The rise in pig prices has gradually stopped, and piglets fell by more than 1 yuan overnight. What happened to the pig market? The market outlook is here

The price of pigs across the country has been rising and suddenly stopped rising. Today, the rise in pig prices has gradually stopped, but yesterday it was still "red" and rising across the board. Farmers also said: "Now I really don’t understand, the price of pigs changes too fast.”

First of all, let’s take a look at the latest pig market conditions

According to Zhuhaoduo data monitoring, the national overseas three-yuan pig price today is 22.24 yuan/kg, which is the same as yesterday’s quotation.

Judging from the monitored pig price data in 31 provinces (municipalities) across the country, 10 out of 10 pig price trends today were up and 21 out of 10 were down. Pig price trends in various regions were clearly differentiated. Pig prices fell across the board in the eastern and northern regions, and in the western region. Pig prices in the southern region are temporarily stable.

Let’s look at piglets. Since mid-July, piglet prices have maintained a weak trend. Even though pig prices rebounded slightly in mid-to-late August, they still failed to drive up the piglet market! According to Zhuhaoduo data monitoring, the national price of 15kg piglets priced at three yuan per kilogram today is 45.03 yuan/kg, down 1.18 yuan/kg from yesterday. With such a large single-day drop, what happened again?

In terms of pork prices, according to data monitoring from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August 24 to 25, the average prices of pork in the national agricultural wholesale markets were 28.90 yuan/kg and 29.40 yuan/kg respectively, a single-day increase of 1.7%; The cool weather in the northern region has played an important role in the rise in pork prices, as well as the school season, holidays and other factors.

Secondly, let’s make a forecast of the future pig price trend based on the current pig market situation.

Judging from the latest quotations and trends of pigs, piglets, and pork above, the current pig market and piglet market are still in a volatile situation. Even if farmers shout "up" at the top of their lungs, the effect is not Not obvious; and the pork market has improved to a certain extent due to short-term positive factors. However, under the pressure of economic downturn, it still takes time to verify whether the benefits from the consumer side can be transmitted to the breeding side.

However, the industry still has bullish expectations for the pig market in September and October.

On the one hand, due to the high temperature weather in August in the southern region, farmers have to speed up the pace of production, which will reduce the production capacity supply from September to October to a certain extent, and consumer demand will increase in October. A certain increase will benefit the rise in pig prices to a certain extent.

On the other hand, high temperature weather also limits the total amount of secondary fattening. According to industry agency statistics, this year’s fattening amount is slightly lower than the same period in 2021. The overall supply of fattening pigs is limited. The price will most likely drive farmers to close the stalls in advance or carry out secondary fattening, which will exacerbate the supply gap of 9-10 shares in the market.

Although there are many benefits for pigs and pork in September and October, the piglet market is not so optimistic. According to the growth cycle of piglets, the corresponding slaughter time of piglets for replacement in September and October It is 1-2 months after the Spring Festival. It is usually the off-season for pork consumption, and pig prices generally fall to a certain extent. This will affect the total export volume of piglets in September and October, and in turn affect the rise in piglet prices.

Based on the above information, for the next pig market, the industry is more optimistic about the price of live pigs and pork. However, it is still cautious about the price of piglets. It is expected that from September to October The average price of live pigs and pork may be slightly higher than in August, while the price of piglets continues to remain weak. What do you think? Welcome to leave a message for discussion!