Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Weather inquiry - Is the global climate change trend cooling or warming? Please answer those who are familiar with geography.
Is the global climate change trend cooling or warming? Please answer those who are familiar with geography.
global warming
Climate warming was first noticed in 1970s, and then it was controversial for a long time. Some people think that climate warming, others think that it is related to the periodic phenomena of cosmic objects, such as sunspot activity cycle. At present, global warming is an indisputable fact. Climate warming will eventually have a major negative impact on regional security in the Asia-Pacific region, because rising temperatures and sea levels, fluctuating rainfall and frequent severe droughts will all change agricultural production in the Asia-Pacific region and further reduce the sources of food and water. Climate warming affects the survival and development of human beings, which has become a major problem to be solved urgently in today's human society and a severe challenge that human beings must face.
catalogue
brief introduction
background
cause
situation
History and forecast
result
How to deal with it
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brief introduction
Climate warming refers to the phenomenon that the temperature of the earth's atmosphere and ocean rises in a period of time, mainly referring to the temperature rise caused by human factors. Probably because of excessive greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate warming
Climate warming is caused by people burning fossil minerals to generate energy or cutting them down and burning them. Because these gases have high permeability to visible light from the sun, they have high absorption to long-wave radiation reflected from the earth, which is generally considered to cause global warming. In the past 100 years, the global average temperature experienced two fluctuations: cold → warm → cold → warm, showing an overall upward trend. Since 1980s, the global temperature has obviously increased. The consequences of global warming will redistribute global precipitation, melt glaciers and frozen soil and raise sea level, which will not only endanger the balance of nature, but also threaten human food supply and living environment.
Climate warming is a "natural phenomenon". Because people burn fossil minerals to generate energy or cut down forests to burn, they produce a lot of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, which will be reflected to the earth because of its high transmittance to visible light radiated by the sun.
Climate warming
Long-wave radiation has strong absorption, which is often called "greenhouse effect", leading to global warming. In the past 100 years, the global average temperature experienced two fluctuations: cold → warm → cold → warm, showing an overall upward trend. Since 1980s, the global temperature has obviously increased. The consequences of global warming will redistribute global precipitation, melt glaciers and frozen soil and raise sea level, which will not only endanger the balance of natural ecosystems, but also threaten human food supply and living environment.
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background
There are many factors that affect the change of the earth's surface temperature, but it is generally believed that there are two main categories: natural factors and human activities. As far as natural factors are concerned, solar activity, volcanic activity and low-frequency vibration in the climate system may affect global or regional temperature changes. Due to the uncertainty of the historical sequence data of solar radiation and volcanic activity, and people's understanding of how the climate system responds to the change of solar output radiation is still very preliminary, strictly speaking.
Climate warming
At present, it is impossible to accurately evaluate its impact on global and China temperature changes. Decadal low-frequency vibration of ocean-atmosphere system, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or ENSO Decadal Vibration, may also have an important impact on global and regional temperatures. Human activities mainly affect the change of surface temperature through land use change and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Urbanization and urban heat island effect can also be regarded as local manifestations of land use change. The recent IPCC report pointed out that the global warming in the past 100 years, especially in the past 50 years, is likely to be mainly caused by the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere. This conclusion is mainly based on a large number of observation facts and climate model simulation analysis. Generally, the global atmosphere-ocean circulation coupling model is adopted in simulation research, and natural forcing factors such as solar activity and volcanic activity, as well as greenhouse gases and sulfide aerosols emitted by human beings are considered to simulate the changes of global annual average temperature in the 20th century. These studies show that global warming in the 20th century cannot be simulated when only natural forces are considered. When we only consider the impact of human activities, we can basically simulate the global warming trend in the 20th century. When all forces are input, the simulated and observed temperature changes are the most consistent. According to the IPCC report, the main factors affecting climate change in the 20th century are solar activity, volcanic activity and human activities, and the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities have played a leading role in global warming in recent 50 years.
The Arctic became an island for the first time because of the warming climate.
Most scientists also believe that human activities not only lead to a significant increase in the global average surface temperature, but also lead to an increase in warm nights, warm days and heat waves, and a decrease in Leng Ye, cold days and cold waves. Man-made global warming also leads to the melting of alpine glaciers, the rise of global sea level and the strengthening of global water cycle.
