Is weather forecast a commodity? What principles are explained?

It is a commodity because weather forecasts are useful to others or society.

Weather forecasting is based on meteorological observation (exploration) data and the application of synoptic, dynamic, and statistical principles and methods to make qualitative or quantitative predictions of the weather conditions in a certain area or place for a certain period of time in the future. Forecasting. Accurately forecasting weather has always been an important goal of atmospheric science research. The history of weather forecasting can be traced back to the earliest days of understanding the weather by looking at clouds and inferring the weather based on objects. Later, it went through single-station forecasting, weather map forecasting, and up to the present day. The stage of applying advanced detection data such as meteorological satellites and weather radars and using computers for weather forecasting. With the continuous advancement of science and technology, weather forecasting has developed rapidly.

The types of weather forecasts are based on the forecast timeliness It can be roughly divided into: nowcasting (1 to 2 hours), very short-term forecast (2 to 12 hours), short-term forecast (12 to 48 hours), medium-term forecast (3 to 10 days), long-term forecast (more than 10 days), etc. ; According to the service objects, it can be divided into: daily weather forecast and professional weather forecast (such as aviation weather forecast, etc.); according to the forecast scope, it can be roughly divided into regional forecast and site forecast, etc. Due to different service objects, in forecast items, forecast timeliness, forecast There are certain differences in terminology and other aspects.

At present, synoptic forecasting methods, statistical forecasting methods and dynamic forecasting methods are mainly used to make weather forecasts, as well as the combination of these three basic forecasting methods. Weather - statistical forecasting method, dynamic statistical forecasting method and weather - dynamic forecasting method, etc.

Synoptic forecasting method (or weather map method): It uses weather maps as the main tool, combined with satellite cloud images and radar Pictures, etc., use the principles of synoptic science to analyze and study the changing laws of weather to make weather forecasts. This method is mainly used to make short-term forecasts.

Numerical forecasting method (also known as dynamic forecasting Method): It is a method that uses large and fast electronic computers to solve the dynamic equations describing atmospheric motion to make weather forecasts. This method can be used to make short-term forecasts, as well as medium and long-term forecasts. It has also begun to be used in recent years. To do climate forecasting.

Statistical forecasting method: It uses a large amount of long-term meteorological observation data, based on the principles of probability and statistics, to find out the statistical laws of weather changes and establish a statistical model of weather changes. Method of making weather forecasts. This method is mainly used to make medium and long-term forecasts and meteorological element forecasts.

The dominant ideas of these three methods of making weather forecasts are different. Weather phenomena (or weather processes) The occurrence of weather includes inevitability and contingency. The statistical forecasting method starts from the contingency of weather phenomena (or weather processes) and believes that weather changes are a random process. The same weather changes may not necessarily occur under the same conditions. They can only Find the possibility or probability of a certain kind of weather. Synoptic methods and numerical prediction methods start from the inevitability of weather phenomena (or weather processes) and believe that weather changes are not random and satisfy certain laws (such as momentum conservation). balance, energy conservation, mass conservation, etc.), the same changes should occur under the same conditions. According to the state of the atmosphere at a certain moment, its definite state at the next moment can be deduced.

Currently, when making weather forecasts, these three methods are often used together, and weather maps, satellite and radar images, dynamic analysis and statistical analysis, numerical forecast products, etc. are comprehensively analyzed to finally make a weather forecast.