Is the news of global cooling true? Isn't it the greenhouse effect? Why does it get cold?

It is true that global cooling became the academic mainstream in the early 1970s, and the warm climate period is coming to an end. Habiburlo Abdul Samatov, director of the Space Research Laboratory of Pulkov Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences, published a paper in 2007, saying that the earth passed the peak of global warming from 1998 to 2005, and global warming was mainly caused by the unusually high luminosity of the sun, and the luminous intensity of the sun gradually decreased, reaching the lowest point in about 20041year. This is the reason for the remarkable cooling of the earth, but the ocean will slow down the process of the remarkable cooling of the earth, and the summit of global cooling will appear from 2055 to 2060.

? Global warming is a scam! "When world leaders gathered in Copenhagen to discuss new emission reduction targets, someone put forward such a slogan outside the meeting. Shortly after the conclusion of the climate summit that finally reached a non-legally binding treaty, as if to confirm this slogan, a rare cold current swept almost the whole northern hemisphere.

? From mid-June, 5438 to February, 2009, a snowstorm swept through Europe, and the snow depth in some areas exceeded 50 cm, causing traffic paralysis; On June 65438+February 65438+September 20, 2009, there was a general snowstorm in the eastern United States, and the snow depth in Washington reached 6 1 cm, the highest since February 1932. On 20 10 year 10.6, the lowest temperature in Beijing reached-16.7℃, which broke the record of the lowest temperature in early October since 197 1.

In fact, global cooling is not a new theory. The global cold weather of 1947-1976 once made many meteorologists exclaim that "the Little Ice Age is coming".

As early as 1940s, Milankovic, a Yugoslav scientist, suggested that the three changes of the Earth's orbit, namely eccentricity, magnetic declination and precession, have periods of 654.38 million+years, 40,000 years and 20,000 years respectively, which led to the change of the Earth's climate in the last period of Cenozoic (that is, Quaternary) as ice age and interglacial period. In 1970s, a series of geological data, including deep-sea rock cores, coral reefs, pollen, tree rings and ice cores, proved the existence of this cycle.

Academician Qin Dahe believes that climate warming will lead to a significant increase in extreme weather events. In recent years, the obvious increase of extreme cold weather events at home and abroad is one example; Korol, who supported the coming of the Little Ice Age, said that during the ice age and interglacial period, the temperature of the earth was very stable, but in the transitional zone, the climate on the earth would become extreme, and the extremely hot weather and extremely cold weather might change without hindrance. "The earth is entering a natural turning point. You never know which extreme it will suddenly turn to. I just want to say that the extreme ice age is as difficult as global warming. " In the report, IPCC clearly pointed out that the understanding of the assessment of extreme weather frequency and intensity, including cold wave, is still very low.

A sentence by Wang, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, may enable us to re-examine the two theories of climate change: "Climate change occurs on the time scale of inter-annual to over one million years. Climate changes at different scales overlap like Russian dolls; They not only overlap, but are also intertwined through interaction, so that it is impossible to correctly understand the shorter process without considering the long process. " He believes that it is not yet possible to judge what period the earth is in according to Milankovic's cycle theory, and more investigations are needed to support it.

Researcher Chen Wen revealed: "The cold wave in the northern hemisphere has given us a hint to improve the weather forecast model." Because this oscillation signal is transmitted from the stratosphere to the troposphere, but now the weather forecast is mainly concentrated in the troposphere, and little attention is paid to the stratosphere. "After improving the model, the stratosphere will be included in the research scope, and the prediction may be more accurate."

Perhaps, in the face of the massive and complex factors that cause climate change, as well as the deviation and deficiency of instruments and data, what scientists can do is to keep studying and make the results close to the facts.

Qin Dahe, director of the National Climate Committee, gave a negative answer: "Global warming is an indisputable fact, not a wild guess! Taking climate change in China as an example is enough to prove this point. " He believes that there is a misunderstanding about global warming, that is, global warming should be manifested in rising temperatures. In fact, global warming may lead to both an increase in temperature and a decrease in temperature, with large fluctuations.

"The negative anomaly of the Arctic Oscillation is the main reason for the low temperature", which is a weather phenomenon, not a climate phenomenon. 20 10, 1 On June 4th, 2008, the National Climate Center held a seminar on extreme cold events in the northern hemisphere and winter climate prediction technology in China, and more than a dozen climate experts reached this conclusion.

Oscillation is the change of air pressure in two areas. "We can regard the Arctic and the surrounding middle and high latitudes as a teacup full of water," said researcher Chen Wen, director of the Research Center of Monsoon System of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. "When you stir counterclockwise with a spoon, the water in the teacup will form a vortex, which is a polar vortex with low pressure, and the water rotating around it is a westerly belt around the middle and high latitudes of the Arctic, while the spoon stirs atmospheric fluctuations and other disturbances." Fast agitation, low polar vortex pressure, high mid-high latitude pressure and strong westerly wind. This is the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, when cold air is not easy to come out from the polar regions. On the contrary, if the agitation is slow, the air pressure in the polar regions will not be so low, the air pressure in the middle and high latitudes will decrease, and the westerly wind will be weak, which is the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. At this time, the cold air in the Arctic will easily reach the middle and high latitudes, causing a cold wave.

"These disturbances include atmospheric fluctuations with a wavelength of several Qian Qian meters, the wavelength scale of which is almost equivalent to that of radius of the earth. We call it planetary waves. " Chen Wen said that a high pressure and a low pressure can form planetary waves, and there are two planetary waves, which can just circle the northern hemisphere: a wave from the Siberian high to the Aleutian low; Another wave is from Canada high pressure to Iceland low pressure. Planetary waves propagate in two directions, one is from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, and gradually tends to the tropics; In the process of upward propagation, the other branch slowly inclines to the polar region and spreads to the stratosphere. More waves are transmitted to the stratosphere, but less to the tropics. According to the normal situation, planetary waves in the troposphere mainly propagate from the middle and high latitudes to the tropics. If there are fewer waves traveling to the tropics, it is an abnormal situation. Subtract from the normal situation, it seems that the negative wave propagates from the tropics to the middle and high latitudes and the polar regions. This negative wave will weaken the polar vortex and increase the polar pressure, which is closely related to the Arctic Oscillation.

Chen Wen also told reporters that when they were studying, they defined the multi-year average of airflow around the earth as basic airflow. "In addition to planetary waves, there are waves with a wavelength scale of several kilometers and waves with a time scale of several days." For weather forecast, the interaction between waves of different scales and between waves and basic airflow is a "complex nonlinear system", so it is difficult to make long-term forecast. However, it is generally believed that the Arctic Oscillation is a natural fluctuation of the atmosphere, which cannot prove whether the global temperature is getting warmer or colder. Most climatologists also believe that the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events cannot directly prove global warming.