However, many scientists also realize that the factors leading to climate change are very complicated and need further study in the future. Due to the defects of climate observation data, the imperfection of climate model and the complexity of factors and mechanisms affecting climate change, the conclusion on the causes of climate change is still uncertain.
Global warming refers to the increase of global temperature. In recent 100 years, the global average temperature has experienced two fluctuations: cold-warm-cold-warm. Generally speaking, the global warming trend is caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Since 1980s, the global temperature has obviously increased.
198 1 ~ 1990, the global average temperature increased by 0.48℃ compared with 100 years ago. The main reason for global warming is that humans have used a lot of fossil fuels (such as coal and oil) and released a lot of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the past century. Because these greenhouse gases have high permeability to visible light radiated by the sun and high absorption to long-wave radiation reflected by the earth, this is commonly called "greenhouse effect", which leads to global warming.
Climate Warming-the Factor of Population Explosion
The specific reason for the global warming trend is that people burn fossil minerals to generate energy or cut down forests and burn them to produce carbon dioxide that enters the earth's atmosphere. According to the climate model, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that by 2 100, the global temperature will rise by about 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5- 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit). According to this forecast, in the past 65,438+00,000 years, the global temperature will change dramatically, which will have a potentially significant impact on the global environment.
In order to stop the global warming trend, the United Nations specially formulated 1992 "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change", which was signed into effect in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro in the same year. According to this convention, developed countries agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" into the atmosphere to the level of 1990 by the year 2000.
In addition, countries with total carbon dioxide emissions accounting for 60% of the global total carbon dioxide emissions in these years have also agreed to transfer relevant technologies and information to developing countries. These technologies and information transferred from developed countries to developing countries will help developing countries actively respond to the challenges brought by climate change. As of May 2004, 189 countries have formally ratified the above convention.
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cause
1, the factor of population explosion
The rapid increase of population in recent years is one of the main factors leading to climate warming. At the same time, it also seriously threatens the balance between the natural ecological environment. With such a huge population, the annual carbon dioxide emitted by itself will be an amazing number, and the result will directly lead to the continuous increase of carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, thus directly affecting the climate change on the earth's surface. [ 1]
Climate Warming-Air Pollution Factors
2, atmospheric environmental pollution factors
At present, the increasingly serious environmental pollution has become a major global problem, and it is also one of the main factors leading to climate warming. Now, the research on climate change has clearly pointed out that the temperature of the earth's surface has started to rise since the end of last century.
3. Factors of marine ecological environment deterioration
At present, the change of sea level is on the rise. According to the prediction of relevant experts, the sea level may rise by 50 cm by the middle of the next century. If no measures are taken, it will directly lead to the destruction and pollution of fresh water resources and other adverse consequences. In addition, a large number of toxic chemical wastes and solid wastes produced by land activities are continuously discharged into the sea; Major oil spills in seawater and the destruction of coastal ecological environment by human activities are the main factors leading to the destruction of seawater ecological environment.
4. Destructive factors such as land erosion and desertification.
5. Factors of sharp decline of forest resources.
Worldwide, due to natural or man-made factors, the forest area is decreasing sharply.
6, the harm of acid rain
The influence of acid rain on ecological environment has attracted more and more attention all over the world. Acid rain will destroy forests, acidify lakes and endanger living things. At present, most of the acid rain in the world is concentrated in Europe and North America, and most of them occur in developed countries and some developing countries. Acid rain is also occurring and developing rapidly.
Climate Warming-Water Pollution Factor
7. Factors that accelerate the extinction of species
Life on the earth is a precious resource for human beings, and the diversity of life is the basis for human survival and development. But at present, the biological species on the earth are disappearing at an unprecedented rate.
8. Water pollution factors
According to the water quality monitoring project of Global Environmental Monitoring System, about 65,438+00% of the monitored rivers in the world are polluted. Since the beginning of this century, the water consumption of human beings is increasing rapidly, and the scale of water pollution is also expanding, forming a contradiction between supply and demand of fresh water. Therefore, the treatment of water pollution will be very urgent and important.
9, toxic waste pollution factors
More and more toxic chemicals not only pose a serious threat to human survival, but also do harm to the ecological environment on the earth's surface.
10, the change of the earth's periodic orbit
Climate warming
The earth's periodic orbit changes from ellipse to circle, which is closer to the sun. According to a scientist's research, the temperature of the earth has been alternating between high temperature and low temperature, with certain regularity.
