When will the temperature drop in the south this year?

After reading your question, there are two aspects.

In the past week, some provinces and cities in southern China have been hit by catastrophic floods, and the water level of rivers has soared, resulting in houses and fields being flooded, landslides and railway collapses. Millions of people have been forced to move, and the number of missing and dead people has exceeded 100.

Maximum flood discharge since continuous rainfall in Guangdong reached 1998. On the evening of June 20th, dozens of subgrade collapses and landslides occurred in Guangdong province of Beijing-Kowloon Railway, and many trains were blocked or stopped. More than 3000 passengers were trapped in the car. After emergency rescue, these people have been properly resettled, but the Beijing-Kowloon Railway, the main artery of north-south traffic, has not resumed operation.

The most worrying danger appears in Wuzhou, Guangxi. Wuzhou is a famous commercial port for thousands of years, and it is also the place where major rivers in Guangxi flow into the Pearl River, so the water situation here is particularly dangerous.

In the early morning of June 22, the flood began to overflow the flood dike in Hedong District of Wuzhou City and flow backward into the urban area. The raging flood even formed a waterfall when it overflowed the flood dike. Wuzhou city has entered a state of emergency for flood fighting and emergency rescue. All primary and secondary schools are closed, the construction site is shut down, and all roads leading to Hedong District are blocked, and irrelevant vehicles and pedestrians are not allowed to enter. What is even more worrying is that according to the weather forecast issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory, there was still heavy rain or rainstorm in southeastern Guangxi and most parts of Guangdong from noon yesterday (23rd) to noon today. At present, the flood in Wuzhou has flooded the third floor of residential buildings, and it is still rising. It is estimated that the flood peak will reach 26.8m, which is 30cm higher than the flood peak of 1998. Last night, there were dangers such as piping and leakage in the flood control levee in Hexi District. Once the flood peak comes and lasts for a long time, the danger will be more serious. In Wuzhou city, tens of thousands of people from low-lying areas have moved to higher-lying areas, PLA soldiers are urgently strengthening dams, and citizens spontaneously organize to build temporary flood control dikes in an effort to maintain the areas in the city that have not been flooded.

Moderator: Through the short film just now, we noticed that this year's climate can be said to be a record-breaking. The temperature in the north is very high, exceeding 40 degrees in many places, and the flood in the south is called "once in a hundred years". Today, our studio invited Li Weijing, deputy director of the National Climate Center. Director Li, first of all, let's pay attention to Wuzhou in Guangxi mentioned in the short film. We saw that many places in the city were flooded, even to the third floor of residential buildings, and it was still rising. Why do you think there is such an abnormal climate?

Li Weijing: Recently, rainfall in South China, especially in Deheyuan, Guangdong and Wuzhou, Guangxi, is relatively concentrated. Since June 1, the rainfall in more than 20 days has exceeded 1000 ml, two to three times more than the same period last year. The reasons are as follows: firstly, the subtropical high in the western Pacific has remained stable in this place, which is more stable than the south in the same period in history. Coupled with the continuous southward movement of cold air, the interaction between the two forms strong convective weather.

Moderator: Then can you predict whether it will continue to be so hot in the north and whether it will continue to rain in the south?

Li Weijing: According to the latest forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the rainfall in the south will gradually decrease after the 25th, and there will be an obvious precipitation in the north on the 25th and 27th, which will alleviate the continuous high temperature in the north in recent days.

Moderator: Then why does this year's disaster seem more serious?

Li Weijing: At present, generally speaking, the disaster situation is more serious than that in 2004. The precipitation area is relatively large, and there is more rain.

Moderator: Then we will worry that the flood in 1998 started in South China, and then gradually expanded to the Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins, and finally developed to the Northeast. Will this flood develop like 1998?

Li Weijing: From the analysis of the current situation, the precipitation this year is not quite like the river in 1998. 1in mid-June, 1998, the rainfall intensity in the whole country was very high. The precipitation range this year is still mainly concentrated in South China, unlike 1998.

Moderator: Then what do you think should be prepared for flood control and drought relief in those places?

Li Weijing: At present, floods are mainly concentrated in South China, so we should be prepared for flood control. In addition, it is not a typhoon season yet, and South China will enter the typhoon season in July and September. At this time, we should be prepared to guard against typhoon attacks. At present, the areas with severe drought are mainly concentrated in northwest and north China.

Moderator: How accurate is our forecast of disaster weather at present?

Li Weijing: At present, the accuracy of short-term weather forecast, that is, weather forecast within three days, is still relatively high, but the accuracy of climate forecast in one month and one season is only about 60% to 70%.

Moderator: Director Li, you are a meteorologist and an expert in disaster reduction. When do you think people should pay attention to climate change?

Li Weijing: I think we should have a sense of disaster prevention all year round. At the same time, we should pay attention to the climate warning issued by the meteorological department in time and pay attention to arranging our own lives.