After laying down this small sandbank, will the Ukrainian army counterattack Crimea?

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has entered winter, is still at a stalemate recently. According to a recent report by the US "Power Network", the Ukrainian army has reached the west bank of the Dnieper River after retaking the city of Kherson and other places. Now they are fighting to dislodge Russian troops from their last stronghold in Nikolayev Oblast.

The Ukrainian army is now fighting to retake the Kimbern Spit, a sandbar located at the tip of the Kimbern Peninsula, a long and narrow peninsula that juts into the Black Sea, reports say. It is the strategic chokepoint of the Dnieper and South Bug rivers, controlling the main ports leading to the cities of Kherson and Nikolaev respectively.

"Dynamics Network" stated that the Kimburn Spit is only two miles away from Ochakiv Port, the easternmost Black Sea port in Ukraine. The U.S. Institute of War said Russian forces used the Kinburn Spit to conduct routine missile attacks and artillery strikes in southern Mykolaev Oblast and other areas of the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast.

The U.S. Institute of War Research said, “The Kimborn Spit is not within the 25-kilometer range of the 152 mm artillery assembled by the Russian army on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast. Controlling the Kimborn Spit will allow the Ukrainian army to mitigate Russia’s Strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea littoral, increased naval activity in the area, and potential operations on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, which would face much weaker Russian artillery fire than crossing the Dnieper. "

Bad weather is helping Ukraine," Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Combat Command, told Ukraine's Espreso TV station on Tuesday. "The sea helps us," she said. "The Russian army cannot gain a foothold there because the Ukrainian army will destroy the enemy's strongholds." Another factor in Ukraine's favor, she added, is that the Russian army has no hiding place. "The sandbank does not have room for a large number of buildings to help the armed men gain a foothold there and hold on."

The report said that when the Ukrainian army attacked the Kimburn Spit, they also attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Another drone strike was launched from the base camp of Sevastopol. While it remains to be seen how effective both operations will be, one thing is clear: Ukraine has its sights on Crimea.

"Dynamic Network" stated that the Dnieper River is located about 100 miles northwest of Crimea, and Ukrainian officials have always stated that they want to recapture Crimea. And Ukraine's significant advances on the Kimborn Peninsula will help its forces cross the Dnieper River, which may help them bypass some of the defensive positions that Russia established as it retreated east of the river. Ukraine's use of "Haimas" rockets allowed the Russians to revamp Crimea's logistics routes. At the same time, Russian troops in Crimea appear to be preparing for some kind of attack.

The Los Angeles Times reported that “Ukraine this month retook Kherson, north of Crimea, reigniting long-standing concerns about somehow retaking the Massachusetts-sized territory. hope for control of the peninsula.”

Extended reading:

Media: Ukraine’s hinterland has been hit hard and it may be difficult to solve Crimea before the end of the year

Ukraine wants to solve Crimea before the end of the year Mia's wish may not be easy to achieve.

While shrinking the front line, the Russian army launched a larger-scale attack on the infrastructure in the hinterland of Ukraine.

On the 24th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia launched a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine on the 23rd, causing a power outage throughout Ukraine. The situation in the capital Kiev is particularly serious, with all power and water supplies suspended. The people of Kiev, who were struggling in the rain, snow and cold wind, further felt the cruelty and ruthlessness of war and winter.

Although the Ukrainian army’s previous offensive was rapid and fierce, the Russian army’s series of attacks on the hinterland of Ukraine also showed that its combat power is still strong. Ukraine’s desire to resolve Crimea before the end of the year may not be easy to achieve.

The hinterland of Ukraine suffered a heavy blow

Since the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in late September and the Russian army has gradually withdrawn from strategic towns such as Izyum and Kherson, is the Russian army still viable? , became a hot topic on social media around the world.

The doubts are not groundless. On the one hand, the Crimean Bridge and the Russian naval and air force bases in Crimea were successively attacked, which made the outside world see the laxity of the Russian military's defense; on the other hand, although the Russian military later carried out a large-scale attack on the infrastructure in the hinterland of Ukraine, A large-scale strike, but Ukraine has repeatedly claimed that it has an interception success rate of more than 80% against Russian missiles, and has even demonstrated the ability to restore 80% of power in one hour.

However, just when Ukraine vowed to "solve the Crimean issue before the end of the year," the Russian army once again demonstrated its military capabilities.

On the evening of the 23rd, Kiev fell into darkness

Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media in the early morning of the 24th that in the past day, Russia launched 67 missiles into Ukraine A missile damaged Ukraine's infrastructure and caused a nationwide power outage. According to a statement from the Ukrainian Energy Ministry, the lack of electricity may affect heating and water supply, and maintenance departments are doing everything possible to restore power as soon as possible.

