The cumulative grain import is 322.66 billion yuan, and the center of gravity of international grain and oil prices is expected to move down.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on August 7th, from June 5438 to July this year, the cumulative grain import of China was 92.078 million tons, down 7 1% year-on-year, and the cumulative grain import was 322.66 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year. Soybean imports totaled 54167,000 tons, down 5.9% year-on-year. Cumulative soybean imports reached 232.24 billion yuan, up 18. 1% year-on-year. Accumulated imports of edible vegetable oil were 2.408 million tons, down 63.6% year-on-year, and accumulated imports of edible vegetable oil were 24.82 billion yuan, down 4 1.8% year-on-year.

Si Wei, Dean of School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the decrease in China's grain imports this year was mainly due to the decrease in soybean imports, but it was still in a reasonable fluctuation range. Soybean accounts for nearly 60% of China's grain imports. In the first half of the year, China's soybean imports mainly came from Brazil, while Brazil and other Latin American countries had previously been affected by dry weather, and soybean exports declined.

The increase in China's grain imports is mainly affected by the increase in international agricultural product prices and the increase in transportation and agricultural planting costs caused by the increase in energy and fertilizer prices. Si Wei said that considering the Russian-Ukrainian grain transportation agreement, China's bumper harvest of summer grain and corn import quota policy, it is estimated that China's grain import this year will be close to last year's 65,438+65 million tons, which is unlikely to increase significantly year-on-year. As far as soybeans are concerned, considering the slight increase in domestic supply in the first half of this year and the year-on-year decrease in imports from Brazil and Argentina, it is estimated that the soybean imports from China will be less than 654.38 billion tons this year.

Why did China's grain imports drop?

Tang Chuxuan, a researcher of Guangzhou Futures Agricultural Products, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the decrease in China's grain imports and the increase in its import volume were mainly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the drought in South America. On the one hand, Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of corn, wheat and other grains. At the end of February, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the stagnation of transportation in the Black Sea ports, which reduced food exports in these areas. In addition, affected by the situation in China and Ukraine, it is expected that the global economic recession will intensify this year, inflation in the United States, Brazil and other countries is high, and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Brazilian real is at a high level for many years, which also leads to an increase in the cost of imported food in Brazil. On the other hand, in the first half of this year, soybean imports accounted for a large proportion of China's grain imports, and the dry weather in South American countries such as Brazil, the source country of soybean imports, led to the reduction of soybean production in 2002122 to varying degrees, which led to the year-on-year decline of soybean exports in these countries during the export window period from March to April this year. In the context of reducing production, the psychology of farmers in South America who are reluctant to sell and stop supplying has led to the increase of soybean export prices in these countries.

The import of agricultural products such as grain and oilseeds decreased year-on-year, and the amount increased year-on-year, which meant the increase of unit price. This is mainly affected by CF quotation and exchange rate changes. Shi, chief analyst of oil in Sino-Thai Futures Research Institute, analyzed the 2 1 Century Business Herald reporter. On the one hand, the CF quotation denominated in US dollars rose. Take soybeans as an example. In the first half of 20021,the price of new soybean contract of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) basically fluctuated around 13.5 USD/bushel. In 2022, from June to July, the price level rose to about 15 USD/bushel. On the other hand, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has changed obviously. Affected by global monetary policy changes and other factors, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was around 6.45 in the same period last year, and the exchange rate was above 6.7 after May this year.

The increase in cost and unit price further weakened the demand of domestic downstream industries. With the price rising, the inventory of channels and terminals remains at a low level, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak, which is the direct reason for the decline of upstream raw material imports. Shi pointed out.

In 202 1 year, China's grain imports reached 654.38+65 million tons, of which soybean imports reached 965180,000 tons. What is the forecast of China's grain import this year?

Previously, due to the high import price, China's demand for imported soybeans was restrained. Tang Chuxuan said that soybeans imported from China are mainly used to extract soybean meal and soybean oil, and the ratio of oil to soybean meal is about 2: 8. The downstream demand of soybean meal is mainly at the breeding end, and the largest proportion is pigs. Previously, the demand for soybean meal was weak due to the loss of breeding profits. Since the third quarter, the price of live pigs has risen, and the breeding profit has turned from loss to profit. Therefore, it is expected that the consumption demand of feed soybean will pick up in the fourth quarter. However, in view of the consideration of cost control by downstream aquaculture enterprises, alternative formulas may be considered, and the increase in soybean meal demand may be relatively limited. However, the profit of domestic oil plants is not good, and the procurement progress is slow before the fourth quarter, but the subsequent demand for procurement is still large with the favorable squeeze. On the whole, because the gap between supply and demand still exists, China's grain import demand is expected to pick up, but the extent may not be great.

