Is it cold in Fujian this Spring Festival?

According to reports, since the autumn of this year, cold air has not been very active and its power is not strong. The weather in our city continued to be sunny and warm, and even there was a phenomenon of "Xiaoyangchun" at one time. By the end of 1 1, the cold air activity suddenly strengthened. Under its repeated attacks, the temperature in our city continued to fall, and the average temperature dropped below 10℃ for five consecutive days, thus officially entering the winter on the 28th of that month. Since the meteorological records, the average winter date in Lishui is165438+1October 24th, which is basically the same as this year. It can be said that from the time point of view, this winter is quite normal. However, after winter, the cold air resumed its previous "fatigue", and the warm and humid airflow took the opportunity to gain the upper hand. Except for a few days, the average temperature in our city has climbed above 10℃ in most days recently.

So, does this mean that this year is another warm winter? Experts from the Municipal Meteorological Observatory said that it is still too early to draw conclusions. It is understood that according to the current prevailing standards, only one area in winter (65438+February to February of the following year) has an average temperature above 0.5℃ higher than the average of the same period of the year, which is called warm winter. Therefore, it is generally necessary to wait until the end of February next year to determine whether it is warm this year.

However, according to the latest meteorological data, we can still see some clues about the temperature trend this winter. After consultation with meteorologists, it is considered that cold air activities have become more frequent and intense since Lishui entered 65438+February last year. However, under the background of global warming, the influence of cold air in our city has indeed decreased in recent years, and the temperature in winter has an upward trend. However, there is a special climate phenomenon that cannot be ignored this year, that is La Nina phenomenon. Since February this year, the seawater in the equator, the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean has been extremely cold for a long time, and a weak to moderate La Nina phenomenon has formed around August. The period from February 65438+ this year to next year1October 65438+ will be the heyday of this La Nina phenomenon. Judging from the situation in previous years, La Nina phenomenon will inhibit the rise of sea level temperature, cause abnormal meridional circulation in East Asia, and create conditions for Siberian cold air to go south, thus bringing strong winds and cooling to most parts of China.

Based on this, the Municipal Meteorological Observatory predicts that the average temperature in Lishui this year is basically the same as that in the same period of last year under the combined effect of global warming and La Nina phenomenon, but it may not reach the standard of warm winter. At the same time, the possibility of staged low temperature weather affected by strong cold air is not ruled out.