How did the pseudoscience "earthquake cloud" become popular?

The "earthquake cloud" has always existed among the people, but it was later developed as a "theory", which was contributed by Japanese Mayor Tabokami Junlang.

Kenta Tazaburo used to be the mayor of Naraichi. It should be emphasized that he has no professional background in geology or meteorology.

Key areas Tazaburo (picture from his book Earthquake Clouds)

Since the 1940s, Tanada Saburo began to popularize the "earthquake cloud theory". He said, "On June 26th, the 23rd year of Showa, an abnormal cloud appeared over Naraichi, which was like a long black snake in color and shape, spanning the east-west direction. I caused a sensation when I predicted that there would be an earthquake. Two days later, a major earthquake occurred in Fukui, 0/60 km from Nara/Kloc. "

(Note: 14 At 5pm on June 28th, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck Ye Ping, Fukui, Japan, killing 3,895 people and leaving Fukui almost devastated. )

Ruins after Fukui earthquake (picture from network)

Kaneda Tansaburo named this cloud as an earthquake cloud, and said that two days before the Tangshan earthquake in China, an earthquake cloud "like splitting the sky in two" appeared in Kyushu.

The earthquake cloud is "like splitting the sky in half" (image from the Internet)

Kaneda Tansaburo predicted earthquakes by observing earthquake clouds for more than 30 years, claiming that he predicted three earthquakes of magnitude above 7 in Japan in 1948 and two earthquakes in 1979.

In 1980s, he co-authored the book Earthquake Clouds with Dajue Zhenguo of Kyushu University and Lu Dajiong of Institute of Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and published it at home 198 1.

The 1980s was the golden age of "earthquake clouds" in China. At that time, China had just ended a crazy era, and the scientific community was in an uproar; 1976 The fear and grief left by the Tangshan earthquake in China is so deep that the whole country is eager to find a way to predict the earthquake.

1976 Tangshan earthquake (picture from the network)

Therefore, the "earthquake cloud theory" is widely circulated in China, and even entered the scientific community in China. Lu Dajiong published his paper Observation of Earthquake Clouds in Science Bulletin 198 1 and his book Earthquake Precursors and Clouds in 1982.

The enthusiasm of the people is higher. Japan has established the Earthquake Prediction Club, and China has also established the China Earthquake Prediction and Xia Yun Research Association.

However, the "earthquake cloud theory" has never been accepted by the mainstream scientific community. With the development of scientific cognition, geological or meteorological professionals either euphemistically or directly refute it.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has made it clear that the appearance of some form of cloud before the earthquake is not necessarily related to the earthquake. China Meteorological Bureau once said that "there is no sufficient fact to prove that there is an inherent correlation between earthquakes and weather, and there is no evidence to predict earthquakes through satellite cloud images". The "earthquake cloud theory" gradually disappeared from serious journals and publications.

However, the "earthquake cloud" still has a vast and profound soil among the people. Up to now, many people still believe that watching clouds can predict earthquakes, and some folk "earthquake cloud experts" are still unswervingly publishing their own news of watching clouds predict earthquakes, and have a certain number of believers.

What is an "earthquake cloud"?

The Study on Earthquake Clouds published in 1980s holds that there are three types of earthquake clouds: banded, radial and interference fringes, with photos attached.

Today, when we look back, we can still recognize these "earthquake clouds" despite the age and blurred photos. In fact, there are also corresponding species and genera in the scientific classification of clouds, and they are very common.

For example, "banded seismic clouds" are actually lenticular stratocumulus or lenticular cumulus.

"banded seismic clouds" photographed that year (Preliminary discussion on seismic clouds, Journal of Nature, 1986)

Another example is the "radial seismic cloud", which is actually a radial cumulus cloud.

The "radial seismic cloud" photographed in that year (a preliminary study of seismic clouds, journal of nature, 1986)

Another example is the "interference fringe seismic cloud", which is actually a wavy high-level cloud.

The "Interference Fringe Seismic Cloud" photographed in that year (Preliminary Study on Seismic Cloud, Journal of Nature, 1986)

If the "earthquake cloud research" in the 1980s tried to limit and distinguish the "earthquake cloud" by some scientific methods, now, when the "earthquake cloud" has completely withdrawn from the scientific community, the current folk "earthquake cloud experts" are even more unconstrained and careless.

They call all "weird" clouds earthquake clouds, and "weird" is a subjective word. What is weird and what is not weird? There is no objective standard at all.

For example, on the afternoon of February 20 16, 17, this kind of cloud appeared in Wuyuan, Jiangxi Province, which was said to be an earthquake cloud and caused panic. In fact, it was a wavy stratocumulus cloud.

Corrugated stratocumulus in Wuyuan, Jiangxi (picture from the network)

Weifang, 20 10, 1.7, also said that there are earthquake clouds or wave stratocumulus clouds.

Weifang wavy stratocumulus (picture from the network)

The "earthquake cloud" that exploded in Changchun's circle of friends on July 28 this year is actually a semi-transparent cloud of altocumulus.

Changchun Altocumulus Clouds are translucent (Image from Internet)

Now open the search software and search for "photos of earthquake clouds", and you will see all kinds of altocumulus clouds, stratocumulus clouds, cirrus clouds and cirrocumulus ... and they are actually the most common clouds in the sky (if you often look up at clouds).