Ukraine’s National Nuclear Energy Corporation issued an announcement on the 23rd stating that due to the decrease in load on the Ukrainian power system, the emergency protection systems of the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant and the Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Plant were triggered, and all generating units are automatically closed.

The National Nuclear Energy Company of Ukraine specifically emphasized that the radiation levels at the locations of various nuclear power plants and adjacent areas have not changed, and all indicators are normal. Obviously, Ukraine is well aware that the safety of nuclear power is Europe's biggest concern.

On the 15th of this month, the day Zelensky delivered a video speech at the G20 Summit, Russia launched 85 missile strikes on Ukraine, one of the largest air strikes since the conflict broke out.

The Russian army demonstrates military manufacturing capabilities

It is worth noting that after this round of attacks, the repair of Ukraine's infrastructure has not been as fast as before.

According to Ukrainian media reports on the 24th, as of the morning of that day, power supply was still not restored in 70% of the urban areas of Kiev. Previously, Ukraine's Ministry of Energy stated in a statement that due to the scale of the damage, it may take a long time to restore power supply.

However, according to the Ukrainian military's statement on the 23rd, 51 of the 70 missiles launched by the Russian army on the 23rd were intercepted, and 5 attack drones were shot down. This data is slightly different from the 67 announced by Zelensky, but it can be ignored. Calculated based on Uzbek military data, the interception success rate is as high as 72.8%, which is quite impressive.

But here’s the problem – why did such a high success rate fail to prevent nationwide power outages? You must know that this is not the first time that the Russian military has carried out a missile attack of this scale, and it is not the first time that Ukraine has faced trouble in restoring power supply.

A reasonable explanation is that after repeated attacks by the Russian army, the personnel, materials and supplies used to repair infrastructure in Ukraine were rapidly consumed, so that the overall repair capability was declining. Another possibility is that Ukraine did not expect that the Russian military would still be able to launch such a large-scale missile strike, so that its repair capabilities were not quickly replenished.

For several months, Western observers have repeatedly predicted that the Russian military’s missile inventory will soon be exhausted, and it will even be forced to “remove chips from refrigerators and microwave ovens to manufacture missiles.” However, there are increasing signs that despite the difficulties faced, the Russian military’s manufacturing capabilities of precision-guided weapons cannot be underestimated.

According to Russian media reports on the 23rd, Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, inspected a Russian military-industrial enterprise called "Regional", which displayed a variety of precision-guided air bombs. Data show that these bombs can allow Russian military aircraft to carry out precise strikes at a safe altitude of 15,000 meters. Moreover, the cost of these bombs has been significantly reduced compared with missiles, making them more suitable for mass production.

Medvedev inspects the Ural Locomotive and Rolling Stock Plant

Whether or not Russia’s move involves strategic deception, it is certain that Russian military production is shifting to a wartime track. Its military potential remains huge. When Crimea is directly threatened, the Russian military's fighting spirit will be stimulated.

The "Invincible Center" cannot stop the severe cold in winter

On the day when the Russian army launched a new round of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, the European Parliament passed a resolution declaring that Russia "supports terrorism" socialist country".

The European Parliament stated that it passed this resolution in view of Russia’s actions on the Ukraine issue. Since the G20 summit, temperatures in Kiev and other places have plummeted to around 0°C, with rain and snow blowing. With water and electricity cut off at this time, one can imagine how difficult people’s lives are. Zelensky claimed that Russia’s goal is to “turn cold winters into weapons of mass destruction.”

Due to the huge damage to infrastructure, the Ukrainian government promised on the 23rd to provide 4,000 facilities across the country that can provide power and heating for a long time. Perhaps to boost morale, Zelensky named these points "Invincible Centers."

A glimpse of the "Invincible Center"

However, although the West stands with Ukraine in words, it actually tries to avoid being directly involved in the conflict. Earlier, Polish President Duda, who was fooled by the Russian comedian group "Wowan and Lexus", said frankly when he thought he was talking to French President Macron that he "does not want to go to war with Russia."

European Union The committee proposed on the 22nd that a natural gas price limit mechanism will be implemented from January next year. A senior official from the U.S. Treasury Department said on the 22nd that the G7 may soon announce a price cap for Russian oil exports. Compared with direct military intervention, such economic suppression better reflects the entanglements and concerns of Europe and the United States in their policies toward Russia.

Obviously, Ukraine and European and American countries cannot reconcile their differences in goals in a short period of time, and Russia has reasons why it cannot retreat further. This winter, artillery fire will rumble along both sides of the Dnieper River.

Produced by Deep Sea Zone Studio

Written by Deep Sea Turtle

Edited by Deep Sea Shell