What is the real reason for the outbreak of the Kosovo war?

The internal cause of the Kosovo war is long-term ethnic contradictions. Kosovo is an autonomous province of Serbia, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with an area of 10000 square kilometers and a population of about 2 million, of which 90% are Albanians and less than 10% are Serbs. Because Albanian separatists advocate the establishment of a "Republic of Kosovo" and want to merge with Albania, their illegal armed "Kosovo Liberation Army" brutally killed Serbian soldiers and civilians. Of course, the Serbian government can't sit idly by and resolutely suppress Albanian separatists, which triggered the Kosovo crisis and eventually turned into a war because of the intervention of NATO led by the United States.

The external cause of the Kosovo war is the need of western powers headed by the United States to seek their own strategic interests.

In the 1990s, the cold war ended, the high-tech industrial revolution flourished, various forces in the world accelerated their reorganization, and multi-polarization made new progress, but the "one-superpower" status of the United States did not waver. The strategic imbalance between developed and developing countries has intensified, and the contradiction between interference and anti-interference has become more prominent. The world military field is undergoing profound changes, and the military superiority gained by developed countries has become an important means to promote power politics.

Under this background, the western countries led by the United States are pursuing an all-round expansion strategy in Europe in politics, economy, diplomacy, military affairs and ideology, which has formed sharp strategic conflicts with Balkan countries, Yugoslavia and the United States, which insist on independence and safeguard national unity. With the emergence of Kosovo's independence within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, western countries took the opportunity to intervene heavily, which led to the comprehensive intensification of contradictions between the two sides. Yugoslavia insists on opposing the existence of multinational forces in Kosovo, and at the same time opposes NATO's support for the independence of ethnic Albanian separatist forces in the region and its interference in Yugoslavia's internal affairs, but it is rejected by NATO.

On March 23, NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana issued the order of large-scale air strikes against Yugoslavia, and the Kosovo war broke out. The essence of the war is the aggressive war launched by NATO group with new interventionism, which is the first large-scale military action taken by NATO against a sovereign country without the authorization of the United Nations in 50 years. Therefore, NATO has set a dangerous precedent.

postwar period

This war is roughly divided into four stages. That is, the first round of air strikes and national mobilization stage, the stage of increasing air strikes and supporting continuous operations, the stage of expanding air strikes and continuing tenacious resistance, the stage of continuing heavy air strikes and accepting ceasefire conditions.

The first stage of the war (1999 March 24 to March 27, lasting 4 days).

NATO: Launched the first round of air strikes against Yugoslavia and basically seized the air superiority.

FRY: Mobilize the whole country to fight against the enemy.

65438+1On the evening of March 24th, 1999 19: 55, NATO launched the first round of air strikes, focusing on the military targets of the Yugoslav army, such as air defense missile positions, radar stations, airports, command and control centers and communication systems, in an attempt to quickly paralyze the Yugoslav army's air defense system and fully seize the air superiority in the combat area, so as to ensure the safety of NATO aircraft's activities over Yugoslavia.

At this stage, NATO carried out four rounds of air strikes against Yugoslavia, with the main goal of destroying radars and power stations in various parts of Yugoslavia. Under the leadership of Milosevic's government, Yugoslav soldiers and civilians immediately mobilized the whole people, fought bravely against aggression, and shot down an F- 1 17A plane with Sam -3 anti-aircraft missiles. This is the first time that this type of aircraft has been shot down since it came out, which greatly boosted the morale of the Yugoslav military and civilians. At the same time, Yugoslav planes also took off to fight. However, due to the disparity in strength between the two sides, the South fighter plane was unable to compete with the enemy plane and suffered serious losses. Five advanced MIG -29 fighters were shot down one after another.

NATO * * * dispatched 1300 sorties, launched more than 400 cruise missiles, and used 98% precision guided weapons. It has basically adopted air superiority on the battlefield, but it has not fully achieved its operational purpose. Although Yugoslav air defense facilities have been severely damaged, the command system is still running, and the Yugoslav army has preserved its effective strength and war potential through mobile air defense.

2. The second stage of the war (1999 March 28th to April 4th, lasting 8 days).

NATO: Focus on the air defense system of Yugoslavia, and constantly increase air strikes.

Yugoslavia: Adjust the operational policy appropriately and persist in continuous operations.

On the afternoon of March 28th, US warships deployed in the Adriatic Sea first fired two cruise missiles at the military airport in Podgorica, Federal Republic of Montenegro, and then began the second phase of NATO operations. With the improvement of weather conditions in Yugoslavia, NATO has expanded the scale of air strikes, from intermittent air strikes in the past to 24-hour uninterrupted strikes.

