On the causes and possible measures of global change in China in combination with reality

Climate change is a major global issue of general concern to the international community. As a responsible developing country, China attaches great importance to climate change. Facing the increasingly severe climate change problems such as global warming, China has established a national coordination agency for climate change countermeasures according to the requirements of the national sustainable development strategy, and adopted a series of policies and measures related to climate change, which has made positive contributions to mitigating and adapting to climate change. However, there is still a long way to go. In the future, China will definitely take further measures on climate change, and it is also believed that the impact of climate change will become increasingly apparent. Countries work together to cope with climate change and promote green and low-carbon development to become the mainstream in the world today. Impact of global climate change: 1. The frequency of low-temperature weather (including day and night) and the first frost on land decreases, and the probability is above 90%. 2. The frequency of high temperature weather (including day and night) increases, and the possibility is over 90%. 3. Heat waves occur more frequently in most land areas, with a probability of more than 66%. 4. The occurrence rate of extremely high sea level increases, and the possibility exceeds 66%. 5. Since 1970s, the drought-affected area in the world has increased, and the probability of some areas has exceeded 66%. 6. Heat waves sweep most land areas more frequently, with a probability of more than 66%. 7. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic has increased since1970, and the probability in some areas exceeds 66%. Impact of global climate change on the future: 1. The possibility of shrinking snow area, accelerating melting of permafrost and decreasing sea ice is over 99%. 2. The frequency of extreme high temperature weather, heat wave and heavy precipitation increases, and the possibility is over 90%. 3. The intensity of tropical cyclone increases, and the possibility is greater than 66%. 4. The probability of precipitation increase in high latitudes is over 90%. 5. The possibility of precipitation reduction in subtropical land area is above 90%. 6. Many semi-arid areas, including the western United States and the Mediterranean basin, have reduced water resources, and the possibility is more than 90% [2] 1.3 The impact of global climate change on the global situation. Global climate change has brought unprecedented threats to human security and greatly impacted the traditional concept of security. As far as the concept of security is concerned, it is generally considered to include two basic aspects: traditional security and non-traditional security. The traditional security concept attaches importance to national security at the political and military levels, especially territorial security, and holds that the main means of maintaining security is military power, and war is the main way to solve contradictions and conflicts between countries; In the non-traditional security concept, other factors that threaten the survival and development of sovereign countries and their citizens, such as economic security, ecological environment security, information security and energy security, are emphasized. These problems are caused by non-political and non-military factors and have the characteristics of transnational and uncertainty.

China's policies and measures to deal with climate change 2. 1 Promoting energy conservation and emission reduction 1. Eliminating backward production capacity. From 2006 to 2008, China eliminated backward ironmaking capacity of 60.59 million tons, steelmaking capacity of 43.47 million tons, cement capacity of 65.438+0.4 billion tons and coke capacity of 64.45 million tons. By the first half of 2009, 54.07 million kilowatts of small thermal power units had been shut down, and the task of shutting down 50 million kilowatts of small thermal power units in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan was completed one and a half years ahead of schedule. The second is to optimize the energy structure. By 2008, the utilization of renewable energy in China reached 250 million tons of standard coal, ranking first in the world in terms of installed hydropower capacity, nuclear power scale under construction, heat collection area of solar water heaters and solar energy production capacity. The third is to promote technological progress. Accelerate the research and development of energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, and overcome a number of key and * * * technologies to promote energy conservation and emission reduction; Fully implement ten key energy-saving projects and key environmental control projects; Accelerate the establishment of energy-saving technical service system, implement contract energy management, and cultivate energy-saving and environmental protection service market. The fourth is to increase forest carbon sinks. Actively implement ecological construction and protection policies such as natural forest protection, returning farmland to forests and grasslands, grassland construction and management, and nature reserve construction, and further enhance the ability of forestry as a greenhouse gas sink. In the past five years, the forest stock in China has increased by nearly 1 100 million cubic meters per year. The forest coverage rate has increased from 14% in the early 1990s to 20%, and the artificial afforestation area ranks first in the world. The fifth is to strengthen basic management. Establish and improve the overall planning, monitoring and assessment system for energy conservation and emission reduction, and implement a strict accountability system; Implement the minimum energy efficiency standards for energy-consuming products and expand the scope of mandatory energy efficiency labeling; Do a good job in energy conservation of key energy-consuming enterprises such as electricity and steel, as well as construction, transportation industry and public institutions, and strengthen energy conservation management of key energy-consuming units; Carry out online monitoring of key pollution sources, promote pollution control in key river basins, and solve outstanding environmental problems; Vigorously develop circular economy and popularize the typical experience of different circular economy models. The sixth is to improve the policy mechanism. Set up special funds for energy conservation, and support key energy-saving projects, energy-efficient products, contract energy management, etc. in the form of "replacing compensation with awards". Implement tax reduction and exemption policies