sun. The legendary Kuafu is chasing the sun, and Kuafu plans to "get its name from now on".

?

? "Before Kuafu, these effects had not reached the earth monitoring, and solar activities were continuously monitored for 24 hours. In addition, there are two "Kuafu B" satellites, both of which are above the yoke in orbit, which can ensure that the satellite is only in the last place and the other satellite is put into orbit at apogee, thus ensuring that at least the satellite can see the Arctic region of the earth at any time. As we know, the earth's magnetic field has two magnetic poles, from the inside of the earth to the outside, and the collection of the inside of the earth. Charged particles produced by the sun pass through the magnetic field. So the earth's magnetic field protects the surface of life on earth. The problem is that the magnetic lines of the two poles of the earth's magnetic field are perpendicular to the ground, and charged particles hit the aurora near the earth's surface along the magnetic lines, affecting the earth's atmosphere. This Antarctic and Arctic phenomenon. The magnetic field of the whole earth has changed as a whole, which will eventually be reflected in the aurora change. The aurora area is small, but it largely reflects the state of the whole earth's magnetic field. If we skillfully configure two satellites, at least you can see the changes of the Northern Lights completely, and then basically you can see the changes of the magnetic field around the earth for 24 hours, so it is Samsung.

?

? Wang: To what extent does Kuafu plan?

? Wang Jinsong: As early as 2002, Peking University completed the largest scientific experiment with minimal configuration, and received positive response at home and abroad. After several years of promotion, more than a dozen ministries and commissions including China International, the Federal Aviation Administration, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency have basically clarified the tripartite cooperation, and the United States has also clearly expressed its support for this matter.

?

? A series of work, such as satellite orbit, satellite, preparation of scientific instruments and operation mode of instruments, have been completed at present. We hope that solar energy will be the largest in the future, or our satellite will be launched later, or even serve all mankind.

?

? The gravity balance points mentioned just now, line, sun and earth, call the first Lagrangian point (L 1) on the international stage. There are two places in the world where satellites monitor solar storms, which is very, very important, but these satellites have been out of service and don't know the equipment for a day. Therefore, scientists say that we are facing a complete "blind spot" of solar storms. What will be the consequences, such as typhoons and storms, and we don't have any monitoring tools to monitor the time we don't know, so human beings suffer losses.

?

? Therefore, at this time, the "Kuafu Plan" can become the success of all mankind. In addition to its scientific satellite, another very important significance is that its time is a solar storm that only humans know. The place where satellite monitoring plays its role immediately stands out and attracts the attention of the world.

?

? Fourth, we need to focus on monitoring and early warning of space weather disasters, and we should also increase investment.

Luo park? : Space weather weather, why don't we feel it at ordinary times?

?

? Wang Jinsong: As long as there is sun and space weather. Why only talk about ordinary weather and space weather? Because we humans have not developed to be more sensitive. But we know that the biggest solar storm in 1859 was in Xianfeng for nine years. When the mobile phone first starts to use the system, it may be affected and almost does not appear.

? Wang Huaning: Even the power grid is very small.

?

? Wang Jinsong: Small-scale impact may not be significant. In the era of disastrous weather disasters in space, human beings are more developed, more advanced in technology and more influential. For example, during the period of 1859, several well-known solar storms and even some disasters occurred in 2003 and 2000. The level positioning of meteorological disasters in time and space is similar to 10. So it used to be 1859 and 100 yuan, but in a specific shock, we experienced the discovery of 100 yuan.

?

? Wang Huaning: On the other hand, it is conceivable that when many of our laboratories or Mars are built on the moon, people will go to the space station, the moon and Mars for work and travel. And when you go out, you should not only listen to the weather forecast, but also listen to the space weather forecast closely related to daily life.

? Luo Park: Has the technology developed in recent years caused serious space weather disasters?

?

Wang Jinsong: 1985, the whole Canadian power outage lasted for 9 hours, with heavy losses. 1 Very simple. Solar storms cause changes in the earth's magnetic field. As we all know, the change of magnetic field produces an electric field of 1. Is there much electric field? Or 20 volts per kilometer and 20 millivolts per Mi Yue, then the voltage of 1000 kilometers is 240,000 volts, resulting in power failure.

?

? Wang Huaning: Assessment results of 40% solar storm failure of spacecraft.

?

? Luo Park: 20 12 may be the peak year of solar activity. Is 20 12 not suitable for launching spacecraft?

? Wang Huaning: The analysis of observation data shows that the peak year of solar activity may be in the late period of 20 12 years, about 20 13 years, and there may be an error of half a year to one year. The change of our solar activity cycle and the complete number of solar activity weeks have been called 24 solar activity weeks until the 24th, and the activity intensity of solar activity weeks may be higher than 23, 22, 2 1, 20, 19 weeks. You think, the possibility of such frequent solar eruptions is relatively small, but some large-scale solar storms are not ruled out.

