The future of meteorological economy

People often hear that agriculture "depends on the weather". Drought and rainstorm are not conducive to crop growth, and market prices will fluctuate accordingly. Friedheim Schwartz pointed out in his book Climate Economics that weather plays a decisive role in four-fifths of global economic activities. Such as aviation, navigation, commercial retail, express logistics, construction and so on, are quite sensitive to the weather.

Schwartz gives an example in the book. A heavy rain in Namo, Philippines, represents a small disaster. Besides outdoor work, streams on the hillside will also wash away everything along the way. Moreover, the hotel will be surrounded by water, causing all kinds of inconvenience to passengers. If the heavy rain falls in Cologne, Germany, the situation will be completely different. Pedestrians on the street will flock to shops, cafes and department stores to spend money in these places while hiding from the rain. According to Schwartz's theory, if enterprises grasp the "secret" in advance before the weather changes, and then seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, money may be bright.

The benefits of mastering "secrets" by relying on meteorological services are called meteorological service benefits, which include reducing disaster losses and increasing economic benefits. In foreign countries, a "Delphi meteorological law" is popular in the field of meteorological economics, that is, the ratio of meteorological input to output is 1:98. In other words, for every 1 yuan invested in meteorology, enterprises can get economic returns from 98 yuan. According to the conclusion of the national meteorological service benefit evaluation project carried out by China Meteorological Bureau, the meteorological service provided by the meteorological department in China generates at least 332.8 billion yuan of economic and social benefits every year. The input-output benefit can reach 1: 69. However, this ratio is not balanced in various places, such as Beijing 1: 22 1, Guangdong 1: 99.