for enterprises that carry out energy conservation, develop circular economy and comprehensively utilize resources; For projects that solve outstanding environmental problems, the policy of "promoting governance with awards" will be implemented, and the finance will give some incentive funds; Study the ecological compensation mechanism in areas with heavy ecological protection tasks. [3] 2.2 The climate problem of sustainable development is closely related to sustainable development. Therefore, the China Municipal Government attaches great importance to climate change and has taken seven active measures: First, it has established a national climate change coordination agency. Second, actively participate in international negotiations on climate change. Third, a series of policies and measures have been taken to help slow down greenhouse gas emissions, such as formulating and implementing a sustainable development strategy, and taking climate change as an important part of the sustainable development strategy; Strive to improve energy efficiency; Actively develop high-quality energy and strive to improve the energy structure; Promote the utilization of new and renewable energy sources, and support the development and utilization of new and renewable energy sources such as biomass energy, solar energy, wind energy and geothermal energy in rural and remote areas; Carry out large-scale afforestation activities. Fourth, earnestly fulfill the specific obligations stipulated in the convention. Fifth, carry out climate change publicity and education activities to raise public awareness of climate change. Sixth, carry out scientific research on climate change. Seventh, prepare for the implementation of the Protocol. 2.3 Global Active Response to Climate Change Since the climate issue was put forward, a series of international conferences have been held to deal with climate issues. Recently, a new round of United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Durban, South Africa from1October 28th to February 9th, 165438+, which is another important meeting of international climate negotiations. The international community attaches great importance to this meeting. Before the meeting, relevant countries took actions to warm up and ventilate the meeting through multilateral and bilateral means. Since the beginning of this year, the parties concerned have held informal meetings on climate change negotiations in Bangkok, Bonn and Panama, strongly calling on all countries to strengthen "sincere negotiations" and strive to promote the expected results of the Durban Conference. Compared with Bangkok and Bonn, Panama Conference made remarkable progress and increased people's confidence in Durban Conference. African leaders took the World Economic Forum Africa Conference held in Cape Town in August this year as the stage and called on African countries to unite and cooperate, unify their positions and promote the success of the conference. In early September, Pacific island countries held a summit in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city, calling on Pacific island countries' forum members and the international community to strengthen cooperation on climate change and other issues. The autumn summit of EU leaders was held in Brussels on 10123 October. The meeting reached a unified negotiating position on Durban within the EU. The EU leaders attending the meeting unanimously stated that under certain conditions, the EU is willing to recognize the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and strive for a balanced and fruitful outcome of the Durban Conference on the basis of the outcome of the Cancun Climate Conference last year. The above statement made by EU leaders is a good thing for Durban Conference, which will help to enhance people's expectation and confidence for Durban Conference. Not long ago, the special envoy of the United States on climate change and the climate change official of the European Commission visited China successively to hold consultations with China on climate change issues and make preliminary preparations for the Durban Conference. As an important participant in the climate negotiations, the China government has always taken a positive attitude towards the negotiations, and has repeatedly expressed its willingness to work with all parties to promote the Durban International Climate Conference to achieve comprehensive, comprehensive and balanced results. It can be said that the global warm-up activities around Durban Conference are in full swing. However, due to the different interests of all parties, especially the lack of sense of responsibility and hesitation of some developed countries, the Durban Conference still faces many difficulties. First of all, whether the first commitment period and the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol can be organically connected is the core index to judge the success of the Durban Conference. However, some developed countries are unwilling to accept the second commitment period, trying to obliterate the achievements made by the international community in climate negotiations and build a brand-new framework and principles that are in line with their own interests. In this regard, developing countries resolutely refuse. Secondly, the financial and technical assistance promised by developed countries to developing countries lacks a guarantee mechanism and is difficult to implement. Especially after 20 13, the aid funds provided by developed countries to developing countries are still zero, and the negotiation task is extremely arduous. Third, the emission reduction targets of developed countries are still unresolved issues. The medium-term emission reduction targets proposed by developed countries during Cancun meeting are lower than the 25% to 40% emission reduction requirements proposed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. If developed countries can't promise to significantly increase the level of emission reduction, it will certainly hinder the negotiation process. [4] At present, from the point of view of countries' warm-up for Durban Conference, coping with climate change and practicing low-carbon development have become the focus of global attention and the consciousness of all countries in the world. The international community's enthusiasm for global change has not diminished, but enthusiasm alone is far from enough. In reality, it is even more necessary for relevant countries, especially developed countries, to take concrete actions to fulfill their commitments and promote the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Bali Road Map. 3 China has achieved positive results in coping with climate change 3. 