What is the forecast of 20 1 1 year accumulated temperature in gannan county area of Qiqihar City (the third accumulated temperature zone)?

20 1 1 At the beginning of the year, Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau organized an annual analysis meeting and an annual analysis meeting of short-term climate prediction respectively, and seriously discussed the previous climate situation, annual climate prediction and annual situation. According to comprehensive analysis, this year's precipitation is normal, the temperature is slightly higher, the heat is sufficient during the growing period, and the overall meteorological conditions are better than normal and slightly worse than last year, which is a bumper harvest year (compared with the average of the last five years). The main disasters affecting agricultural production in Heilongjiang province are: local drought in the west in spring, waterlogging in some areas in the east, and staged low temperature in the late spring; Staged drought in summer, local flooding in late summer; Early frost in autumn

I. General trends in weather and climate

It is estimated that the general climate trend of the whole province from 2065438+065438+00 to 2065438+00: the temperature is slightly higher, and the heat during the growing period is higher than normal, less than last year; The precipitation is normal.

Spring: The precipitation in most areas in spring is slightly more than that in last year, and it is mainly in late spring, among which the southern Daxinganling, Heihe, southern Yichun, Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Harbin, eastern Jiamusi, eastern Shuangyashan, Mudanjiang and Jixi are more than normal 1%, while other areas are less than normal1~ 20%; In spring, the average temperature in most parts of the province is close to normal, with frequent cold air activities in early spring and late spring, obvious stage cooling process and slightly lower temperature all the year round; The final frost is normal.

Summer: The precipitation in summer is normal, mainly local precipitation, and relatively concentrated in the late summer, in which southern Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe and Jixi are more than normal 1%, while other areas are less than normal 1%; The temperature in summer is slightly higher, and the average temperature in the province is about 0.5℃ higher than normal.

Autumn: the autumn precipitation in most parts of the province is less than normal1~ 20%; The temperature is slightly higher in autumn, and it has a downward trend in recent years. The average temperature in the whole province is 0.2 ~ 0.5℃ higher than normal, and the first frost is a little earlier than normal 1 ~ 3 days.

Second, the forecast and analysis of agrometeorological disasters

1. Local soil drought in spring and staged soil drought in summer in western China. In the autumn of 20 10, the average precipitation in Heilongjiang province is 40mm, which is 50% less than the same period of last year, which is not conducive to the increase of soil moisture. 20 10 (1 1.8) The measurement of soil moisture before the last freezing showed that the soil moisture in 34 counties and cities in southwest China (0 ~10 cm) was poor, and the soil in 9 counties and cities was in a state of severe drought, which had an important impact on the soil moisture after thawing in spring. From the first ten days of June to 5438+1the last ten days of October, Heilongjiang Province is covered with snow, and the depth of snow in the main agricultural areas is above 10cm, which is beneficial to soil moisture conservation in winter. According to the forecast, the precipitation in most dry areas in spring is about 1% higher than normal, which is beneficial to alleviate the drought. Based on the above analysis, it is estimated that the soil drought in Heilongjiang Province is mainly local during the spring sowing this year, and the dry area is mainly located in the west of Heilongjiang Province. It is predicted that some areas in Heilongjiang Province are short of water in summer, and it is more likely that field crops will encounter periodic drought at seedling stage.

2. Low temperature stage in late spring. It is predicted that the staged cooling process in late spring in Heilongjiang Province is obvious, which has a certain adverse effect on crop sowing and seedling emergence.

3. Short-term waterlogging in the east in spring and local flooding in late summer.

4. Different degrees of pests and diseases may occur in the local area.

5. There are sudden disasters such as hail, rainstorm and debris flow in the local area.

Thirdly, the influence of meteorological conditions on agricultural production is analyzed.

1. sowing date: According to the above analysis, the meteorological conditions in the spring sowing date this year have certain adverse effects on sowing. It should be noted that the staged low temperature in late spring will affect the normal sowing and emergence in most areas, and may reduce the emergence rate. Secondly, pay attention to local soil drought in the west and short-term waterlogging in some areas in the east, which will not be conducive to timely sowing of field crops and affect sowing quality.

2. Field growing period: This year's meteorological conditions are more favorable for the growth of field crops. The precipitation is normal and the temperature is slightly higher in the whole summer, and crops can grow vigorously in most areas. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, precipitation is mainly concentrated in midsummer, so periodic drought, waterlogging, local pests and diseases, hail, heavy rain and so on will have a certain adverse impact on the normal growth and development of local crops.

3. Filling maturity: The autumn temperature is slightly higher, and the precipitation in most parts of the province is less than normal1~ 20%, which is very beneficial to the grain filling maturity of crops. However, the first frost is 1 ~ 3 days earlier than normal, so it is not easy for extremely late-maturing crops to mature safely.

Four. Suggestions on agricultural production

It is suggested that this year's agricultural production deployment and disaster prevention and mitigation should focus on drought resistance, waterlogging prevention and post-spring low temperature prevention.

1. When selecting crop varieties, we must fully consider the heat conditions of local crops in the growing period. Although the heat condition this year is slightly more than normal, it is not as good as last year. Therefore, it is suggested that all localities should prohibit cross-regional planting, reasonably mix early, middle and late-maturing varieties, and try not to plant extremely late-maturing varieties.

2. Carefully prepare for spring ploughing, select seeds in advance, overhaul agricultural machinery and tools, seize favorable weather and carry out farming activities such as land preparation, harrowing and manure delivery as soon as possible.

3. It is suggested to do a good job in spring sowing. In arid areas, especially in the western part of Heilongjiang Province, we should focus on preserving, increasing and grabbing water, intercept peach blossom water, make full use of rainwater resources, and strive to sow seedlings at one time. Pay attention to drainage and ploughing, disperse soil moisture in the eastern waterlogged area, raise ground temperature, and strive for timely spring sowing; At the same time, prepare for low temperature in late spring, and take measures such as covering and smoking to prevent low temperature when necessary to ensure normal sowing of crops.

4. All localities should pay close attention to the changes in the weather situation, strengthen field management, scientifically shovel and transport, and rationally fertilize to ensure the normal growth and development of crops.

5. In summer, Heilongjiang Province is prone to hail, gale, rainstorm and other disasters. Where conditions permit, preparations should be made for hail suppression, waterlogging prevention and staged drought relief as soon as possible, with special attention to the prevention and control of agricultural pests and diseases.