Rational Choice in an Uncertain World —— Psychology of Judgment and Decision-making

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World —— Psychology of Judgment and Decision-making

Make scientific decisions to make life better. "Rational Choice in an Uncertain World" won by William? James Award, in the latest edition of this award-winning book, Reid? Hasty and Robin? Dawes tells stories with easy-to-understand language and a lot of interesting stories, compares the basic theory of rational decision-making with the actual decision-making behavior, and comprehensively introduces the theory and latest research results in the field of decision-making and judgment.

Rational choice, judgment and decision-making psychology in an uncertain world

Author: [America] Reid? Reed hasty robin. Robin Dawes

Translator: Xie

Publication: People's Posts and Telecommunications Press 20 13- 10

ISBN:9787 1 15325990

Series: excellent translations of social psychology

Editor's recommendation

Life is full of uncertainty, and we are always faced with all kinds of choices and judgments. Mastering the principle of rational decision-making can undoubtedly help us improve the quality of our choices and thus improve our lives.

Based on their 30-year teaching experience in Harvard University, Northwest University, University of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon University and other famous universities, the two authors chose the latest research results of behavioral economics and cognitive psychology, combined with their own practical experience in the fields of justice, medical care and business, and used a large number of practical examples from real life to illustrate the laws, characteristics and defects of human judgment and decision-making, and theoretically discussed the roots of these manifestations.

In the latest edition of this award-winning book, Reid? Hasty and Robin? Dawes tells stories in a non-academic language and a lot of anecdotes, compares the basic theory of rational decision-making with the actual decision-making behavior, and comprehensively introduces the theory and latest research results in the field of decision-making and judgment.

Features of the new version:

The introduction and summary of the beginning and end of each chapter and the mutual reference of each chapter are more conducive to learning and reading;

A large number of examples from financial, medical, judicial and engineering fields make this book more vivid;

The descriptive psychological model that attaches importance to and highlights decision-making complements the previous model that only emphasizes norms and rationality. Expected utility theory? Lack;

In order to better balance the three main research directions: cognitive psychological analysis of thinking process and heuristic, descriptive algebraic model of judgment and decision-making process and rational model of decision-making.

Content recommendation

A large number of behavioral studies reveal that there are systematic limitations in human thinking process. People are often not completely rational. On the contrary, various cognitive defects, heuristics and inertial thinking determine most of our judgments and decisions.

Red? Hasty and Robin? Dawes tried his best to introduce the basic theory and the latest research results in the field of judgment and decision-making with life-like language and real examples. This book can be divided into six parts: chapter 1-2 introduces the history of judgment and decision-making, chapter 3-7 summarizes the psychological research on judgment, chapter 8 discusses the relationship between rationality and uncertainty, chapter 9- 10 discusses the problem of preference and choice, and chapter1-/kloc-0. The appendix briefly introduces the relevant knowledge of probability theory.

The author's language is concise and rigorous, and a large number of the latest research results and findings are selected to make appropriate evaluation and analysis. This fully shows that the author is? Judgment and decision? This accumulation also reflects the author's overall grasp of this research field. This book is suitable for experts and scholars in the fields of psychology and behavioral science, as well as for those who are right? Decision-making judgment problem? Interested readers read.

Brief introduction of the author

Reid? ReidHastie graduated from the University of California, San Diego and Yale University, and began his academic work at Harvard University, actively seeking opportunities for off-campus research, and conducting medical and legal decision-making research in hospitals and courts. His research interest lies in the application of cognitive psychology methods and theories in judgment and decision-making. He devoted his life to the study of realistic situations, including medical decision-making, legal decision-making, weather forecast, consumption and commercial and financial decision-making.

Robin. Robyn M. Dawes received a bachelor's degree in philosophy from Harvard University in 1958, and then entered the Department of Clinical Psychology of the University of Michigan. Two years later, he entered the Department of Mathematical Psychology with interest in behavioral decision-making, social interaction and attitude measurement (1963 received his doctorate) and completed his postgraduate education in mathematics. 1In the autumn of 985, he transferred to Carnegie Mellon University and became a professor of psychology in the Department of Social and Decision Science. He is now a professor at CharlesJ J. Queenan, Jr. Dawes has published 150 papers and 6 books.

catalogue

Chapter 65438 +0 Thinking and Policy

Chapter 2 What is decision-making?

Chapter III General Framework of Judgment

Chapter Four Basic Judgment Strategies: Anchoring and Adjustment

Chapter V Heuristic Judgment

Chapter VI Judgment Based on Interpretation

Chapter VII Accidents and Causality

Chapter VIII Rational Thinking? Uncertainty?

Chapter 9 Consequence Assessment: Basic Preferences

Chapter 10 From Preference to Choice

Chapter 1 1 rational decision theory

12 Chapter Descriptive Decision Theory

Chapter 13 What's the next step? The new direction of judgment and decision-making research

Chapter 14 praise uncertainty

Basic principles of accessory probability theory

media comments

Human beings live in a world full of uncertainty. Even though the sixth scientific and technological revolution is coming to us, we still don't know when and where an earthquake will happen on the earth that gave birth to our life, and we still can't predict the arrival and scope of the financial crisis or H7N9 avian influenza. In order to survive, mankind must adapt to this world full of unknowns and uncertainties. After the Wenchuan earthquake, Nature published an editorial "Prepare for the Unknown", calling for? Should the scientific community fully meet the challenge of future uncertainty? .

? How do humans make judgments and decisions under uncertain conditions? This is a scientific problem with great prospects and significance. As mentioned in this book, the road to rationality is long and difficult. Nowadays, human beings have experienced hundreds of thousands of years of evolution. Why can humans successfully complete foraging, ensure safety, choose spouses and protect future generations? Survival mission? It is precisely because we have a unique skill to make good, sustainable and adaptable decisions through the process of natural selection.

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