The center of gravity of international grain and oil prices is expected to move down.

Since mid-2020, international commodity prices, including grain and oil, have continued to rise rapidly. In recent March, the international grain and oil prices showed a downward trend as a whole. In July, FAO's food price index decreased by 8.6% month-on-month, the fourth consecutive month of decline since it hit a record high in March, and the largest monthly decline since June 2008, 65,438+10. Vegetable oil and grain indexes fell sharply, reaching double digits.

Although the international grain and oil prices fell sharply in July, they were still higher than the same period last year. Looking forward to the market outlook, Si Wei said that the market worries caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have eased, and the major grain-producing countries have not shown signs of substantial production reduction, so the motivation for the subsequent international grain and oil price increase has obviously weakened.

Recently, in order to control prices and stabilize inflation, governments and central banks around the world have generally taken measures to tighten monetary policy. The cumulative effect of rising market interest rates makes it difficult for commodity prices, including food, to reach new highs. At the same time, with the listing of new works after the end of the third quarter, the tight supply situation will be greatly alleviated in the short term, and the market may pay more attention to whether the demand side will pick up. Based on this, Shi predicted that the international food price will be in a weak shock situation in the next 3-6 months, and the downward pressure may increase after entering the fourth quarter.

Tang Chuxuan also said that in the long run, with the gradual return to normal transportation in the Black Sea port and the strong market expectation of increasing global grain production in 2022/23, the focus of international grain and oil prices is expected to gradually move down.

It should be noted that international grain and oil prices also have some supporting factors. Shi told reporters that from the inventory point of view, the inventory of major agricultural products in producing areas and sales areas has not returned to normal levels, and the short-term inventory consumption ratio of many commodities is still in a relatively tight state. From the supply point of view, the transportation capacity of marine logistics is limited, and the smooth implementation of shipping has not returned to the ideal state. In addition, during the growth of new works in North Yuan Yue this year, the negative effects caused by abnormal weather such as high temperature and uneven drought and flood generally made the market feel a little worried about the output and output judgment of new works, and these emotions were also fed back to the FOB quotation in, establishing a certain weather premium. Affected by many factors, it is difficult for international grain and oil prices to continue to fall sharply.

As far as soybeans are concerned, it is necessary to consider the impact of weather speculation on prices in the short term.

In June, the drought index above D2 level in the United States increased, and the excellent rate of soybean in the crop progress report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) continued to decrease. As of July 3 1, the excellent and good rate of American beans was 60%. In July, the US Department of Agriculture estimated that the yield of US soybeans was 5 1.5 bushels/acre. At present, it is widely expected in the market that the August supply and demand report 12 released by the US Department of Agriculture may reduce the yield forecast of US soybeans to 5 1 bushel/acre. Some institutions also predict that soybean yield may drop to 49 bushels/acre.

If the US soybean yield forecast falls below 50 bushels/acre, it will give strong support to the price of soybean varieties in the short term. Shi pointed out.

There is still more than a month before the new soybean harvest in North America, and there are still some variables in the weather. Shi told reporters that it is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of high-frequency data such as precipitation, temperature and yield on yield, harvest area and price. The South American market is now dominated by the implementation of old contracts, and the prospect of planting new works will not be judged until 65438+February.

Judging from the scope of drought, the drought in the United States is mainly in the west and south, and the main soybean producing areas are mainly in the central and western regions. Among the main producing states, drought has a slightly greater impact on soybeans in Iowa. Tang Chuxuan said that in the short term, considering the weather speculation and the uncertainty of fixed production in mid-September, it is expected that the international soybean price will show a slight fluctuation trend; In the long run, considering that the planting area of the new soybean plant has increased, if there is no extreme weather, the supply margin will become loose, and the focus of international soybean prices will gradually move down.

At present, the balance sheet of US soybeans in 2022/23 is still in a state of tension, and the tension may be aggravated if the unit yield is greatly reduced. However, the global soybean balance sheet is relatively loose, especially if the price is still at a high level, the demand may be lower than the current market forecast. On the whole, the fundamentals of beans lack short-term significant changes, and the medium-and long-term trend direction and rhythm of unilateral prices will mainly depend on the overall trend of macro and other commodities, and more reflect their financial attributes. Shi pointed out.

As far as China's soybean market is concerned, considering the high degree of marketization of China's grain and oilseeds imports, paying attention to profits and harvesting on demand are the principles that most raw material importing enterprises continue to follow. Shi suggested that if the upstream cost remains high, enterprises can use derivative financial instruments to hedge and lock in the market risk of large price fluctuations in time.

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