3 1 The consumer price index of provinces in September 2022 was released: 16 The CPI increase of provinces was lower than that of the whole country.

June 18 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) of provinces on September 3, 2022. Zhongxin Jingwei found that in September, the year-on-year increase of CPI in 28 provinces was higher than that of last month. Among them, the highest increase in Sichuan was 3.8%, and the lowest increase in Beijing was 2. 1%.

16 The CPI increase in the province is lower than that in the whole country.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in September 2022, the national CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate reached a new high of nearly two and a half years, while it was lower than market expectations for the third consecutive month.

According to the analysis of Sino-Singapore Jingwei, in September, the CPI of 3 1 provinces increased year-on-year, with 10 and 16 provinces higher or lower than the national level respectively, and in August, there were 13 and 12 provinces respectively. In addition, it is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of Hainan, Guangxi and Shaanxi provinces is lower than that of August, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 28 provinces is higher than that of last month. Last month, the growth rate of 23 provinces dropped.

Specifically, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Jilin, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Gansu and other provinces 10. The growth rate is higher than the national level, of which 7 provinces reached the "3" era, and only Hainan and Sichuan last month; Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Qinghai and Ningxia have the same increase as the whole country; The growth rate of Hunan, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Tibet, Beijing and other provinces 16 is lower than the national level, with Beijing and Henan returning to the "second era".

In addition, in terms of increase or decrease, Guizhou ranked first in terms of growth rate, reaching 1.2 percentage points, and Hainan had the largest decline, with 0.5 percentage points.

According to the analysis of Gao Rui East Team of Everbright Macro, the repeated suppression of epidemic situation on consumer demand, the continuous influence of policy regulation on pig price and the weakening of imported inflation such as crude oil are the triple factors that lead to the lower-than-expected CPI operation in the third quarter.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that the CPI rose year-on-year in September, mainly because the prices of pork and fresh vegetables rose rapidly in that month, which offset the impact of the downward adjustment of refined oil prices and pushed up the overall CPI increase; However, the low core CPI fell in September, indicating that the overall price situation remained stable.

How to go about CPI in the future?

After hitting a new high of nearly two and a half years, institutions have different opinions on the CPI forecast in the later period.

In Wang Qing's view, although pork prices may still have a certain upward trend, the future increase will slow down under the action of measures such as putting pork into the central reserve. It is estimated that the year-on-year increase of pork prices will slow down in June 5438+ 10. At the same time, as the weather factors recede, the year-on-year price increase of fresh vegetables in June from 5438+ 10 will be significantly narrowed. After the CPI of food has risen rapidly for seven consecutive months, it may show a downward trend in 10 month.

Wang Qing predicted that the CPI of 5438+00 will slow down to about 2.7% in June. September is likely to be the highest year-on-year increase of CPI this year, and the price level will continue to be lower than 3.0% in the fourth quarter.

Pacific Securities analysts especially believe that since June 5438+00, the increase of CPI has dropped sharply. In the case that the core CPI continues to be depressed, unless the pork price is similar to the "super pig cycle" in 20 19 years, it is very unlikely that the CPI will hit a new high in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that CPI will increase by 2.8% year-on-year in September, which is the highest point in the year, and 10 CPI will increase by 2.4% year-on-year.

The team of Shen Xinfeng, chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, also analyzed that the food item was the main support item of CPI in September, and the core CPI was the main drag item. Among them, affected by the increase in consumer demand during the holiday season, fresh vegetables, fresh eggs and aquatic products increased by 6. 1, 5.6 and 3.3 percentage points respectively over the previous month. Looking back, combined with the influence of the base number, the CPI peak in 2022 has passed, and it will drop obviously in June 5438+ 10, June 5438+June 5438+ 10, but it will rebound in February 65438+February, but the height is limited.

The macro report of western securities predicts that CPI may hit a new high. The further increase in pork prices since the National Day may continue to put upward pressure on CPI. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI is likely to reach a new high in the next six months. However, the income and consumption of the residential sector are still weak, and the core CPI may remain relatively low.

Ding Yujia, a researcher at Trust Investment Research Institute, also believes that the price of pigs has not decreased, and the prices of vegetables and other foods are still supported by the peak consumption season. It is estimated that the CPI of 5438+00 in June will be stable at the level of September. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. )