?

? From the generation to the end of a solar storm, it is only a few hours, and the length may be several days, so it is always a solar storm to be vigilant.

?

? Luo Park: As a space power, China should pay special attention to the early warning of space weather. How does China's space weather early warning level compare with the international advanced level?

? Wang Huaning: It is completely open in global space weather forecast and space weather forecast information. Global space weather forecasters often use space weather forecasting technology to bring China's space weather forecasting level into line with the existing international level and exchange information with international counterparts at the same level. In terms of space environment, service organizations and international organizations, the 12 interval space early warning center has been established all over the world, distributed in different locations on five continents, with one in Beijing. You can be a 12 regional early warning center, and release space weather information almost every two hours or longer. However, speaking of the horizontal gap, frankly speaking, our country has invested too little in space weather observation and monitoring. In this field, we have a "Kuafu Plan", as well as plans such as space solar telescope, but only plan to have a lot of sunshine and space environment observation satellites in the sky abroad. ? China should try to send its own space weather monitoring equipment into space.

?

? Wang Jinsong: On the other hand, in fact, the current space weather forecast is easily linked with the weather forecast, which is equivalent to the space weather forecast of our human beings 50 years ago. It is in a state of obvious progress, but it is not enough to reflect the overall technological development to meet human needs. This state, of course, if the loss of space activities increases, the catastrophic events of space weather will become more and more serious, so human beings will pay more and more attention to it, which is an inevitable trend. From China's point of view, the first thing that comes to mind is a problem. If there is a disaster, the first question is, can you predict it? Whether this prediction is thin in terms of head air must be based on Mr. Wang as a monitoring tool. If I can't even monitor it, is there a weather satellite to tell me how to predict the weather and how to predict the rainstorm in some areas without weather radar? There is some controversy about our space weather forecast. Some people think that I have scientific observation data, and the deduction can't happen at the end of the year. Some people are experienced, even if the level of experience prediction is higher than the monitoring standard. Secondly, for accurate prediction and monitoring, the State Council authorized the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center to do this. We also have a lot of money for monitoring and forecasting. We have 50 years of forecasting experience and history, and we have made a lot of efforts, and the basic level of forecasting is worse than others in the world.

?

? At present, the level of solar activity is very low. From 1900, at this time, few people knew that a group of scientists were forecasting and warning space weather. Needless to say, the level of solar activity is low, and space weather has not caused great disasters. In fact, we have encountered changes in the space weather environment, and a satellite or a satellite has failed. Because of some conditions, this monitoring is exactly when the solar activity is the lowest, and we did it. As mentioned above, the problem about space weather is weather, why not? First of all, because you don't understand. For example, the power grid, we analyze some data, and there are some unknown faults corresponding to time in space weather events. But many people often don't know how much influence they have. In the whole society, the awareness of space weather is too low, so now many experts and academicians call for China's national knowledge of space weather to be considered, that is, space weather disasters. There are some difficulties, because they are real, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and thunderstorms, and there are a lot of data, which have little impact on China's national economy, but as long as China keeps developing, catastrophic events in space weather will be caused. At the national policy level, space weather is at this time. Space weather disasters pay attention to this matter, so that we have enough time to do this kind of thing. Once a disaster happens, we have a way to deal with it. The space weather disaster in the middle needs an amplifier for human beings, which is more and more sensitive. In China, the consequences of space weather system, space weather and solar storm 20 13 amplifier are more and more certain to be a high point.

?

? The occurrence of space weather disasters is inevitable, and it will have a greater and greater impact on the development of our human beings or our country. Our ability to cope with this disaster and reduce it depends on the contribution of today's knowledge to mankind and peace.

? Wang: The second meeting of the China Space/Space Weather Science Conference, the recommendation of the conference director issued by the Federation of Space Weather Forecasting Centers. Didn't this suggestion get everyone's approval? A consultation center will be set up in the near future to improve the level and ability of space weather forecasting as soon as possible?

? Wang Jinsong: In fact, the international community has been predicting the contribution of the results to the general practice of information. However, this is a very decentralized organization. Space weather monitoring and forecasting is China's strength at different points. For example, like the Academy of Sciences, space weather is well done, and some air environment forecasts are well done. This is not only a policy support, but also a support system. Members of space weather are very familiar with each other, but United, and we predict that back-end data can enjoy the highest level of results together. To do this, we first need to build a core team, including the highest-level scientists from other departments. Secondly, we need to create a good mechanism, which is different from the weather forecast, this event or the current decentralized state. We must have a reasonable mechanism with a reasonable mechanism as the core. Then we made a more open platform for people all over the world to participate. Finally, China National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center will become a good platform to improve the level of space weather forecasting in China. This is very meaningful, and we are actively promoting it.