At this stage, the determination and intensity of NATO air strikes far exceeded Yugoslavia's expectations. The Yugoslav army adjusted its operational policy and adopted the method of preserving itself and fighting for a long time, hiding heavy weapons and equipment such as planes, tanks and artillery in war preparation projects and air defense facilities in strategic locations, and cleverly setting up a large number of false targets and false positions, making it difficult for the enemy to distinguish between true and false; Further strengthen ground air defense; Continue to prepare for ground operations, lay a large number of mines in important passages in the border areas of Kosovo, and strengthen the defense forces on the border between South Malaysia and South Bulgaria; Continue to implement the "horseshoe plan" and launch a storm on the "Kosovo Liberation Army"; Strengthen intelligence work to prevent traitors. In the battle, the Confederate army made new achievements. On March 29th, three American special forces soldiers were captured. At the same time, Yugoslavia actively carried out political and diplomatic activities to win the sympathy and support of foreign aid and world public opinion. Due to the strong will of the Yugoslav army and civilians to resist the enemy, NATO's attempt to solve the Kosovo crisis by military means in a few days was completely bankrupt, and it was forced to send more troops to the theater, including an aircraft carrier formation, a B- 1B strategic bomber and more than 30 combat aircraft.

3. The third stage of the war (1999 lasted 53 days from April 5 to May 27)

NATO: Expand the scale of air strikes.

Yugoslavia: continue to fight tenaciously.

In order to strengthen the attack on Yugoslavia and achieve its war goal as soon as possible, NATO continues to send more troops to the war zone. By the end of this stage of combat operations, NATO has deployed more than 40 combat ships in the Adriatic Sea, with more than 1 100 aircraft participating in the war. The key targets of NATO's attack are: first, the command and control system of the Yugoslav army and air defense systems such as radar stations, missile positions and airports; Second, the military foundation of the Yugoslav army, with effective forces, tanks, artillery, armored vehicles and other heavy weapons and transportation equipment; Third, Yugoslavia's communication system, important traffic trunk lines and hubs, important industrial bases and other infrastructure and production equipment; However, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, the Air Force Air Defense Command and even the presidential residence are all important institutions in Yugoslavia.

At this stage, NATO also stepped up the implementation of economic sanctions against Yugoslavia, such as the maritime oil embargo, and widely used psychological warfare, electronic warfare, intelligence warfare and special operations.

Although Yugoslavia's overall air defense system has been severely damaged, it can still rely on small-scale air defense guerrilla groups to carry out air strikes against the enemy. While fighting tenaciously, Yugoslavia continued to strengthen its diplomatic struggle and accepted the support and assistance of the international community. Although Yugoslavia is fully engaged in the war of resistance, it is difficult to reverse the war situation and the form it faces is becoming more and more severe. First, the loss is huge. By May 22nd, NATO had dispatched 250,000 air strikes, causing more than 6,000 casualties and property losses of over US$ 654.38 billion. A large number of infrastructure such as bridges, roads, power plants and oil depots have seriously affected people's lives. Second, foreign aid is hopeless. Russia and other countries' support for Yugoslavia is limited to moral solidarity and humanitarian relief. Third, the surrounding security environment has deteriorated. Since the outbreak of the war, all countries bordering Yugoslavia have sided with NATO. Fourth, domestic pessimism and disappointment. The morale of some troops was low, and there were several mutinies or defections. The opposition party also took the opportunity to attack, demanding that the government reach an agreement with NATO on Kosovo as soon as possible and end the war as soon as possible. Yugoslavia had to face up to the grim situation and actively seek other ways to end the war while continuing the war of resistance.

4. The fourth stage of the war (65438+May 28th to 65438+June 00th,14th)

NATO: Continue to maintain the momentum of fierce air strikes and weaken Yugoslavia's combat strength and war potential.

Yugoslavia: it is difficult to continue to resist and decided to accept the conditions of NATO peace talks conditionally.

1On May 28th, 1999, NATO carried out the most violent air raid since the outbreak of the war, with 792 sorties, which destroyed or damaged dozens of Yugoslav military targets, bridges, power plants and other infrastructure, resulting in power cuts and water cuts in many big cities. From June 1, NATO mainly focused on attacking Yugoslav ground forces, police forces, heavy weapons and equipment, air defense positions, airports and other military targets in Kosovo. At the same time, NATO threatened that if Yugoslavia did not accept NATO's conditions in the next three weeks, NATO would consider the possibility of ground action.

The indiscriminate bombing of NATO for more than two months has caused a huge war disaster to Yugoslavia, causing huge material losses and casualties. In the face of this war dominated by air strikes, the Yugoslav army adopted such tactics as evacuation, concealment and maneuver, which effectively preserved a considerable degree of combat strength. However, due to the weakness of national strength and the lack of counterattack weapons, the Yugoslav army was unable to defend against the enemy and retreated, and the economic infrastructure related to the national economy and people's livelihood was devastated. In this situation, the Yugoslav government held a high-level military and political meeting and decided to accept the agreement proposed by the G-8 to solve the Kosovo issue and negotiate a truce with NATO. On June 10, the Yugoslav army began to withdraw from Kosovo on a large scale in accordance with the withdrawal agreement. That night, Clark, the supreme commander of NATO's European Allied Forces, ordered the suspension of military strikes against Yugoslavia, ending 78 days of Kosovo.