The overall situation is set! Wheat harvest is nearly 80%, and this year wheat "1, with a rapid growth of 3".

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With the continuous advancement of wheat harvest, the trend of wheat market has become more and more clear this year. Specifically, this year's wheat has the characteristics of "1, 3 increase":

1, the wheat harvest is fast

According to the wheat harvest progress released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on June 12, the national wheat harvest area was 239 million mu, and the harvest progress was 78.5%, close to 80%, which was about 1.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

Among them, the wheat harvest in Henan has basically ended, and Jiangsu has entered the final stage. Shaanxi is close to 85%, Shandong is more than half, Shanxi is over 35%, and Hebei is close to 20%.

The progress of summer harvest is mainly related to three factors:

One is the maturity of wheat.

Although the sowing of wheat in some main producing areas was slow last year, the growth of wheat caught up with the vigorous promotion in the later period, and the maturity of wheat was not delayed.

The second is the fear of extreme weather.

You know, last year was during the wheat harvest, and there was heavy rainfall, which caused the quality differentiation of wheat and affected the whole wheat market.

La Nina's influence still exists this year, so out of fear of extreme weather, farmers tried their best to grab wheat, thus speeding up the harvest.

The third is the impact of the epidemic.

A few years ago, more farmers went to work in cities, and when the wheat was harvested, they began to go home one after another to harvest wheat. However, this year, due to the epidemic, prevention and control in many places, more farmers returned home ahead of schedule, and the labor force was sufficient, so the wheat harvest speed was accelerated.

2. The quality of wheat is doubled.

Judging from the wheat harvested this year, the yield per unit area of wheat this year is obviously better than last year.

Although there was some resistance in winter sowing last year, with the positive effect of later policies, stable and fixed production laid a good foundation for this year's wheat harvest.

In addition, the soil moisture in the northern winter wheat area was good last year, which increased the cold and frost resistance of wheat and was also conducive to growth.

Therefore, this year's wheat harvest is a foregone conclusion.

On the other hand, the overall quality of wheat this year is also higher than last year. For example, the quality of wheat in Anhui has reached the best level since 10, while most of the wheat in Jiangsu has also reached the second-class level.

Therefore, the yield and quality of wheat have improved this year.

3. Price rise

Besides yield and quality, everyone is most concerned about the price of wheat this year.

From the current price of new wheat scales, it can be seen that wheat is appropriately "opened higher" this year.

The purchase price of grain depot is generally around 1.5- 1.55 yuan/kg, while the purchase price of flour enterprises is around 1.55- 1.6 yuan/kg, which has been rising continuously in recent days.

On the one hand, the rise in wheat prices is influenced by the big market, and various costs have risen, which has also pushed up food prices; On the other hand, in the first half of this year, the old wheat broke through historical highs many times, which fully ignited the market sentiment, making farmers generally reluctant to sell. Although the wheat harvest progress is relatively fast, there are not many real grains in circulation.

In the later period, the price of wheat is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

On the one hand, there are more grain harvesters this year, and it is estimated that the purchase volume of summer grain will reach 654.38+030 billion Jin. With the support of policies, there is limited room for wheat to fall.

On the other hand, international wheat prices continue to rise. On June 13, the global wheat futures price rose by over 2% again, reaching a maximum of 10.92 USD/bushel.

4. Cost growth

But on the other hand, we also noticed that the cost of wheat has also increased greatly this year.

First, the price of chemical fertilizer has soared since last year and has been hovering at a high level this year.

Take urea as an example. Last year, the price of urea once dropped to 2300-2400 yuan/ton, but at present, the mainstream price of urea is still hovering at 3000 yuan/ton.

The continuous increase in the price of chemical fertilizer has undoubtedly increased the planting cost of wheat.

Second, the cost of machine collection has also increased.

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global crude oil price has soared, and since then it has been hovering at the position of 100 USD/barrel. Recently, with the arrival of summer, demand has increased and oil prices have started to rise again.

The rise in global oil prices has led to a continuous increase in domestic refined oil prices, which has experienced "9 up/kloc-0 down" this year.

In the upcoming new round of price adjustment window, it is expected that domestic refined oil prices will continue to rise to a new high, and diesel prices will continue to rise.

Judging from the increase, as of the end of May, the national diesel price has increased by 36% compared with last year, which also means that the machine collection cost of wheat has increased.

At the same time, labor costs are also rising, pushing up the cost of wheat harvesting.

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