Cooling 12℃, multi-site cold wave warning! 18 the whole province will welcome "seasonal cooling", and there is no suspense in the cold winter?

10 to 10, a wave of strong cold air hit, and many places ushered in cooling. According to experts' analysis, the cooling is caused by the cold SST in the Pacific Ocean, and the "La Nina" state will strike again because of the strong trade winds in the lower Pacific Ocean. In the year of La Nina, the winter temperature in China was obviously low. Is there no suspense in this cold winter?

0 1, multi-site cold wave warning

Recently, cold air can be described as wave after wave, constantly going south and cooling down everywhere. For example, on June 5438+0 1 day, this wave of cold air caused the temperature in capital cities such as Beijing, Jinan, Hefei and Changsha to drop, and many places "fell overnight".

At the same time, typhoons have recently landed one after another. Under the double penetration of cold air and typhoon, the temperature in Haikou dropped obviously, and the lowest temperature fell below 20℃, so autumn came. But now there is another cold air coming, and it will be the strongest cold air since the second half of the year, lasting from 14 to 17, and the temperature in the central and eastern regions has dropped significantly.

Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Qinghai have successively issued cold wave warnings. For example, Jilin Province issued a cold wave blue warning at 4 o'clock on 14, and in the future 1 day, the temperature in Baishan, Changchun, Jilin and Changbai Mountain will drop by 6-8℃, and some areas will be around 10℃.

The Shenyang Meteorological Observatory also issued an early warning that the temperature dropped 10- 12℃ in some areas, 12- 14℃ in some areas, and the minimum temperature dropped to-1℃ on 16.

However, the southern region cannot be immune to it. This round of cold air will affect 18 provinces, and there will be a second cooling in Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan and South China, which will be the lowest in the second half of the year. By then, many places in the country will usher in a "seasonal" cooling.

For example, if the cold air warning is issued in Jiangsu Province, the temperature will drop obviously on 15- 17, with a drop of 8- 10℃, and the local temperature will drop to 12℃. On 18, the minimum temperature will drop to 4-5℃, and frost will appear in Huaibei area.

The Central Meteorological Observatory also issued an early warning that cold air will bring cooling, rain, snow and windy weather to the central and eastern regions. The temperature in the south of the Yangtze River, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Huanghuai and most parts of the north will drop by 6- 10℃, and in some areas it will reach 14℃, and the 0℃ line will move southward in a large range.

For example, on June 5438+06, the cold air mass will cover the northeast and northeastern Inner Mongolia, and the highest temperature in Changchun and Harbin will drop to 5℃, the lowest since autumn. The lowest temperature in Xuzhou 17 in Jiangsu will drop below 5℃ and gradually approach 0℃, while the highest temperatures in Beijing, Taiyuan, Xi, Zhengzhou and Jinan will drop below 15℃, the highest temperatures in the south of the Yangtze River will also drop below 20℃, and the lowest temperatures in Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changsha, Hefei and Wuhan will drop below1.

At the same time, affected by this round of cold air, there will be small to medium snow in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai and northeastern Inner Mongolia, and there will be heavy snow in western Gansu and eastern Qinghai.

In addition to strong cold air, the arrival of typhoon Compass will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to South China. There will be 9- 10 gusts in the coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan, with heavy rain. However, it is expected that the intensity will weaken next, and people can breathe a sigh of relief.

02, no suspense in winter?

During the National Day, the south ushered in the highest temperature since June 5438+00. This high temperature was caused by the strong subtropical high to the north, and the cold air could not go south. As a result, the south is in hot weather most of the time. However, from 1 1, cold air followed, and with the influence of typhoon, the temperature dropped sharply.

Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the Climate Center, said that the sea surface temperature in the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean is relatively cold, and it is expected that the temperature will continue to drop from 10 to 12, and it will enter the "La Nina" state. A website in the United States reported that the probability of La Nina is 80% this year, which means that La Nina has a high probability.

Jia Xiaolong said that La Nina has a great influence on the global weather, but in China, there will be a situation of "drought in the south and waterlogging in the north". First, there is less water vapor transport in the south, less rainfall in Jiangnan and South China, and the probability of drought is high; Second, La Nina is compulsive to the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high dimensions, which will lead to the appearance of cold air one after another. Then the temperature of cold water will increase, and La Nina will continue to increase.

This year, China's climate has just appeared "drought in the south and waterlogging in the north". In September, rainfall in the north began to increase abnormally, which had a great impact on agricultural production.

According to the analysis of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, La Nina has not been strengthened, and it is expected to reach its peak in 65438+February, and begin to weaken after 65438+ 10 the following year.

So, there is no suspense in this winter? From the existing analysis, there is a high probability of cold winter this year, but there are many factors that affect the winter weather, such as snowfall in the middle and high latitudes and Arctic sea ice. In addition, global warming has also washed cold air, so winter is not necessarily a cold winter, and it is difficult to have the extremely cold and snowy weather in 2008 again.

Even though there were two cold waves in China from 65438+February last year to 65438+1October the following year, the temperature rose immediately after the cold wave, and the average temperature from 65438+February to February the following year was still warm, so whether this year is a cold winter remains to be discussed.

However, everyone should also do a good job of keeping warm and keeping out the cold in advance. Energy supply is tight this year, and the "power cut tide" continued in September. If it is cold in winter, the heating cost will inevitably increase. It is estimated that the heating bill will rise to 2000-3000 yuan this year. what do you think?