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situation
Climate warming is related to the greenhouse effect caused by a large number of greenhouse gases emitted by human beings. However, researchers in Japan and Denmark recently pointed out that the increase of greenhouse gases is not the only cause of climate warming, but the change of solar activity has also played a role in promoting it. [2]
Climate warming
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Professor Koji Ito from the Institute of Environmental Information of Yokohama National University in Japan made a chart. As can be seen from the figure, the curve between the average temperature of the earth and the intensity of the solar magnetic field in the past 200 years is basically the same. Ito koji concluded that solar activities also have an impact on climate warming, and it may not be comprehensive to explain climate warming only by increasing greenhouse gases.
The influence of solar activity on the earth's temperature has long been concerned by experts. Generally speaking, when there are many sunspots, the solar activity is intense.
For example, according to historical records, sunspots rarely appeared in the17th century, when the earth's climate was relatively cold. However, the detection information obtained on the ground also shows that the change range of solar radiation energy caused by the change of solar activity intensity is only 0. 1%, and such a small change does not seem to have much impact on the climate.
Recently, however, there has been a hypothesis in the international space science community that the change of solar activity will change the cloud cover over the earth, "amplify" the influence of the sun on the earth, and then affect climate change. Danish scientists who put forward this hypothesis speculate that cosmic rays emitted to the earth can ionize part of the atmosphere more stably, making it easy for clouds to form, thus absorbing a lot of solar radiation and lowering the temperature of the earth.
However, the high-speed charged particle flow released at the peak of solar activity can interfere with cosmic rays that are directed at the earth, making it difficult for clouds to form, which in turn leads to an increase in the temperature of the earth. At present, Danish researchers are studying various factors related to cloud formation to demonstrate the above hypothesis.
Climate warming and frequent extreme weather.
Some Japanese experts also suggested that although the change of solar radiation energy is only 0. 1%, they found that this energy change can change the absorption of solar ultraviolet rays in the earth's atmosphere by several percent, and the increase of this absorption will increase the temperature of the atmospheric ozone layer. Koji Bangyan, head of the second research department of Japan Meteorological Institute, said that the change of ozone layer temperature will affect the troposphere, thus affecting the cold current and monsoon, but it is not clear how much the above mechanism will affect global warming. In order to continue to study this subject, an international research group composed of Koji Bangyan and others began to work last year.
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History and forecast
The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that during the period from1906 to 2005, the global average surface temperature increased significantly, with a linear upward trend of 0.74℃. Considering the data error, the increase range is between 0.56℃ and 0.92℃. Among them,10 ~ 40s and 70 ~ 2 1 decade were two obvious warming stages, and the warming trend in recent 30 years was particularly strong.
In the past 100 years, the average temperature in Chinese mainland has also increased significantly, with an annual average temperature increase of about 0.8℃, with the most obvious warming in winter and little change in summer. During the period from 195 1 to 2004 in China, the annual average surface temperature warming range was about 1.3℃, which was much higher than the global average warming range in the same period, and was also far stronger than the average warming trend in recent 100 years, especially in the northeast, north China, northwest China and northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
Climate warming-melting glaciers
It is worth noting that rapid urbanization and its enhanced urban heat island effect have obvious effects on climate warming recorded by most ground stations in China. In North China, where the warming is obvious, the annual average temperature increase near the national station 196 1 to 2000 caused by urbanization accounts for more than 39% of the total warming. In the trend of warming in other parts of China, the influence of the strengthening factors of urban heat island effect has been more or less retained. Since the early 1960s, the temperature change trend in the middle and lower troposphere in China is not obvious, only 0.05℃ per 10 year, which is one order of magnitude smaller than the temperature change observed by the national ground station. The annual average temperature in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere shows a significant downward trend. This also shows from another angle that the warming recorded by ground stations in China reflects the influence of urban development and urban heat island effect to a certain extent.
Of course, even excluding the influence of urbanization, the surface temperature in China has obviously warmed in the last half century, which is consistent with the reported global climate change. However, after considering the influence of urbanization, the average land warming rate in China and the world may be weaker than that reported at present. This judgment is very important for climate change research.
