Who was the first person in history of qing dynasty who predicted the demise of the Qing Dynasty from the generation of cattle?

According to the existing literature research, Zhao Liewen, Zeng Guofan's most valued aide, was the first person to accurately predict the demise of the Qing Dynasty. Also in 6 years, that is, 1867, he predicted that the decadent Qing Dynasty would perish within 50 years. The Qing Dynasty finally collapsed at 19 1 1. Zhao Liewen made this prediction in 1867 44 years ago, but it didn't take 50 years. Zhao Liewen, 1832, was born in Changshu, Jiangsu. When I was young, I was famous and thoughtful. He is knowledgeable and has made great achievements in Buddhism, Yi-ology, medicine, military affairs and economy.

Xianfeng five years, good friend Zhou Tenghu recommended Zhao Liewen shogunate to Zeng Guofan. At that time, Zeng Guofan was trapped in the front line of Nanchang and was completely defeated by the Taiping Army. Most of his entourage left. At first, Zeng Guofan gave up hope for the new Zhao Liewen. As an intern, there must be something to do. Zeng Guofan has no idea to arrange any specific work for him. Only ordered him to go and see the Xiang army amphibious camp stationed in Zhangshu Town first, and get familiar with the working environment. Unexpectedly, Miss Zhao found the problem as soon as she left. After returning to China, he reported to Zeng Guofan: "The military camp system of Zhangshu Camp is very loose, and the military spirit is out of date. I am afraid it is not enough. " What Zeng Guofan was most ashamed of learning was "doing nothing, no one can compare, adapting to the environment, no one can match." He thinks that Zhao Liewen belongs to this generation, so he hates Zhao Liewen's so-called perception. He is unhappy in his heart. This kitten knows what a military incident is. Because Zhao Liewen's mother was ill at this moment, he might also see that Zeng Guofan had a bad impression on himself, so he might as well leave here. So he bid farewell to Zeng Guofan on the grounds that his mother was ill, and Zeng Guofan did not stay. Iron battalions are mobile soldiers, and the flow is normal.

Just as he was about to leave, the news that Zhou Fengshan's Xiang army was defeated in Zhangshu reached his ears. Seeing Zhao Liewen's extraordinary knowledge, Zeng Guofan immediately had a new view of Zhao Liewen. Later, Zhao Liewen was paid more and more attention by Zeng Guofan, and they often talked about military affairs together. Finally, he and Zeng Guofan talked about everything, sometimes several times a day. Zeng Guofan was an important minister and pillar of the late Qing court. It is because of his unremitting efforts and hard work that the so-called "tongzhi" appeared in the late Qing Dynasty. Liu Jixing thought that few people questioned how long the red flag of Qing Dynasty could last. Zeng Guofan had an in-depth study on the rise and fall of dynasties. He realized that endless crises lurked between the ruling party and the opposition party, which might kill him. However, he believes that through some efforts, it should still be possible to get dangerous houses out of danger.

Zhao Liewen doesn't think so. His views are deeper and sharper than Zeng Guofan's. He is the author of many works, such as Diary of Teacher Zhao Avoiding Chaos, Diary of Calm Down, Diary of Falling Flowers in the Spring Rain Nest, Diary of Geng Shen Avoiding Chaos, etc. In the diary of a quiet life for many years, Zhao Liewen described in detail a very important conversation with Zeng Guofan. In this conversation, Zhao Liewen unexpectedly predicted that the Qing Dynasty would perish within 50 years!

On the evening of June 20th of the same year, that is, on July 20th of the Gregorian calendar 1867, Zeng Guofan, then the governor of Liangjiang River, said to Zhao with great anxiety: "Beijingers said,' The weather at Doumen is very bad, and there are cases of fighting with open flames from time to time. There are many beggars in this city. "When people are poor and rich, they are afraid of change. What can I do? " Zhao Liewen replied: "The security of the world has been unified for a long time, and it will be tamed until it is divided. However, the main prestige is very heavy and the atmosphere is not open. If it wasn't a rotten heart, it wouldn't fall apart. As far as intensity is concerned, the future disaster must first be a servant, then the country has no owner and the people are independent. It may not take 50 years. " In other words, now that the world has been unified for a long time, it will inevitably split gradually. But because the emperor has always been very authoritative, and the top management has not been corrupted first, it will not fall apart now. However, according to his estimation, the catastrophe in the future is that the court will collapse first, and then there will be a fragmented situation; He further judged that this kind of disaster would not happen until about 50 years later.

Zeng Guofan was worried and thought for a long time before saying, "But when should I move south?" Zeng Guofan believes that the Qing Dynasty will not be completely overthrown, and it may be the same as those dynasties in which the regime moved south, the north and the south split, and half of the country remained unchanged. Zhao Liewen clearly replied: "I am afraid that the Jin and Song Dynasties may not be efficient." In his view, the Qing government could not move southward like the Eastern Jin Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty, and it would completely perish. Zeng Guofan retorted: "What virtue does this dynasty have?"

Zhao Liewen then replied, "The virtue of a monarch is just. With the prosperity of the country, the news of food will not be too thick. It is too easy to start a business when the country is just starting, and it is too smart to have the best things. Heaven is hard to understand, good and evil are not covered, and virtue is insufficient. " In the dialogue, Zhao Liewen denied the moral legitimacy of "winning the world" in Qing Dynasty. The Qing army died in Li Chuang because of the Ming Dynasty, and Wu Sangui entered the customs because of the anger of beautiful women, so it was too easy to start a business. After entering the customs, they killed people to scare away the Han people who were far superior to themselves, such as "Yangzhou Ten Days" and "Jiading Three Slaughters", so too many people were killed, which determined that the Qing Dynasty lacked legitimacy. However, after the Qing Dynasty, Kang, Gan and Jia's "Junde" was pure, but good and evil were not concealed and brought out the best in each other. Moreover, "Heaven" brought them the flourishing age of literature, art and martial arts as a very rich reward, so the "orthodoxy" of these later monarchs could not make up for the lack of orthodoxy when the Qing Dynasty was established, nor could they make up for the lack of legitimacy of their rule. Zhao Liewen denied the legitimacy of his rule from the contingency and cruelty of the Qing Dynasty, which was quite politicized. For Zhao Liewen's incisive remarks, Zeng Guofan was lost in thought and seemed to be thinking.

The river of no return, how many heroes grow old. Zeng Guofan and Zhao Liewen died in 1872 and 1894 respectively. History has witnessed Zhao Liewen's amazing and accurate prediction. 191year, the ill-fated Qing dynasty finally collapsed in less than 50 years from Zhao Liewen's prediction of 1867. In addition, what followed was the long-term confusion predicted by Zhao Liewen. Everything in the world, rivers and mountains remain the same. Zhao Yuan, where Zhao Liewen once lived, still exists. Located in the southwest corner of the ancient city of Changshu, Jiangsu Province, it is the former site of Qian's Biography of Xiao Wang in Ming Dynasty. From Jiaqing to Daoguang, Wu Jian built a foreign land garden, also known as the Water Dance Garden. During the reign of Tongzhi and Guangxu, it was purchased after retirement and named "Zhaoyuan" and Heyuan, which is one of the famous classical gardens in the south of the Yangtze River.