Why is the weather forecast so inaccurate?

Weather forecasting technology is still underdeveloped. Weather forecast is to predict the possible changes in the future according to the changing trend of clouds and various data of weather stations. This form may be disturbed by some turbulence.

I have read many articles and summaries about how wonderful the prediction is and how successful the analysis is, but I seldom see the analysis and comments on the cases of failure in prediction. It seems that some people don't want to touch scars, and they haven't sincerely discussed the professional atmosphere of failure. Once there is an important error in the forecast, the atmosphere will become very dignified and afraid to mention it, for fear of hurting someone's feelings.

At the end of the weather forecast of Beijing TV Station, there is a screen called "Satisfaction rate of weather forecast on a certain day of a month", and the audience scores the daily weather forecast results. I will read this information carefully every time, which is an important channel to understand the audience's attitude towards the quality of forecast. The satisfaction rate is often very high, 90% or even 100%. However, there are also times when the satisfaction rate is very low. For example, it is predicted that there will be "light rain" in Beijing on June 14 and June 15, 2004, but God just won't cooperate. On June 14, there was strong wind and sand blowing. On June 15, it didn't rain, although the sky was cloudy and cloudy. I passed a swimming pool that day. Of course, everyone in the industry knows that the prediction in that year was indeed very difficult. /kloc-June 0/6, it seems that God was finally moved by persistent prediction. It rained all day, but the predicted maximum temperature was 24 degrees, while the actual temperature in the afternoon was only 17 degrees. People wearing thin clothes shivered with cold and complained bitterly, but the forecast satisfaction rate on June 15 was 865438+.