Weather forecast 15 days, accuracy 15 days.

All weather forecasts are similar, but they all have certain accuracy.

Model weather forecast is to design a huge program to calculate weather forecast, and input the currently known weather phenomena, so that it can calculate the future atmospheric motion state and weather conditions.

The change of weather is the result of the change of atmospheric movement around the earth. The basic laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics in physics can be used to analyze the movement and change of the atmosphere, and these laws can be written into mathematical equations in mathematical language. By solving these mathematical equations with a large computer, people can predict the future air pressure, temperature, wind direction, wind speed and precipitation in a certain area.

Any forecasting model can't completely and truly simulate the evolution of the atmosphere, it can only be approximate, so there must be errors. Moreover, the error will accumulate, and the longer the prediction time, the greater the error.

Extended data:

Matters needing attention

The forecast of 1 and 8- 15 days is objectively revised, but it has not been subjectively revised by forecasters, so there is some uncertainty. It can be seen that it is very important for meteorologists to make subjective corrections according to their majors and experiences.

The weather forecast is revised within 2.7 days. Based on the data of current weather conditions obtained by artificial observation on the ground, high-altitude detection, radar satellite and ocean buoy station, the initial field of the model is closer to the actual situation, and the simulated atmospheric change characteristics are more reliable. But for the longer-term prediction, most of the data are completely generated by model calculation, and the credibility is gradually decreasing.