There is even a trajectory cloud (commonly known as "aircraft pull line") formed by the water vapor ejected by the aircraft, which is also called "earthquake cloud". Is the plane flying over a sign of an earthquake?

Trajectory cloud (picture from the network)

There are many kinds of "earthquake clouds" on the Internet, mainly altocumulus clouds or stratocumulus clouds, because these two kinds of clouds are easy to form "weird" shapes such as waves, flocks, transparency, radiations and pods. In addition, sometimes in the evening or morning, the color of sunset or sunrise will be dyed, and it is even more suspected to be a "vision in the sky."

High hit rate of "earthquake cloud"

Of course, it is not a hollow reputation that "earthquake cloud experts" can last forever. People also have a confusing set of "evidence", which is "high hit rate".

For example, they say:

Three days before the 5 12 Wenchuan earthquake in China, a "rope-shaped earthquake cloud" appeared in Linyi, Shandong.

A week before the Ya 'an earthquake in China and Sichuan, an "earthquake cloud" appeared over Hangzhou.

On the day before the June 2008 1 bashi channel earthquake, an "earthquake cloud" appeared in Hefei.

……

5 12 Wenchuan earthquake (picture from network)

Speaking of three or five examples, most people are fooled, thinking that they have hit it so many times that they can't believe it all, even if they don't believe it all.

So, why can you call many times?

Actually, it's nothing unusual to say it's broken.

I have been absorbed in reading several well-known "earthquake cloud experts" on the Internet. Their way is to first post a "weird" cloud and declare it an earthquake cloud. After that, within a few days to a month, an earthquake occurred anywhere in the world, which was considered a "hit"!

Earthquake clouds in the eyes of "experts" (picture from the network)

This accuracy is too rough, it is simply a overlord clause, and it is difficult to miss it.

According to this accuracy, the weather forecast can be changed to "Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or even within a month, there will always be rain in one place in the world", and this accuracy can also soar to 100% minute by minute, which is difficult to drop. There are also many fans of "earthquake cloud experts", boasting that they are "more accurate than the weather forecast"-it really makes the weatherman cry.

Some people say, can an earthquake compare with rain? Rain is a common occurrence, and earthquakes are small probability events!

You see, many people always think that earthquakes are rare, and it is a divine operator to "hit" several times. Actually, this is a misunderstanding. In fact, earthquakes happen every day.

According to statistics, there are more than 5 million earthquakes every year in the world, and there are tens of thousands of earthquakes every day. Don't count those small earthquakes first, only count destructive earthquakes with magnitude ≥5. There are 1 000 times a year all over the world, almost two or three times a day.

In other words, anyone who casually points his finger at the sky and makes a casual calculation and says that "there will be an earthquake of magnitude 5 or above in the world today" is bound to win and lose. What's more, the "earthquake cloud expert" relaxed the time to less than one month.

Really, the "earthquake cloud expert" claims to be "hit many times", which is all modest. In fact, they will "play every exam" and play every exam.

"Theoretical Basis" of Earthquake Clouds

"Earthquake cloud experts" also put forward some "theoretical basis", trying to prove the "scientific nature" of earthquake clouds from the perspectives of physics, atmospheric science and geology.

The idea is similar, that is to say, in the "incubation period" before the earthquake, the earth accumulated a lot of energy, which will leak out of the ground from the fault cracks and escape into the air in the form of geothermal energy, fluctuation, oscillation, infrasound, electromagnetic radiation, high-energy water vapor and charged particles, thus affecting the shape of clouds and leading to strange earthquakes.

These professional words are scary at first glance, but they can't stand scientific verification and scrutiny.

The earth has been densely covered with various monitoring instruments from the surface to the sky, regardless of energy, fluctuation, oscillation, water vapor, infrasound, electromagnetic radiation ... can be accurately monitored.

If before the earthquake, they really emerged from the ground, then reached the sky, and then reflected in the form of clouds, how could all these instruments be indifferent and unable to monitor any abnormal values? But wait until they get on the cloud before being recognized by the human eye?

These questions are repeatedly raised, but "earthquake cloud experts" always turn a blind eye.

Psychological focusing effect

The "earthquake cloud theory" can gain the trust of the people, and it also stems from the psychological needs of the public.

When people encounter major disasters such as earthquakes, they often recall various details before the incident and tend to think that these details are "rare and abnormal". In fact, these "rare anomalies" often occur, but people usually don't deliberately observe and remember them. This is the so-called "psychological focusing effect". The same is true of those seemingly weird "earthquake clouds".

Seemingly weird "earthquake cloud" (picture from the Internet)

Corrugated stratocumulus, translucent altocumulus, flocculent altocumulus ... These are actually very common and ordinary clouds, which appear in the sky all over the world every day. But when it happens just before the earthquake, it will be given a special meaning of "omen".

In the face of such terrible and sudden natural disasters as earthquakes, human beings are too small to do anything. So throughout the ages, people hope to have a simple and direct method (such as looking at clouds) to predict the occurrence of earthquakes in advance and give people a chance to escape bad luck.

It is precisely because of satisfying this psychological demand of human beings that the "Shock Cloud Theory" will always have followers.