At present, people are concerned about climate change, which is a global warming phenomenon on the scale of decades to centuries. To understand the background and causes of climate change, it is necessary to have a long enough observation data series covering the whole world. However, most of the weather stations on land in the world have records of less than 100 years, which is difficult to meet the needs of scientific research. In this case, climatologists use surrogate data to restore the evolution process of surface climate elements in the past for a longer period of time. Commonly used temperature proxy data include tree ring width and density, historical documents, oxygen isotopes in ice cores, chemical compositions of corals and stalagmites, etc.
Climate warming
Research by scientists in China shows that the warming of the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 65,438+000 years may be unprecedented in the past 65,438+0000 years. However, the reconstruction of the winter average temperature in eastern China and the national annual average temperature shows that the climate warming in China in the 20th century did not significantly exceed the "medieval warm period". During the period from1000 to1310, China showed a warm stage corresponding to the "medieval warm period" in the northern hemisphere, especially in eastern China. The "Little Ice Age" from14th century to19th century is also clearly reflected in the national average temperature series. /kloc-From the middle of the 9th century to the 1980s, the surface temperature in China increased significantly, but the modern temperature increase in the 1980s did not exceed the level of "medieval warm period".
Therefore, the existing long-term paleoclimate sequence does not show that the modern warming of the northern hemisphere land and China is very abnormal. Some scientists believe that in the past 1000 years or longer, solar activity, volcanic activity and low-frequency vibration in the climate system may have an important impact on climate change. Obviously, from the perspective of paleoclimatology, it is not certain that the climate change in the 20th century was mainly caused by human activities.
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result
1, climate warming, melting glaciers and rising sea level will cause the loss of coastal beaches, mangroves, coral reefs and other ecological groups, global warming coastal erosion, seawater intrusion into coastal groundwater layers, coastal land salinization and other terrible consequences. , resulting in the imbalance of natural ecological environment in coastal areas, estuaries and bays, and bringing disasters to coastal ecological environment systems.
2. The water area has increased. Water evaporation is also more, the rainy season is prolonged, and floods are more frequent. The chances of being flooded increase, the degree and severity of being affected by heavy rain increase, and the life of reservoir dams is shortened.
The rising water temperature may melt the ice and snow in Antarctic Peninsula and Arctic Ocean. Polar bears and walruses will be extinct.
4. Many small islands will disappear without a trace; Will be infected with infectious diseases such as malaria ...
Due to thermal inertia, the existing greenhouse gases will continue to affect our lives.
6. The increase of temperature will affect people's fertility, and the activity of sperm will decrease with the increase of temperature.
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How to deal with it
Climate warming is not only a scientific and environmental issue, but also an energy, economic and political issue. The climate change and some climate disasters from 200/kloc-0 to 2005 forced human beings to pay more attention to climate warming events and their negative effects, and realized that human beings should act together to seriously deal with the urgency of global warming.
Since the first World Climate Conference held in 1979 called for climate protection, governments around the world have paid more and more attention to global warming and its impact. Climate change has become the focus of global environmental and development issues, international political activities and international disaster reduction emergency management. With 1988, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on climate protection, 1994, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change came into effect, and 1997, the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions came into effect in February 2005, and the international community gradually took practical actions to protect the earth's climate.
In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was specially established, which was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme on 1988 * * *. Its main responsibility is to evaluate the current climate change situation from the perspective of science, impact and economics, as well as various climate change programs, and provide suggestions to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as needed.
Climate warming has been an indisputable fact since the 20th century, but there are still many uncertainties about the cause analysis and future trend prediction of climate change. For example, the observation and mechanism research on the interaction of the five major layers of the climate system-atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere is very insufficient, and we are still far from clear.
The earth is the only home for mankind, and climate change and its impact have no national boundaries. It is the obligation and responsibility of all mankind to pay full attention to climate change, observe it comprehensively, understand it scientifically, actively adapt to it and slow it down. The specific measures taken are as follows:
First, save energy and improve energy efficiency, develop clean energy, plant trees and make rational use of land (such as returning farmland to forests and grasslands); Second, improve crop varieties, cultivate and select stress-resistant varieties, adjust the structure and layout of grain industry, and develop water-saving agriculture; Third, strengthen the management and storage of water resources, save water, develop air water resources and desalinate seawater. Fourth, improve public health infrastructure and establish an early warning system for climate change-induced diseases; The fifth is to strengthen the monitoring of sea level rise and build protective dams.
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