What are the omens of convective weather?

1, small-scale and fast-developing weather system is a difficult point in meteorology. Under the current observation conditions, not only China, but also all countries in the world have not fully grasped its information, so there are still some limitations in the understanding and understanding of this weather. The unpredictability of strong convective weather is the consensus of experts and scholars engaged in meteorological forecasting and scientific research at home and abroad.

2. At present, the predictions of possibilities in all countries in the world are only potential predictions, that is, convective weather may occur in a certain area for a relatively long period of time. Because of the long time period, only a wide range of predictions can be given comprehensively, and the pertinence is not particularly strong. Therefore, in order to provide targeted services, countries all over the world adopt the approach of approaching early warning to strengthen services and guidance.

3. Short-term heavy precipitation is an easy-to-predict weather phenomenon in the strong convection family. In summer, a lot of rainfall is a mixture of stable precipitation and convective precipitation, and convective precipitation often has a large amount of precipitation and great influence in a short time. In recent years, the accuracy of short-term heavy rainfall forecast in China has been steadily improved year by year, and hourly heavy rainfall forecast has improved the fine level and service ability of severe convective weather forecast.

4. Lightning disaster is one of the main disasters caused by strong convective weather. Because the rapid formation of lightning brings great difficulties to its early warning and forecasting, researchers and professionals at home and abroad have done a lot of research on short-term lightning forecasting, using mesoscale observation system, radar, satellite and lightning positioning system to obtain observation data and numerical forecasting model products, and developed the technology and business operation of approaching lightning forecasting. For example, the United States can now give the cumulative point probability product after 3 hours. The research and development of lightning early warning and forecasting technology and methods in China has just started in recent years, mainly focusing on lightning approaching forecasting products and lightning early warning and forecasting systems. However, due to the lack of understanding of the physical process of lightning itself, there is no very mature business system so far.

5. Tornado is a small-scale weather system or a small probability event with strong randomness in time and space. At present, most meteorological detection equipment and detection systems cannot effectively monitor and track the occurrence and development of tornadoes. Therefore, even in the United States, although tornado forecasting and monitoring have been carried out for many years, the distance between meteorological monitoring stations is decreasing year by year, and the radar network is becoming more and more perfect, it is still difficult to accurately forecast and the early warning time is still limited.

6. It is also difficult to forecast hail. As long as the atmospheric conditions are suitable, there will be hail everywhere. At the same time, the characteristics of hail are easily covered by weather characteristics such as heavy precipitation, thunderstorms and strong winds, which increases the difficulty of forecasting. At present, numerical weather forecast can give some meteorological factors related to hail formation, but it can't directly give the final forecast result of hail size. The forecast of hail is mainly based on the forecaster's grasp of various weather elements and comprehensive analysis of historical data. At present, the focus of hail forecast is to predict the size of hail, which involves more factors and more complicated mechanisms. At present, it can only be a rough estimate and cannot be applied to business. Meteorologists try to identify the size of hail particles by radar echo, judge the probability of hail of various sizes and the probability of strong hail by hail detection algorithm, and estimate the maximum hail diameter. This method can be used to forecast the weather within 1 hour, but it is not mature at present, and the effect needs to be tested. In hail forecast, at present, we can only rely more on Doppler radar for continuous monitoring, try our best to find the hail characteristics near severe convective weather and release them to the public in time through early warning.

7. Strong convective weather refers to severe convective weather with sudden, violent and destructive weather changes, often accompanied by thunderstorms, hail, squall lines, tornadoes and short-term heavy precipitation. Strong convective weather is easy to cause disasters, which is destructive and has great influence. In addition, it has strong locality, small spatial scope and short duration or life, but it can release powerful forces in a short time. This feature makes every weather phenomenon in the strong convective weather family extremely destructive and disastrous.