It is difficult to predict the short-term trend of stock prices, so is it still meaningful to listen to stock critics? How to listen to stock reviews correctly?

Hello, everyone, I am a home financial manager, a banker who focuses on sharing knowledge and skills in investment and financial management. First of all, I want to tell you that it is really difficult to predict the trend of stock prices in the short term. So some stock critics predict that a stock will go up or down tomorrow, which is incredible. So, is it meaningless for stock critics to comment on the stock market? Of course not. As a person who specializes in securities research and comments on research results, stock reviewers are still of reference value.

As the saying goes, "existence is reasonable", as an industry, the state not only allows it to exist, but also sets some thresholds for it, which shows the necessity of the existence of stock reviewers. The key is to listen to stock reviews correctly and not "let it go". The specific analysis is as follows:

First, it is difficult to predict the short-term trend of the stock market or stocks. There are too many factors (including politics, economy, non-economy, etc.) affecting the rise and fall of the stock market or stocks, so its short-term trend is unpredictable. Warren Buffett is even more outspoken: the intrinsic value of stocks is predictable, but the stock market itself is irrational and unpredictable, and no one can predict the stock market trend; We can only use it, but we can't predict it.

At present, the ability of stock critics is uneven, so the ability to predict the stock market is even more doubtful. Even on Wall Street, analysts are only required to make a correct prediction of 565,438+0%. But even such a requirement is difficult for analysts to achieve. For example, Andy Kessler, a famous "stock wizard" on Wall Street, "performed very badly" when he was an analyst on Wall Street, and his predictions were almost all wrong.

How did the so-called "prediction" of success come from? The truth will make people stunned. Let's look at a classic example. When 65,438+00,000 people guess the pros and cons of a coin, about 50% people will guess correctly every time. So after 10 times in a row, maybe only one or two people got it right. Both of them are successful "prophets", but they all rely on "luck".

So don't listen to the comments of stock critics on the short-term trend of a stock, especially when they say that a stock will rise sharply in the last day or two. In other words, listening to stock reviews should not listen to micro (that is, the extremely short-term trend forecast of individual stocks), but should listen to the analysis of medium-sized industry sectors and macroeconomic development.

Second, there are three key factors in how to listen to stock reviews correctly and make money in the stock market: first, obtain relevant information; The second is to correctly interpret the information; The third is to control bad emotions. So listening to stock reviews requires us to get these three things from stock reviewers.

There is a specialization in the industry, and stock reviewers collect and study stock market information all day, so naturally they will have more advantages than retail investors in information collection and processing. Most of us retail investors are amateurs, and we don't have the time, energy and channels to get a lot of information. It is a time-saving and labor-saving method to obtain relevant information by listening to stock reviews.

Therefore, when we listen to stock reviews, we mainly listen to the information related to the stock market or the industry you hold, or the information of the industry sector you want to invest in, and the interpretation of this information by stock reviewers.

Of course, the information obtained by different stock reviewers may be roughly the same, but the interpretation of the information is quite different, and each has its own analysis and judgment. It is necessary to treat it dialectically and distinguish the reference value of the information.

Let's talk about how to "control bad emotions" by listening to stock reviews. As retail investors, everyone knows little about the information of listed companies. Therefore, when the stock price of a stock suddenly rises or falls sharply, our mood will be affected by the fluctuation of the stock price, and we may make some irrational behaviors such as "cutting meat and selling", "taking profits" or "buying at the bottom". At this time, you can get the information and reasons of stock price fluctuation by listening to stock reviews, so as to overcome and control bad emotions and help yourself become a rational investment winner.