1 Promote the development of new energy in China, especially the technological innovation of renewable energy. Effective development and utilization of new energy sources such as biomass energy, wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy is an important choice for China's strategic sustainable development. Vigorously developing low-carbon economy has effectively promoted the economic transformation of China and enhanced the competitiveness of energy enterprises. Promote the development of a harmonious socialist society. 3.2 Promoting Social Development In addition to actively responding to climate change by formulating and improving legislation, China has also effectively carried out law enforcement supervision on energy conservation and emission reduction and coping with climate change, and achieved remarkable results in energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2008, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in China decreased by 4.59% year-on-year, and the chemical oxygen demand and sulfur dioxide emissions decreased by 4.42% and 5.95% respectively. In the past three years, the energy consumption per unit GDP has decreased by 10.08%, and the chemical oxygen demand and sulfur dioxide emissions have decreased by 6.665%, 438+0% and 8.95% respectively. From 2006 to 2008, 2 1.57 million kilowatts of small thermal power and 0/.1.20 million small coal mines were shut down according to law, and 46.59 million tons of ironmaking capacity, 37.47 million tons of steelmaking capacity and 87 million tons of cement capacity were eliminated. The effectiveness of these efforts has made positive contributions to coping with global climate change and has been highly affirmed and evaluated by the international community. [5] 3.3 Enhance the international status China actively promotes international cooperation in dealing with global climate change. First of all, the active mediation of the China delegation injected impetus into the meeting. Through active communication with the basic four countries (China, India, Brazil and South Africa), the "Group of 77+China", the Alliance of Small Island States and some non-governmental organizations, mutual understanding and unity have been enhanced. At the same time, regarding the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the Green Climate Fund and other core issues, the China delegation communicated with the umbrella countries such as the United States and Australia respectively, which promoted the whole climate change negotiation process and safeguarded the interests of developing countries. Secondly, actively demonstrate China's efforts and achievements in tackling climate change. During the Durban Climate Conference, the China delegation held 23 side events, exchanges and publicity activities called "China Corner", which attracted a large number of delegates and media reporters. This is the first large-scale, all-round and three-dimensional exhibition and dialogue held by the China government delegation during the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which has become an important window for the outside world to deeply understand China's achievements in tackling climate change. Third, actively put forward a global initiative to address climate change. At the opening ceremony of the first day of Durban Conference, China made a speech on behalf of the basic four countries, and put forward the "principle of fairness", clearly pointing out that we should not only look at the total carbon dioxide emissions of countries, but also look at the per capita emissions and historical per capita cumulative emissions, so as to solve the climate change effect caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases fairly and justly. At the "China Corner" series of side events held on the 6th, Wang Yusuo, vice president of China Private Chamber of Commerce, released a global technical cooperation initiative with the theme of "Be kind to tomorrow, I can do it", advocating countries to increase investment in R&D and clean energy technology, which was fully recognized and supported by Duke Energy Company and other cooperative institutions. Fourth, it shows China's determination and sincerity to deal with climate change and promote international cooperation through practical actions. Just one month before the Durban Conference, the State Council, China discussed and approved the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and put forward the goal of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 65,438+07% by 2065,438+05 compared with 2065,438+00, which was praised by figueres, Executive Secretary of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. During the meeting, Xie Zhenhua, head of the China delegation, said that China can join the legally binding framework agreement after 2020 if five conditions are met. In addition, according to the representatives of China enterprises attending the meeting, under the guidance and promotion of China Municipal Government, China enterprises regard the development of low-carbon economy as the strategic focus of their enterprises, and the pursuit of maximizing the comprehensive value of economy, society and environment as the core element of their enterprise value, and take responsibility in their actions, which has actually made outstanding contributions to the global response to climate change and greatly improved China's international status [6]. China's Policy to Deal with Current and Future Climate Problems In my opinion, China still has a long way to go to deal with climate change. The following policies must be resolutely implemented. First, strengthen legal system construction and strategic planning. Formulate special laws to deal with climate change, and revise relevant laws, regulations, rules and standards according to the needs of climate change work. The second is to speed up economic restructuring. Through policy adjustment and system innovation, we will promote industrial optimization and upgrading and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. Restrain the excessive growth of industries with high energy consumption and high emissions. Third, vigorously develop circular economy. Further coordinate the low-carbon development strategy with other resources and environmental policies, support the research and development, demonstration and promotion of circular economy technology and capacity building, and strive to improve the resource output rate. Is to improve the ability to adapt to climate change. Pay attention to the capacity building to cope with extreme weather events, and improve the adaptation level of key land areas such as agriculture, forestry, water resources and health, as well as coastal and ecologically fragile areas to climate change. So as to play an active and constructive role, strive to promote the process of negotiation and judgment, and make important contributions to coping with global climate change.